no way he's hitting over 65% over 5 years with today's numbers.
if he's betting into at -110 when W/A is -130 then he might hit 60% but that's not even close to a true 60% when weighted according to ROI.
I have a database of NFL halftime numbers that cover over 12 years. It's complete with opening and closing numbers from over 10 books. Like I said, I'm not trying to bust anyone's balls, but I am feeling the need to separate reality from...ya gotta have enough respect for the peeps to refrain from leading them down a path promising +60% without proper analysis.
The bottom line is this: even if and that's a big if, he was hitting over 60% that doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. THE SAMPLE SIZE is too small. There is more variance on handicappers' performance in the NFL than probably any other sport, there's not that many games. It's why you have a guy hit 65% one year, then follow up with 42% the next. People can bet on two or three teams that cover over 60% of the time that year, kinda get lucky. Then reality sets in b/c they don't understand value.
