Tuesday, August 11
Washington (-1.5) -101
Chicago Cubs -103
San Francisco/Houston OVER 9.5 (-106)
Ariz/Col trigger an OVER play (Game, F5, 1st Inn Yes). However, Kyle Freeland O/U is 11-31-1 at home. That is 74% UNDER when he pitches at home. When the total is 11.5 or less, he's 6-23 nearly 80% Under. I'll just pass that game, and if it does go Over no problem. I'm also passing Cincinnati, they fit a couple systems, but the board suggests KC is the play.
SF/Hou fits a nice system based on walks allowed and opponent's walks drawn. Nats a team off a blowout win vs that same team that doesn't score a lot.
The above 3 plays are system plays. When we get closer to game time, around 3:30pm, I'll see what the board looks like. These are the games I'm keeping an eye on:
KC: 38% bets, 58% money. Line drop +169 to +158
Atlanta: 31%/49%, line drop +142 /+123
Milwaukee: 35%/74%, +110/-108
Arizona: 33%/61%, +105/-106
San Francisco: 36%/35%, +191/+160
San Diego: 25%/23%, +154/+145
Atlanta +123, Arizona -106 are definite plays. The others are possible