Bettor Lays $40,000 On Tennessee ML (-1300) vs Appalachian St

[TomGshotput]

It's the fact he risked 40k to get 3k. That's DUMB! If Tenn won by 60 it's still dumb.

So you knew what Tennessee's chances were before the game even started? If Tennessee had a 93% chance or better, laying -1300 was a profitable bet long term. Which seems like a smart bet to me (actual amount to risk would depends on how much money would be left over to continue making more profitable bets on the 7% chance in loses).

If someone goes up to a roulette wheel and bets $3,000 on 17 black, is the casino making a DUMB bet by risking $105,000 to win only $3k?

 

[terps1313]

So you knew what Tennessee's chances were before the game even started? If Tennessee had a 93% chance or better, laying -1300 was a profitable bet long term. Which seems like a smart bet to me (actual amount to risk would depends on how much money would be left over to continue making more profitable bets on the 7% chance in loses).

If someone goes up to a roulette wheel and bets $3,000 on 17 black, is the casino making a DUMB bet by risking $105,000 to win only $3k?

Exactly, well said

 

[99steak]

^^ The difference between the casino roulette bet on black and this tennessee betis that the 93% chance given to tennessee is just an estimate, its not true odds but in the roullette black bet the odds are exact and true. You cannot compare apples to oranges.

 

[Bourn]

So you knew what Tennessee's chances were before the game even started? If Tennessee had a 93% chance or better, laying -1300 was a profitable bet long term. Which seems like a smart bet to me (actual amount to risk would depends on how much money would be left over to continue making more profitable bets on the 7% chance in loses).

If someone goes up to a roulette wheel and bets $3,000 on 17 black, is the casino making a DUMB bet by risking $105,000 to win only $3k?

You changed my mind. Risking 40k to win 3k is very smart.

 

[niltes]

in the right scenario this (the ml bet) could be a great bet.
I doubt that the first week of CFB would qualify as making
this a great bet.

in regards to horse racing bridge jumping, doing this
is a long run losing bet. one can increase their chances
of winning by not betting fillies (zenyatta proved to be exception),
sticking to 5 entity fields, and not betting speed horses.
also mules, dogs, and Standardbreds are more consistent
than thouroughbreds. one of my best alltime bets was
betting a 3 horse entry in a five horse entity Standardbred
stake race. they were the first, second, and fourth best horses
in the race. very easy money.

 

[TomGshotput]

You changed my mind. Risking 40k to win 3k is very smart.

Everyone agrees risking $105,000 to win $3,000 can be very smart on the right game, so you are definitely correct that risking only $40k can sometimes be smart. Was it in this case? Only way to say for sure is if you had a good idea of the true odds before kickoff. I usually have no idea other than to look either at the market price or the guys who have done so well at this in the past they now have enough money that they can bet $40,000 on one game.

 

[TomGshotput]

The difference between the casino roulette bet on black and this tennessee betis that the 93% chance given to tennessee is just an estimate, its not true odds but in the roullette black bet the odds are exact and true. You cannot compare apples to oranges.

Very good point. Which is the reason we should generally use something other than maximally aggressive betting strategy (ie fractional Kelly). Perhaps the person who made this bet was doing exactly that. This game may have called for an $80,000 bet based on his estimated edge. If someone has won enough in the past to reach the point of being able to bet that much, I will always accept that they know more than I do

 

[terps1313]

Everyone agrees risking $105,000 to win $3,000 can be very smart on the right game, so you are definitely correct that risking only $40k can sometimes be smart. Was it in this case? Only way to say for sure is if you had a good idea of the true odds before kickoff. I usually have no idea other than to look either at the market price or the guys who have done so well at this in the past they now have enough money that they can bet $40,000 on one game.

Nothing against him but he clearly has the mindset of most simple minded gamblers and doesn't understand simple math. All he sees is big number to win small number equals bad bet. If he truly believed this bet was as bad as he claimed then clearly App St was a great +ev play. So this guy who made such an idiotic wager of 40K to win 3K would have made a great play betting 40K to win 400,000K give or take on App St.

 

[SmallDaddy]

A lot of big MLs went down SU this week. And a few more came really close

 

[Bourn]

You changed my mind. Risking 40k to win 3k is very smart.

This is sarcasm. It's not a smart bet at all. The risk reward isn't there.

 

[pocketrockets]

This is sarcasm. It's not a smart bet at all. The risk reward isn't there.

+1

the thrill of winning 3k after risking 40k will never compare to the suffering of losing 40k, when trying to win 40K

 

[Illini]

He didn't make out with 3k. He had to replace underwear, and I bet the dry cleaning bill is huge when you have to have them remove shit.

 

[ChrisParadise]

+1

the thrill of winning 3k after risking 40k will never compare to the suffering of losing 40k, when trying to win 40K

Who cares about thrills. The guy has 3k in his pocket. He wins.

Whether its -110 or -1110 if you think theres value you take it.

If i could get Arietta at -150 over the Brewers id take it every time. If he wins 1-0 or 10-0 he still wins

Unless any of you bet app st ML you cant say it was a bad bet.

 

[slapshot]

If it wins does anyone thinks he lays 40k to win 3k tomorrow?

43K on Bama

Lol

.

No news of another bet guess he hadn't recovered in time for Bama

 

[Bourn]

Everyone agrees risking $105,000 to win $3,000 can be very smart on the right game, so you are definitely correct that risking only $40k can sometimes be smart. Was it in this case? Only way to say for sure is if you had a good idea of the true odds before kickoff. I usually have no idea other than to look either at the market price or the guys who have done so well at this in the past they now have enough money that they can bet $40,000 on one game.

 

[TomGshotput]

You changed my mind. Risking 40k to win 3k is very smart.

This is sarcasm. It's not a smart bet at all. The risk reward isn't there.

How are the casinos and sportsbooks able to stay in business making so many not smart bets where they risk even more than $40,000 for even smaller than $3,000 payoffs? How can we be so certain the risk-reward is there for them when they take the action, but not this guy when he does it?

 

[Bourn]

How are the casinos and sportsbooks able to stay in business making so many not smart bets where they risk even more than $40,000 for even smaller than $3,000 payoffs? How can we be so certain the risk-reward is there for them when they take the action, but not this guy when he does it?

Im having a little trouble understanding what you're saying there. Wheres the cutoff? Would you risk 80k to win 3k? 150k to win 3k? Bottom line is shit happens and it almost did to the guy who played Tenn. He was almost fucked and honestly that game should have gone the other way. Had that D1 fg kicker made a 42 yard fg that guy would have lost 40 grand. Add 10 for end zone and 7 yards back from line of scrimmage so essentially he missed a fg from the 25 yard line. Most kickers make that fg.

There was a dude down in MLB forum called MyPeoples who got drilled daily on his -200 bets. This was -1300 which is 6 1/2 times worse than that. Everyone knows you will go broke playing -200 lines, but playing -1300 is smart? ummm no.

 

[pocketrockets]

Im having a little trouble understanding what you're saying there. Wheres the cutoff? Would you risk 80k to win 3k? 150k to win 3k? Bottom line is shit happens and it almost did to the guy who played Tenn. He was almost fucked and honestly that game should have gone the other way. Had that D1 fg kicker made a 42 yard fg that guy would have lost 40 grand. Add 10 for end zone and 7 yards back from line of scrimmage so essentially he missed a fg from the 25 yard line. Most kickers make that fg.

There was a dude down in MLB forum called MyPeoples who got drilled daily on his -200 bets. This was -1300 which is 6 1/2 times worse than that. Everyone knows you will go broke playing -200 lines, but playing -1300 is smart? ummm no.

+100

 

[Bourn]

 

[TomGshotput]

Wheres the cutoff? Would you risk 80k to win 3k? 150k to win 3k?

It's very easy to know where the cutoff should be: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value If it's positive make the bet, if it's negative, don't. (Exact amount should follow Kelly Criterion or something similar that maximizes value while minimizing going bust)

I have no clue if -1300 on Tennessee was a good bet or not. But if someone else has won enough from betting on sports so that they are now able to lay $40,000 on it, their opinion means a lot more than any of ours

There was a dude down in MLB forum called MyPeoples who got drilled daily on his -200 bets.

Yet everytime we make +200 bets the sportsbook themselves are laying -200, why aren't they going broke?