Bettor Lays $40,000 On Tennessee ML (-1300) vs Appalachian St

[HarryCaray]

Im having a little trouble understanding what you're saying there. Wheres the cutoff? Would you risk 80k to win 3k? 150k to win 3k? Bottom line is shit happens and it almost did to the guy who played Tenn. He was almost fucked and honestly that game should have gone the other way. Had that D1 fg kicker made a 42 yard fg that guy would have lost 40 grand. Add 10 for end zone and 7 yards back from line of scrimmage so essentially he missed a fg from the 25 yard line. Most kickers make that fg.

There was a dude down in MLB forum called MyPeoples who got drilled daily on his -200 bets. This was -1300 which is 6 1/2 times worse than that. Everyone knows you will go broke playing -200 lines, but playing -1300 is smart? ummm no.

What he's saying is that you can't just arbitrarily proclaim that "it's not smart" and that the risk/reward isn't there, just because it's risking a big number to win a small number. Whether or not it is smart is based on the true probability that the bet wins relative to the line.

To say that risking 40k to win 3k is NEVER +ev, just because "shit happens", is shortsighted.

Value comes in all forms, even large ML favorites. You cannot definitively say that no -1300 bets ever have value.

We don't know the true percentages on that Tennessee game. If they played that game 100 times, maybe here is a breakdown of results:

87 times Tenn wins easily
9 times Tenn wins a very close game
4 times App St wins SU

And maybe we just landed in category B. If that was in fact the true distribution (which of course we'll never know for sure), this was a +EV bet at that price.

We do not know you will go broke playing -200 lines. You will go broke playing the WRONG -200 lines. If you played only -200 lines where the favorite has a true 70% chance to win, you are printing money.

There are lots of things in this world I would lay -1300 on that would be great bets for me.

What if someone offered me -1300 that the Cubs would win at least one more regular season game this season? Obviously that's like 99.9% to happen, so it would be a great bet for me. When there is value, good gamblers exploit it. Even if it is a high risk to gain a low reward - that is irrelevant, except for bankroll management considerations.

 

[Bourn]

^

Yeah I get that. I almost wrote yesterday that is someone gave me -1300 that Rhonda Rousey would beat up GB in a fight I'd take it. I understand it's all about probability and getting value. My point was that opening day with a Tenn team we have no idea about against an opponent that has upset big teams isn't very risky. And I believe if you go through the season picking out -1300 ML's risking 40k to win 3k you just aren't that smart. Maybe someone is awesome at hitting 11-12 -1300 lines in a row. But it only takes one loss to wipe out your whole winnings and then some. There are better ways to gamble imo. That's all I'm trying to say.

 

[HarryCaray]

^

Yeah I get that. I almost wrote yesterday that is someone gave me -1300 that Rhonda Rousey would beat up GB in a fight I'd take it. I understand it's all about probability and getting value. My point was that opening day with a Tenn team we have no idea about against an opponent that has upset big teams isn't very risky. And I believe if you go through the season picking out -1300 ML's risking 40k to win 3k you just aren't that smart. Maybe someone is awesome at hitting 11-12 -1300 lines in a row. But it only takes one loss to wipe out your whole winnings and then some. There are better ways to gamble imo. That's all I'm trying to say.

Don't disagree with any of what you say.

 

[Bourn]

And for the record that guy posting -200 lines did pretty well. I've always said gambling is about picking winners. If you can pick winners you can get yourself out of a lot of bad habits. I.e. Bad lines , bad money management, chasing. Although if you do all those things right And pick winners you're ahead of the game.

 

[Bourn]

^

Yeah I get that. I almost wrote yesterday that is someone gave me -1300 that Rhonda Rousey would beat up GB in a fight I'd take it. I understand it's all about probability and getting value. My point was that opening day with a Tenn team we have no idea about against an opponent that has upset big teams isn't very risky. And I believe if you go through the season picking out -1300 ML's risking 40k to win 3k you just aren't that smart. Maybe someone is awesome at hitting 11-12 -1300 lines in a row. But it only takes one loss to wipe out your whole winnings and then some. There are better ways to gamble imo. That's all I'm trying to say.

i meant is very risky.