Best China Micro-caps on the Market

[kuwlness]

kuwlness, haven't heard much on ccgy lately....thoughts?

CCGY: Solid Management, nice balance sheet, future is bright here. Still looking for $2+, got half-way there back in April, then market correction caught it. Seems to be holding well in the .60s.

I'd sell a break below .60 and look to re-buy in the low/mid-.40s if the market does turn down further. If it gets back towards $1, sell into the strength. Not expecting any solid improvements until Q3/Q4.

 

[kuwlness]

Successful test of 1085 held today, but I think there's a high probability that we test 1076 tomorrow or Friday. I still suggest going long at 1076, but today's test of 1085 might be the beginning of the short-term reversal ... will be looking for confirmation tomorrow.

Market indicators are telling me we're setting up for a strong push as we're holding above the 20-day MA and the Oscillators are saying money is still coming into the market, not exiting. There's also the Fibonacci's at 1076 (61.8% from top) and that's why i'm still optimistically bullish over the short-term (talking weeks here, not very long).

I'm still looking for a push to S&P 1150-1170. I strongly encourage moving into cash and short positions as we approach 1150. I'm looking into SDS and QID calls. Not sure which month I like better right now, August or September. I'll update the board when the time approaches.

 

[tiznow]

regardless of what happens near term

what ya think as far as the ultimate long term bottom to this move down?

900-950 or lower? just curious

also seems like you getting kinda picky to me...if you think we heading to 900-950 why bother to try to predict a near term push to 1150 and if it doesn't come and we fall from here than what? chase it?

if we get back above the 200 DMA i'll be a believer but we already did 3 tests of it i doubt it goes back up and tries again....we already a month into this bear market rally (1040 reached end of may) and in the meantime have done a good enough job of working off some near term oversold conditions....

 

[tiznow]

well we got down to the 1076 you were callin' for now lets see if your bounce comes

 

[tiznow]

well so far so good didn't doubt the fall to 1076....just doubt it holds for very long....and we don't see a bounce to 1150

kuwl what u doing if 1076 cracks? and we don't get a rally anywhere near 1150 here

 

[kuwlness]

We'll see tomorrow. It's quite normal for the market to over-shoot in one direction or the other, the Fibonacci's are just used for reference, not exact science.

I see the reversal happening tomorrow based on the GDP Third Estimate and I still see S&P 1150 over the next few weeks. The Summation Index and most other indicators I use are telling me this is just the market putting in a higher low from the lows earlier this month.

But, i'm a Realist and if I see additional weakness, I have no problem going short. However, I see a Bullish Falling Wedge on the S&P and also a Triple-Bullish Divergence on the MACD on the 15-minute chart -- this is one of the most bullish indicators used in technical analysis and can make you a boatload of money. I'll be watching the 5-min closely tomorrow to determine if I want to add to my SSO position that I added to heavily today, or if I want to sell and grab SDS to play the bearish side.


As for the bottom, I think 900-950 on the S&P is it. I'll have to re-assess the situation at that time. I actually bought some DGP today because I see some bearish indicators on the $USD and I think there's a good chance Gold hits $1500 in Q4, maybe sooner.

 

[tiznow]

seems like its doing what i like to call "bear grinding" to me....typically a sign the next bear move is in the beginning stages

hit your technical targets got a mometary bounce...than grinding on lower.....

only thing i think you might get your big bump off of

is if the bank lobbiests get what they want in the fin reg bill

alot going on with that which has big repurcussions for the financial sector

like will government make the banks spin off all their derivitives into a seperate entity and back them with funds for instance or will the lobbiests be able to get rid of that

also as far as longer a term bear goes

many european indices, nikkei, NYSE composite...have already done 50 DMA crosses to the downside of the 200 DMA....and S&P and such will be getting there soon.....bad long term signal for stocks

 

[tiznow]

also what's the current status of the gobs of small chinese guys that this tread is about

still hang on for dear life for the long haul and do this other stuff (play the long/short swings) on the side

or liquidate some?

 

[tiznow]

I see a Bullish Falling Wedge on the S&P and also a Triple-Bullish Divergence on the MACD on the 15-minute chart -- tQUOTE]

regardless of the near term i see a huge bearish rising wedge from the march 09 low to the recent market top

:grandmais

 

[kuwlness]

also what's the current status of the gobs of small chinese guys that this tread is about

still hang on for dear life for the long haul and do this other stuff (play the long/short swings) on the side

or liquidate some?

Absolutely liquidate into market strength. I suggested this the last few days. Go long here and sell into the completion of the Right Shoulder that we're likely to put in as we bounce up to the 1150 area.

Suggesting at least 50% cash. I'll be 90% invested, but the majority of it will be in Shorts and the Float Lock-Downs. Will keep a couple long positions protected by hedging with the TZA. Also, DJSP is hard not to love considering the housing market is going to be facing another down-draft and they will capitalize on the foreclosures that will be hitting us over the coming months.

Your other option is to start buying incrementally into the correction and look forward to long-term capital gains next year. I see this as another Correction, you see it as a Bear Market. Regardless, we both see the same thing -- the market going down.

But what happens after the market goes down a bit further (10-15%)?? You say it keeps going lower, I say it stabilizes and heads higher later this year or early next year.

 

[tiznow]

i'm also looking for strong support down in the 850-950 area....somewhere down there i'll likely move into full hedged mode or even net long....and than reevaluate to see if another move lower is still in the cards

the timeline is setup nicely for another waterfall move sub 850-950 support come sept/oct 2010 (shock and awe goin' into nov elections LOL) if we can get down to 850-950 in the next month or so than bounce hold that for august

 

[brownman]

ccme makes me sick

 

[erwinmark]

I guess advertising on buses in China, suffers too with the turndown in the economy. Hard to believe any kind of advertising company would be a good bet anywhere in the world, besides the WWW.

 

[BigDon]

I was averaged in @11.50 and had a stop loss @10.50. I lost but it ended up @8.95 could have been worse....

 

[PatsFan1283]

Wow this was the best board in the financial forum. Been quiet lately....BUMP after the market was strong last week.

 

[tanner12oz]

CCME back in the 11's look like those 8's were a BUY BUY BUY

 

[PatsFan1283]

Where has kuwlness been? Seems awol lately. First we lose brianiac in the MMA Forum and now kuhlness in the Financial Forum!

Anyone else have a top 3-5 plays right now list they'd like to share?

 

[tiznow]

these guys goin lower will be a choppy ride

kinda surprised most of these haven't been able to muster up any sort of dead cat bounce overall....looks like ccme is but many other aren't bouncing all that much

granted overall alot of the bouncing in bears is short covering and shorts aren't involved in these somewhat illiquid investments all that much

 

[ANOTHERDAY]

Some of these are in big big trouble##). XODGE has killed me. Down to .17 todayhno:.

 

[tanner12oz]

i liked XODG and then they dropped the ball with accounting and it's been downhill from there