I am going to wait to bet any sides. Both games are in the same spot where the line is a halfway number. Meaning it is between 3 and 3.5 or 6.5 and 7. My only interest at 3 or 3.5 is on KC. The line will not drop below 3 so I am in no rush to make a bet. I am not sure what I want to do with the 49ers game, but I don’t have to rush here either. People are going to bet both sides in this one. Detroit bettors like having seven points in their pocket, they know Deebo might not play and aren’t sold on Purdy. The line drops to 6.5 and people start betting San Fran because they think the 49ers win by 7 a bunch and want to win on that number instead of pushing. They also aren’t sold on Goff, Campbell’s decision making and/or the Lions defense. Bottom line is you should be able to make the bet you want to make on Sunday because these lines aren’t moving off the numbers I mentioned.
Today: 1-0/YTD: 122-98, +30.26
My bet looked very bleak at the half. A monster second half from San Francisco saved me and presumably a lot of other people. Huge 27-7 swing. Campbell got a little too aggressive and cost his team. Granted, blowing a 17 point lead is on everyone, but Detroit could have kicked a field goal at least once and needed a TD on their final drive for overtime. With that said, I am thrilled with the result. 49ers/Chiefs is a better game in my opinion. One more game to go!
My bet looked very bleak at the half. A monster second half from San Francisco saved me and presumably a lot of other people. Huge 27-7 swing. Campbell got a little too aggressive and cost his team. Granted, blowing a 17 point lead is on everyone, but Detroit could have kicked a field goal at least once and needed a TD on their final drive for overtime. With that said, I am thrilled with the result. 49ers/Chiefs is a better game in my opinion. One more game to go!
February 11th
Purdy under 31.5 pass attempts (-150), 1*
Purdy over 0.5 interceptions (-140), 1*
Purdy under 54.5 pass yards in the first quarter (-110), 1*
Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions (-115), 1*
Over 2.5 players to have a pass attempt (+165), 1*
Kittle under 49.5 (-120), 1*
Juszczyk over 4.5 (-115), 1*
Kelce over 70.5 (-125), 1*
Kelce to win MVP (+1200), 1*
Samuel over 16.5 rushing yards (-120), 2*
Butker over 1.5 field goals made (-120), 2*
Chiefs to make the longest field goal (-110), 1*
49ers longest punt over 57.5 (-110), 1*
Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions (-120), 1*
Elijah Mitchell over 1.5 rush attempts (-120), 1*
Here is my entire prop sheet for tomorrow's game. Most of these are half unit bets, except for the Deebo over and Butker over. I have had a good season and want to be smart with how I bet. Not that I will lose all these bets, but I want to minimize risk to some extent. I will probably have a bet on the side or total tomorrow. GL
Purdy under 31.5 pass attempts (-150), 1*
Purdy over 0.5 interceptions (-140), 1*
Purdy under 54.5 pass yards in the first quarter (-110), 1*
Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions (-115), 1*
Over 2.5 players to have a pass attempt (+165), 1*
Kittle under 49.5 (-120), 1*
Juszczyk over 4.5 (-115), 1*
Kelce over 70.5 (-125), 1*
Kelce to win MVP (+1200), 1*
Samuel over 16.5 rushing yards (-120), 2*
Butker over 1.5 field goals made (-120), 2*
Chiefs to make the longest field goal (-110), 1*
49ers longest punt over 57.5 (-110), 1*
Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions (-120), 1*
Elijah Mitchell over 1.5 rush attempts (-120), 1*
Here is my entire prop sheet for tomorrow's game. Most of these are half unit bets, except for the Deebo over and Butker over. I have had a good season and want to be smart with how I bet. Not that I will lose all these bets, but I want to minimize risk to some extent. I will probably have a bet on the side or total tomorrow. GL
49ers ML (-120), 2*
49ers/Chiefs under 47.5 (-110), 2*
This game feels like 24-20 one way or the other. The Chiefs offense has not been explosive and their defense has been excellent, probably their best unit. Both of these coaches are on the conservative side, particularly Shanahan. I think you will see these coaches take points early, as opposed to going for it constantly like Dan Campbell would. Joe Thuney being out for KC is a big loss and the 49ers should have success getting to Mahomes. They might not pile up sacks, but they should at least move him off his spot and force him to make tough plays or throw the ball away. As for the side, I think San Fran is better. They have more playmakers on offense and defense. Of course I am worried about Mahomes. I also acknowledge that I trust Butker more then I do Moody. I am sure Kelce will have an impact on this game. The data and talent level says to bet the 49ers. People aren’t betting KC because they think they are better. They are betting them because they have Mahomes or they think the NFL wants the Chiefs to win so Kelce and Taylor Swift can be on the field smooching after the game. The NFL has gotten everything the need from Taylor Swift and her fans. They will all be watching, we will see her plenty in the Chiefs box and in commercials. At this point, it is about the players and I am backing the eye test, talent level and statistics that tell me the 49ers win this game. This is a coin flip game and truthfully, I would only be betting the under if this wasn’t the Super Bowl. But it is and I will put my money on who I believe is the best team. Good luck everyone!
49ers/Chiefs under 47.5 (-110), 2*
This game feels like 24-20 one way or the other. The Chiefs offense has not been explosive and their defense has been excellent, probably their best unit. Both of these coaches are on the conservative side, particularly Shanahan. I think you will see these coaches take points early, as opposed to going for it constantly like Dan Campbell would. Joe Thuney being out for KC is a big loss and the 49ers should have success getting to Mahomes. They might not pile up sacks, but they should at least move him off his spot and force him to make tough plays or throw the ball away. As for the side, I think San Fran is better. They have more playmakers on offense and defense. Of course I am worried about Mahomes. I also acknowledge that I trust Butker more then I do Moody. I am sure Kelce will have an impact on this game. The data and talent level says to bet the 49ers. People aren’t betting KC because they think they are better. They are betting them because they have Mahomes or they think the NFL wants the Chiefs to win so Kelce and Taylor Swift can be on the field smooching after the game. The NFL has gotten everything the need from Taylor Swift and her fans. They will all be watching, we will see her plenty in the Chiefs box and in commercials. At this point, it is about the players and I am backing the eye test, talent level and statistics that tell me the 49ers win this game. This is a coin flip game and truthfully, I would only be betting the under if this wasn’t the Super Bowl. But it is and I will put my money on who I believe is the best team. Good luck everyone!
Isiah Pacheco longest reception under 10.5 (-125), 1*
Chiefs under 2.5 sacks (-120), 1*
Nick Bolton under 8.5 tackles + assists (-115), 1*
Tashaun Gipson under 4.5 tackles + assists (-150), 1*
49ers over 26.5 rush attempts (-130), 1*
A few of these props tie in with how I think this game will play out. I expect San Fran to be run heavy, which is why I already bet Deebo’s over and Purdy’s pass attempts under. I don’t expect either qb to be sacked three times, but I think it is less likely it happens to Purdy due to the style the 49ers want to play. With McKinnon back, he should take away snaps from Pacheco in the passing game. The tackle props are mispriced in my opinion. Gipson should be 3.5 and Bolton should be 7.5. I will probably add 1-2 more later, but this is pretty much it. My prop cup has just about runneth over.
Chiefs under 2.5 sacks (-120), 1*
Nick Bolton under 8.5 tackles + assists (-115), 1*
Tashaun Gipson under 4.5 tackles + assists (-150), 1*
49ers over 26.5 rush attempts (-130), 1*
A few of these props tie in with how I think this game will play out. I expect San Fran to be run heavy, which is why I already bet Deebo’s over and Purdy’s pass attempts under. I don’t expect either qb to be sacked three times, but I think it is less likely it happens to Purdy due to the style the 49ers want to play. With McKinnon back, he should take away snaps from Pacheco in the passing game. The tackle props are mispriced in my opinion. Gipson should be 3.5 and Bolton should be 7.5. I will probably add 1-2 more later, but this is pretty much it. My prop cup has just about runneth over.
Today: 13-9/YTD: 135-107, +32.36
What an incredible game. I can’t believe the 49ers lost the game despite the fact that the Chiefs were never leading the game when they began a possession. Mahomes is officially that guy is this generation. It was Montana, then Brady and now Mahomes. We will have to see if anyone can knock him off the top of the mountain. Thank you to everyone who participated in this thread. I had a good season and always enjoy contributing in the forum. I have thread in the nba, college hoops and nhl sections. Feel free to stop by anytime. I am profitable in all three right now. Good luck the rest of the year and I will be back in August to do this thing again.
What an incredible game. I can’t believe the 49ers lost the game despite the fact that the Chiefs were never leading the game when they began a possession. Mahomes is officially that guy is this generation. It was Montana, then Brady and now Mahomes. We will have to see if anyone can knock him off the top of the mountain. Thank you to everyone who participated in this thread. I had a good season and always enjoy contributing in the forum. I have thread in the nba, college hoops and nhl sections. Feel free to stop by anytime. I am profitable in all three right now. Good luck the rest of the year and I will be back in August to do this thing again.
Futures:
Ravens under 10.5 (-120), 2*
Patriots over 6.5 (-140), 2*
Commanders over 6.5 (+100), 2*
Bills to win the Super Bowl (+900), 2*
Packers to win the NFC North (+400), 2*
Mike Tomlin to win Coach of the Year (+2000), 1*
Nick Chubb to win OPOY (+1800), 1*
Bears under 7.5 (+110), 2*
Packers over 7.5 (-110), 2*
Eagles under 11.5 (-115), 2*
Steelers over 8.5 (-140), 2*
Cowboys to win the NFC East (+190), 2*
49ers to win the NFC West (-190), 2*
YTD: 141-114, +33.16
I forgot to include my futures from before the season began. I ended up profiting 0.8 units which pretty much made it a wash. Still, I want to make sure my record and numbers are accurate to have full transparency.
Ravens under 10.5 (-120), 2*
Patriots over 6.5 (-140), 2*
Commanders over 6.5 (+100), 2*
Bills to win the Super Bowl (+900), 2*
Packers to win the NFC North (+400), 2*
Mike Tomlin to win Coach of the Year (+2000), 1*
Nick Chubb to win OPOY (+1800), 1*
Bears under 7.5 (+110), 2*
Packers over 7.5 (-110), 2*
Eagles under 11.5 (-115), 2*
Steelers over 8.5 (-140), 2*
Cowboys to win the NFC East (+190), 2*
49ers to win the NFC West (-190), 2*
YTD: 141-114, +33.16
I forgot to include my futures from before the season began. I ended up profiting 0.8 units which pretty much made it a wash. Still, I want to make sure my record and numbers are accurate to have full transparency.
