Betting both teams -1.5 runs - profitable?

[Tulsa]

:monsters- :monsters-

Captain Carl, I wouldn't put any cash on them. We're just seeing if we can do anything here....

but I CAN'T BELIEVE the JINX OF MY POST one hour ago!! HOUSTON, YOU ARE TRULY ********'S and that is too true.!!!!! DAMNNNNNN....this one was a sure winner. You let them score three and then four and here we are and we will be very very fortunate if this one comes through for us. wow. tulsa

 

[CaptainCarl]

Tulsa,
12 of the 14 games yesterday would have showed profit under your system. Good luck today.

 

[Purewinners]

this system will wipeout your bankroll.

The average is about +150

So if you bet $100 on each runline...your profit would be $50 assuming the game doesnt land on 1 run decision.

So you are betting $200 to win 50.

So basically you are betting on a -400 moneyline! about 29% of the game ends in a 1 game decision. So you will easily lose money!!!!! Keep in mind that you dont always get +150. sometimes you might get +120 and +170...and if the lower odd keeps winning you would lose even more!!!

 

[CaptainCarl]

this system will wipeout your bankroll.

The average is about +150

So if you bet $100 on each runline...your profit would be $50 assuming the game doesnt land on 1 run decision.

So you are betting $200 to win 50.

So basically you are betting on a -400 moneyline! about 29% of the game ends in a 1 game decision. So you will easily lose money!!!!! Keep in mind that you dont always get +150. sometimes you might get +120 and +170...and if the lower odd keeps winning you would lose even more!!!

Nice point. So to make this a viable system, you would have to only go on games of +160 or more.

 

[Tulsa]

Purewinners Said:
this system will wipeout your bankroll.

The average is about +150

So if you bet $100 on each runline...your profit would be $50 assuming the game doesnt land on 1 run decision.

So you are betting $200 to win 50.

So basically you are betting on a -400 moneyline! about 29% of the game ends in a 1 game decision. So you will easily lose money!!!!! Keep in mind that you dont always get +150. sometimes you might get +120 and +170...and if the lower odd keeps winning you would lose even more!!!


I appreciate the discussion. I somewhat agree with your -400 ML point, but I do not agree with the 29% of the games end in a 1 run decision comment. I am not saying that the 29% is not true. What I am saying is that I strongly believe that by careful choices I can choose games that are in a different risk pool than the overall average 29% that end on a one run final.

I think the fallacy of the 29% comment is like saying that the average person has a 5% chance of dieing this year, therefore YOU have a 5% chance of dieing this year. In actuality, you may have a 1% chance of dieing this year. I would like to pick the games that have less than a 30% chance of hitting one run final...and I think I can do that.

So, after three days we are up +1.87 units. Houston should have pulled it out but we are here to learn, not fret losses to hypothetical plays.

Any discussion is welcome. tulsa

End of Sunday Balance: +1.87

 

[trains40]

JUST SAW YOUR POSTS. I LOVE WHAT I SEE I AM A PERSON WHO LOVES TO TRY NEW EXCITING STUFF. MAYBE THIS IS SOMETHING TO SUPPLEMENT YOUR OTHER PLAYS. MIGHT NOT BRING BIG CASH BUT HELPS BRING THAT BANKROLL UP A FEW MORE UNITS. LOOKING FORWARD TO SEE WHAT YOU HAVE TONIGHT TULSA GL. :toast:

 

[Tulsa]

MONDAY:

Houston -1.5 +233
Detroit -1.5 +130

Tampa Bay -1.5 +206
Florida -1.5 +169

Colorado -1.5 +241
LA Angels -1.5 +148

 

[Tulsa]

Trains, I cant find that old thread that you are talking about but I did want to add to Tulsa that I tried this short term using the higher over/unders thinking that would give me an edge. Short term (1 month) there was no difference between the 10 and over games and the 9.5 and under games. My next thought was looking at the pitching matchups and and only taking the games if the pitchers, for example, have an avg era of 4.5 or worse. I think there might be a mechanical key to this if we can find it.

I moved this into this thread to keep the information and ideas all together!

Thanks WarRoom for giving us some more info/ideas. In all honesty, there may be a system here. However, there also may be a 'finesse' situation where one finds the games by basic capping and juggling facts on a per/game basis.

I know many like systems and I'm all for that as it takes the pressure off when the system works well. HOWEVER, I am a finesse player and always have been. I do well at it, too.

Right now, the games I'm posting in this thread I AM NOT PLAYING FOR REAL $. I hope you guys do not either. ALSO, I am picking them by gut feeling and ideas and basic capping...finesse. No system to pick them for me yet.

NOW, we will exhaust the possibilities here but first I just wanted to see if we could work it this way as that is the way my mind is geared.

I also want to point out that like WarRoom found, I went back over several days and found that just using OVER 10 as a criterion for using a game does not seem to pan out. My data set was very small, I know, but it was random. I mentioned this in a post above. That is why I started using finesse to find the games I would play. Good luck and let us keep the dialogue and ideas alive and flowing. tulsa

 

[Tulsa]

Detroit +30
Florida +69

Col/LAngels -200
Monday net: -101

Overall net after four days: +.87 units

Guys, I know that one run games occur in many different ways and that we can expect them. But I think we are not off track with the plays so much BECAUSE we have had TWO 2 out homers to kill a play in the last two days. The CWSox had one on Sunday and Colorado had one last night. However, I know that we will see more bad beats with this process than any other because either team can do some random crazy thang and it blows what we are after.

Later on, I will see if I can find some plays for today. Remember this is a trial and I wouldn't suggest putting hard monies on it yet. Many think that this is a fruitless exercise and they may very well be right. I just see something tantalizing here. Good luck. tulsa

End balance: +.87 units

 

[mofome]

you know whats better...

betting one team ml thats a dog and betting the other team -1.5 at a dog value. only way to lose is if the one team wins by only one run

 

[NJCapper]

we could even go so far as to pick a dog ML and a -1 runline so even if the fave wins by exactly one run we push on one bet and lose the other.

 

[shipdapaper]

we could even go so far as to pick a dog ML and a -1 runline so even if the fave wins by exactly one run we push on one bet and lose the other.

I think that the problem here would be that when taking the -1 RL you dont get a good enough line for it to be worth it.

 

[Tulsa]

mofome, I'm going to try it with the -1.5/-1.5 first just to see if I can get it to work. I think that the added risk on the dog's side to win by one run versus the payout for a dog's -1.5 may be justified. May be.

Thanks for the input and if this crashes and burns (after trying finesse and different types of 'system' picks for the games to use each day) then the PHASE 2 will be your suggestion. PHASE 3 is to give up and drink lots of beer.

Actually, now that I think about it, we can follow your suggestion at the same time we follow the way I have been doing it, and kill two stoners with one toke. We can also merge PHASE three into our current PHASE 1 and drop the 'giving up' part....keeping the 'drink lots of beer' part. Yes...this is much better. Much, much better.

NJCapper, I believe that shipdapaper is correct. We must have fairly high payouts for our choices or this will not work. It may still not work, but the best opportunity is to get paid fairly well when the favored (and they should win more often, right?) wins by two or more. Thanks for the input guys. tulsa

 

[Tulsa]

Tuesday Night:

All at -1.5 runs

Houston +210
Detroit +152

Cleveland +196
St. Louis +159

Oakland +147
San Diego +210

Texas +132
San Francisco +232

Let us see winners!!! Remember, this is a trial period and I wouldn't wager real $ until we get a good feel for what is going on with this. Good luck on all your plays tonight. tulsa

NOTE: All of these very same games are also going to be graded on DOG ML and Favorite -1.5 but I don't have time to list them right now as I have work to do in the next several minutes.

 

[Tulsa]

Guys, the problem we have in doing this experiment is that a monkey could be winning these. The games just last night were 13 games with more than one run spread at final and 1 game with a one run spread at final. That is not the norm at all. It should usually be something like 9-5 or so.

But, what do you do.....

Favorite -1.5 and DOG ML system:
With this system the risk of a one run loss is only on the side of the favorite. This dramatically lowers the chances of getting squeezed out of both sides. HOWEVER, the return on the dog is much less. We shall see....

Detroit +52

Cleveland +18

San Diego +110

San Francisco +5

TODAY NET: +1.85 units

OVERALL NET: +1.85 units



Both dog and favorite -1.5 system:

Detroit +52

Cleveland +96

San Diego +110

San Francisco +132

TUESDAY NET: +3.90

OVERALL NET: 4.77 units

 

[NJCapper]

Just curious, I noticed you won $5 on the giants are you placing all the bets as 1 unit to win 1.xx units? For example, Cleveland +196 and St. Louis +159 are you betting $100 to win $196 and $100 to win $159? If the bet is a winner, this would result in winning either $96 or $59.

I was thinking maybe you can scalp both bets--- for example with cleveland and st. louis
$106.67 on st. louis to win $169.61
$93.34 on cleveland to win $182.95

In this scenario, if the bet is a winner you are guaranteed either $76.28 if cards win or $76.27 if indians win for the same $200 wagered. Maybe I'm missing something??

 

[Tulsa]

NJCapper you are looking at the situation where I was playing SF Giants ML and Texas -1.5 runline. I am trying two methods out. Go look at the new thread I started today "dog -1.5 & fav -1.5" and it will be more clear. This thread was getting unwieldy and I wasn't doing a good job of showing my lines and such. I've got a better format in the newer thread. tulsa