BoSox 2023-2024 NFL Season Long Thread

[BoSox04]

Six Point Teaser: Texans +8.5 & Cowboys -1 (-120), 2*
Bills/Steelers under 38 (-110), 1*

I still believe in this Bills under. Obviously, I wish the game didn’t get moved to Monday. With that said, it will still be windy and not great conditions on Monday. If you have not bet the under, I would put a full unit on it. I already have a unit on under 36.5, so I’m just tossing a half unit on under 38. GL

 

[cashflow50]

Why is this game postponed and not the KC MIA game which is a lot worse conditions. Seems like nfl wants bills in

 

[BoSox04]

Why is this game postponed and not the KC MIA game which is a lot worse conditions. Seems like nfl wants bills in

I guess because they don’t want people driving in bad conditions more then they are worried about people being outside in very cold conditions.

 

[BoSox04]

January 13th

Browns -2.5 (-110), 2*
Six Point Teaser: Texans +8.5 & Cowboys -1 (-120), 2*
Two Team Parlay: Chiefs ML & Cowboys ML (-118), 2*

I am consolidating my bets for today into one post. I’m not adding anything, just making it easier to find what I bet.

 

[BoSox04]

Dolphins/Chiefs under 43.5 (-110), 2*

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 1-1/YTD: 114-90, +31.42

My parlay with Dallas and KC as well as my teaser with Houston and Dallas are still alive. I haven’t given much thought to betting the Packers +7 as a bit of a hedge or middle opportunity. I feel pretty confident about Dallas winning that game. If I go that route, I will update tomorrow. I am more then likely going to bet the Rams +3. That line isn’t going to move to +2.5, so I’m not in a rush to place the bet. Maybe the Lions take some money and I can get +3.5 with LA. I do expect there to be 1-2 upsets this round, as it is rare to see the favorites run the table in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

 

[BoSox04]

Packers/Cowboys over 51 (-112), 2*

Adding this to my Cowboys bets. 51.5 is fine too. I want to win with 52. If the Packers go to 7.5, I will bet them. Otherwise, I am waiting to see if the Rams go to 3.5. I will bet them at 3. I might also bet the under in that game. I know Detroit’s secondary gives up big plays and the Rams defense isn’t elite. 53 is a lot. They need 8 touchdowns or 7 touchdowns and two field goals to hit that over. What if Campbell goes for it a couple times on 4th down and doesn’t get it? I think Dallas and Green Bay calls for a shootout more then the Lions game. I will update in a few hours.

 

[BoSox04]

Rams/Lions under 53 (-110), 2*

I am going to wait another half hour to see if I can get +3.5 with the Rams.

 

[BoSox04]

Rams +3.5 (-120), 2*

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 3-2/YTD: 117-92, +32.66

I still turned a profit today despite the Cowboys losing. I have the unders in both games tomorrow. I probably wouldn’t bet the total in the Eagles game now. 43 is a fair number. I’m not sure what I would do with the Bills total. I already have two bets on the under because I thought the game was going to be played today. Obviously, those are in trouble now, although I still believe we could see a low scoring game. I am not sure if I will bet either side. I would only bet the Steelers at 10.

 

[BoSox04]

I am not going to add anything for the early game. I am not happy that I bet the under twice now that the game has been moved. But I can’t really hedge, so I am going to live with the results. Hopefully, the Steelers get bad Josh Allen or the Bulls defense shuts them down. I have the under tonight, I will also add a play on the side in a few hours.

 

[BoSox04]

January 15th

Eagles -2.5 (-125), 2*

This line is available on DK. I was hoping to get -2.5 in this game. I already bet under 44 a week ago, so this is it for me in this game. I did bet some props, which I will share, but won’t be graded as official bets. Smith over 66.5 and Goedert over 47.5 were my receiving props. Other then that, I bet against Mayfield about four different ways. Under yards, completions, pass TD’s and over 0.5 interceptions. He is not healthy and if I believe this game is going under and Philly will cover, Mayfield shouldn’t have a good game.

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 1-3/YTD: 118-95, +28.86

Rotten way to finish out the first round. Got dealt a bad break with the Bills game being moved. Made a bad bet on the Eagles. Fortunately, they were so bad that I hit the under and avoided going 0-4. Still positive 14 units on the season which is solid. I have a teaser I am going to bet for the divisional round which I will put in my next post.

 

[BoSox04]

January 21st

Six Point Teaser: Chiefs +8.5 & Lions pick (-120), 2*

The ability to get the Chiefs at +8.5 and force Buffalo to win by two possessions is too good to pass up. These two teams are very even and I’m not going to get fooled by Buffalo just because they took care of business against the worst team in the playoffs. The Chiefs defense is good enough to keep them in the game even if Mahomes struggles. As for Detroit, I believe they are very likely to win this game. By teasing them, you don’t have to worry about the margin of victory. Good for Tampa that they beat Philly, but that was a team in disarray. Detroit is a team who believes in each other and is playing with confidence. Tampa has to go on the road for this one and I think this is where their run ends. I have one other bet I am considering that I might bet shortly. If not, I will update when I do.

 

[BoSox04]

Lions -6 (-112), 2*

I think the Lions win this game by 7+ very often. Philly was a team in disarray. The Lions defense can be had from time to time, but they aren’t missing tackles and doing some of the things we saw tonight from the Eagles. The Lions run defense is solid and should make Tampa pretty one dimensional. Detroit has guys who can beat a blitz and get open quickly, like St. Brown and Gibbs, which is vital against Todd Bowles coaches teams. I am in twice on Detroit this week. I would bet anything under 7 on Detroit.

 

[BoSox04]

January 20th

Texans/Ravens over 43.5 (-115), 2*

I was considering a seven point teaser with the Ravens and 49ers. Maybe try to hit a middle and take Houston at +9.5. Now that the 49ers line is 10, that’s not going to happen. I really like this over. Both these quarterbacks should be able to make plays against the opposing secondary. Houston has trouble covering opposing tight ends, which is one reason I bet Likely over 37.5 receiving yards. The other prop I bet is Lamar over 51.5 rushing yards. He averages 94 rushing yards per game in the playoffs. We know he is going to run. If he breaks a big one, this should have no trouble going over. I will update later with any bets I make in the 49ers game. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Packers/49ers over 50.5 (-110), 2*

I guess I will play another over. What can go wrong.

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 1-1/YTD: 119-96, +28.66

January 21st

Chiefs/Bills under 45.5 (-110), 2*
Lions -6 (-112), 2*
Six Point Teaser: Lions pick & Chiefs +8.5 (-120), 2*

Adding the Bills under to my card. I like the under on anything 45.5 or more. 45 would probably be a half unit. If the Lions win and my teaser is still alive, there’s a good chance I will bet the Bills -2.5. Having a middle on Buffalo between 3-8 is a pretty good spot to be, as they will win this game by or possession a good amount of the time. Yes I’m potentially costing myself money if the Chiefs win, but I’m also breaking even if the Bills win by two possessions. I do think Buffalo wins this game, however the ability to get KC at +8.5 was very valuable and something I couldn’t pass up.

I lean over in the Lions game. I would have needed 49 or less to play the over. I want to win or push with 49, not need 50+ to win the bet. Unless the total drops, that’s going to be a pass for me. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Bills -2.5 (-110), 2*

Good start to the day. I’m going to look for a middle in this game, as I explained in the above post. If the Bills can’t beat Mahomes at home with diminished weapons, I don’t know when they are going to do it. I feel really good about the under, but that’s why they play the game. Let’s close out the weekend strong.

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 2-2/YTD: 121-98, +28.26

That second quarter in the Chiefs game blew up the under. I guess I shouldn’t have went for the middle, although it was very possible the Bills could have won that game by 3 or 4.

I think I am going to make a bet on the Chiefs +3.5. I would only bet the dogs at these numbers.