Betting both teams -1.5 runs - profitable?

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winbet said:
As I said in X-files Thread, it seems to be the fashion to make bets more complicated giving the impression that they must be good because of it. Simply put, you are acting as a Bookmaker and laying correct scores in a Baseball game and the bottom line is if you dont know your figures, you will do your bollocks (lose big). There are easier ways to make betting pay than the one you are suggesting. :drink:

Winbet, you may be right, but it isn't THAT complicated and alternate runlines have not been as available as they are these days.

Further, we are crazy Americans and we like to fly the contraptions before we actually study them too much and you know what? We get something off the ground at some point...so what if we lose several people on the way....LOL! You damn thoughtful, careful Brits!! Nobody would have ever eaten sushi if we all thought like you!

Actually, I am not advocated any real dollars right now (pounds to you.) I am advocating following this a little and seeing what would happen.

I do appreciate everyone offering their assistance in getting the alternate run lines for the dogs. Thanks much you fuck heads! I love you guys, but you are worthless! tulsa
 

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Tulsa said:
Winbet, you may be right, but it isn't THAT complicated and alternate runlines have not been as available as they are these days.

Further, we are crazy Americans and we like to fly the contraptions before we actually study them too much and you know what? We get something off the ground at some point...so what if we lose several people on the way....LOL! You damn thoughtful, careful Brits!! Nobody would have ever eaten sushi if we all thought like you!

Actually, I am not advocated any real dollars right now (pounds to you.) I am advocating following this a little and seeing what would happen.

I do appreciate everyone offering their assistance in getting the alternate run lines for the dogs. Thanks much you fuck heads! I love you guys, but you are worthless! tulsa

We still hate Sushi, something to do with the Film "Bridge over the River Kwai"
All I'm saying Tulsa is whether your testing something or playing for real, you must know your figures, Two Plus signs in a game for giving up 1 run can seem rewarding but if you dont know how much that run is worth your guessing, and you only end up in one place guessing at this game. :drink:
 

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On my list of hypothetical plays doing this we have one ouchie so far...Nationals/Orioles a one-run final. Maybe I could have been more selective! Well, with five plays, of course I could have.... However, I'm just feeling this idea out and I think it has much merit! tulsa
 

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I think it will work if your very selective, I was thinking of trying this.

The total is a good indicator also look how often a team wins by 2+ runs and how often the the teams loses by 2+ runs. Also look at how often the pitcher has games decided by 2+ runs.

Lets say the game is Mets Vs Phillies

Mets -1.5 +135

Phillies -1.5 +200

Would you bet even amounts on each play? Like $100 to win $135 on Mets and $100 to win $200 on Phillies.
 

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Out of my list of five: Four won and one lost. One lost means $200 lost. I don't know how much the four won would be....no one helped me find the dog's alternative run line!!

HOWEVER, I believe that I made money tonight and I could have been more selective too. If I didn't make money on those then I didn't lose much, that I feel strongly about.

I really think that I could do this and have it work! I really, really do. You have to admit one thing. I picked five games and four did it to it! That ain't bad for just throwing something against the wall.

Bet-it-all, I think that I would look at it as a play both sides with the same amount. Don't you think? It's what I would do. tulsa


:dancefool :dancefool :dancefool
 

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Here are my games for today:
1 Pirates/Dodgers
2 Nationals/Orioles
3 Brewers/Royals
4 Rangers/Rockies
5 Angels/Diamondbacks


1) I made 70
2) Lost 200
3) made 20
4) made over 70 as the Rockies were favored and they were +170
5) made over 80 as the Diamondbacks were favored and they were +180

All of these lines are from earlier as well, so they may not match what you had right before the game start: these were from 12 p.m. Eastern DT from Cris.

So, my plays made around $70 or more today. I think we could do better with fewer games and less risk of hitting the one run win/loss.

This is a GREAT idea. tulsa
 

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The key

Tulsa said:
I really think that I could do this and have it work! I really, really do.
The key to making this work is picking games that won't end in a one-run victory. If you can do that, I think you've got something.

The Professor has spoken.

OK, seriously, the run line price is influenced by the total, so while choosing games that have high totals will increase your chances of cashing, you'll also get paid less. There's a pretty good article on how to make a run line. It's at another site, so I guess I shouldn't link to it directly, but if you google up "Simon Noble run line" it'll be the first or second item.
 

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Thanks Prof Plum. I will look up the RL article by Noble. I believe we can do this. Let us keep this thread as the place to work out the feasibility of this. I will post a couple of games here in a bit for today. tulsa
 

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My two games for SATURDAY, June 24

1 Pirates/Dodgers
2 Rangers/Rockies

These are the two plays I will use today. Can someone let me know what the dogs' Alternate -1.5 run line payout is?

Dodgers -1.5 = +170

Rockies -1.5 = +170

NOTE: these are on paper only. I am in no way advocating placing currency on these...this is a trial...

tulsa
 

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MegaSB has alt run lines all day every day. On Tulsa's games today the lines are:

{Pirates (-1.5) +169 }
{Dodgers (-1.5) +178}

{Rangers (-1.5) +145 }
{Rockies (-1.5) +178 }

BTW, in the long run this strategy is suicide, unless you are real, real real careful, and if you're real, real real careful you do more work than the money won is worth. I ran this for 2002 and 2003 season on paper and the 04-05 seasons playing for real money, and the games just always even themselves out over the long term.

In the process I did learn some valuable alt runline betting strategies for dogs; had a good one yesterday as a matter of fact with Detroit (-1.5) +213. The +200> alt runline plays are a pretty good set of bets on their own; they're not very common and it's a fairly easy call on whether or not they are worth the risk when one comes up.

One thing that I am still trying to understand is the ML:RL differences. The math is very hard for me to get my brain wrapped around, and the alt runline is often out of whack with the normal lines, sometimes being way cheaper than one would think it is and sometimes being more expensive. It sounds like a strange rule of thumb, but if the dog (-1.5) costs less than the favourite (-1.5) I am usually all over the dog or dog (+1.5) play.

A good example of this is Seattle-San Diego today. Seattle is the dog and the standard line is (+1.5) -230/(-1.5) +197 ... but the alt runline is (-1.5) +162/(+1.5) -187, which makes me really want to take a close look at playing Seattle. I would never in a million years lay -230 on a team, but the ML at -103 is pretty attractive to me just going by the lines (have not yet looked at the matchup so don't take this as a recommendation to play Seattle; just giving it as an example of an "out of whack" alt runline that makes me want to look at the dog as a play.)


Phaedrus
 

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Just one other note here -- the costs on the "double run line" bet are enormous. This sometimes escapes calculation because you're placing two separate bets. But in the example of Rangers (-1.5) +145/Rockies (-1.5) +178 above, if you put a unit on either side and Rangers win by 2+ then you won 0.45 units, which is a -445 line if it were a single bet. Would you play a game at that price under any normal circumstance?


Phaedrus
 

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Phaedrus said:
A good example of this is Seattle-San Diego today. Seattle is the dog and the standard line is (+1.5) -230/(-1.5) +197 ... but the alt runline is (-1.5) +162/(+1.5) -187, which makes me really want to take a close look at playing Seattle. I would never in a million years lay -230 on a team, but the ML at -103 is pretty attractive to me just going by the lines (have not yet looked at the matchup so don't take this as a recommendation to play Seattle; just giving it as an example of an "out of whack" alt runline that makes me want to look at the dog as a play.)
Phaedrus

thats due to the fact that if the home team is leading after the top of the 9th, the game is over...meaning the home team only had 8 at bats. an away team will ALWAYS have 9 at bats which means that they will have more of a chance of winning by more than 1 run...even if the home team is a slight favorite.
 

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Saturday:

I'm getting that good/funny butterflyee feeling in my stomach....like things are going to really kick into gear and I'll have all the money in the world within a year or two......that's my goal anyway. To have everyone's money and things in the whole world. Hey...and that is just where I want to start things off!! You have to set your sights on something. I just set my sights on everything....

Now, today:

1 Pirates/Dodgers
2 Rangers/Rockies

Dodgers give us 70 and Rockies give us 70. +140 for the day on this methodology....


We risk four hundred and get plus 140. That doesn't sound so good but we will see. I think I can nail these down; I really do. I truly believe that this is right up my alley. Don't be losing money on my plays just yet. This is a trial.

Two days and up $210 or 2.1 units risking 2 units per game.

Phaedrus, I believe you are one damn sharp fellow. I wish I could follow more of your posts so if you have time, come post more often. I appreciate both you and bznofx19 adding to the discussion regarding this idea/method.

Further, Phaedrus, thanks for posting up the alternative run lines. I appreciate that. A lot of these knuckle-heads are quick with an opinion, but damn any work!! LOL! They mean well and they don't owe me anything, so I guess I won't complain too much. But, thanks for your help. I will begin looking for the lines at the sites you suggested.

I'll be back here tomorrow. Good luck all! tulsa
 

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Sunday

Sunday's plays on the -1.5 for both sides:


Brewers -1.5 +132
Royals -1.5 +187


Rangers -1.5 +140
Rockies -1.5 +190

Good luck. tulsa
 

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:dancefool :dancefool :dancefool

Today: Royals +87 and Rockies +90 for +177 today. Total over three days: +$387 or 3.87 units!

Picture in your mind Jim Carrey. Picture Jim Carrey saying, "I like it a lot." That is how I feel right now.

tulsa
 

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Tulsa,
Interesting idea. I am curious how it will work out in the long run. Good luck with the system.
 

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Adding another for SUNDAY

Thanks Captain Carl! I will continue doing this until we see if it is working or not. If it isn't working, then it was a nifty idea and nothing but a little work lost. If it does work then I will have to kill everyone that looked at this thread and then take over the world using this method. Thanks for letting me know you've seen the thread Captain Carl. Don't look outside your window right now...

Remember this is a trial period...


Astros -1.5 +175
ChiSox -1.5 +172

i like it a lot
 

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Well, it looks like maybe we have a winner on the final game of the day but I'd better not call it just yet. tulsa
 

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Tulsa,
You may be onto something. Keep posting them and I am going to put some cash on it for awhile. Good luck.
 

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