CSGH cheap, but what isnt. Future battery technology in the making, you're now getting a Cobalt mine in Africa. Should be trading $2+ imo. Long-term this is a winner. Solid balance sheet, good earnings, not a whole lot of growth, but that'll improve as their battery line-up gets more widely distributed.
CHFI -- who knows, it's back to where I bought it in March of last year. De-listed to the pinks now. No filings in forever, no word from the company ... some of their affiliates are solid -- BFAR, CNOA, JADA ... i think they're out of JADA now, though. Could be a gold mine, could be a scam ... who knows. I still own some.
Sorry all, been busy ... my other dog had puppies earlier this week and i've been tied up dealing with some private investors wanting to re-balance their portfolios which isnt the easiest thing to do during a correction.
Hang in there. These rough days are great buying opportunities or times to get up and go outside and get some fresh air. Take a step back and look at the big picture. Warren Buffet himself said, "The 20th Century belonged to the US, the 21st Century belongs to China."
China isnt going anywhere and while some of their economical data might be slightly jaded, i'm still as bullish as ever and so are the large investment banks (Goldman, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, etc).
If the price isnt right, dont sell. You'll get your price sooner or later.
Current top holdings (realize these change all the time depending on the PEs ... I always re-balance my portfolio based off the best bang for my buck and/or my comfortability level with the company/stock/management):
#1: CCME
#2: LPIH
#3: CCLWF (these are warrants)
#4: CKGT
#5: DJSP
#6: NEWN
#7: LIWA
#8: NEP
#9: CNYD
#10: CNAM
I also have a large portion of my portfolio dedicated to the FLDs -- almost 25%. I truly believe in this concept and am not concerned about the recent price retracements.
I also think the following are cheap and worth at least a small position:
AKRK, BSPM, CCGY, CELM, CHNC, ENHD, JADA, LTUS, SBAY, SIAF, SKBI, SOKF, TSTC, UTA, XNYH, YONG, YUII, and ZSTN
I own small positions (1-3%) in almost all of these names.
Hang in there. These rough days are great buying opportunities or times to get up and go outside and get some fresh air. Take a step back and look at the big picture. Warren Buffet himself said, "The 20th Century belonged to the US, the 21st Century belongs to China."
China isnt going anywhere and while some of their economical data might be slightly jaded, i'm still as bullish as ever and so are the large investment banks (Goldman, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, etc).
If the price isnt right, dont sell. You'll get your price sooner or later.
Current top holdings (realize these change all the time depending on the PEs ... I always re-balance my portfolio based off the best bang for my buck and/or my comfortability level with the company/stock/management):
#1: CCME
#2: LPIH
#3: CCLWF (these are warrants)
#4: CKGT
#5: DJSP
#6: NEWN
#7: LIWA
#8: NEP
#9: CNYD
#10: CNAM
I also have a large portion of my portfolio dedicated to the FLDs -- almost 25%. I truly believe in this concept and am not concerned about the recent price retracements.
I also think the following are cheap and worth at least a small position:
AKRK, BSPM, CCGY, CELM, CHNC, ENHD, JADA, LTUS, SBAY, SIAF, SKBI, SOKF, TSTC, UTA, XNYH, YONG, YUII, and ZSTN
I own small positions (1-3%) in almost all of these names.
you can talk valuations all you want
when people are running for the hills
and you are dealing with small companies with shady reporting practices and a low degree of transparency and high degree of uncertainty in a country where many people don't believe the statistics coming out of there etc.....they are gonna get slammed...regardless of what you think is value and what not....
comparing p/es to big american companies with good transparency (i'm not talking about the banking industry lol)
is pretty pointless
anyway it'll be a really choppy ride but these guys are gonna continue to get slammed with the coming return of the bear
when people are running for the hills
and you are dealing with small companies with shady reporting practices and a low degree of transparency and high degree of uncertainty in a country where many people don't believe the statistics coming out of there etc.....they are gonna get slammed...regardless of what you think is value and what not....
comparing p/es to big american companies with good transparency (i'm not talking about the banking industry lol)
is pretty pointless
anyway it'll be a really choppy ride but these guys are gonna continue to get slammed with the coming return of the bear
I agree to some degree, these companies likely wont see hefty multiples in the near-term. Eventually several of the names mentioned here will be more mainstream and will get respectable PEs, and at that point in time I wont own them anymore. I wouldnt want to own any American stock trading at a PE of 20-30 when they arent even growing.
You can pump your bear crap all you want, but you've been wrong more times than right about the markets ... And last I checked your favorite investment (the precious metal) is up less than 10% YTD ... in the first month of this year most of my stocks out-performed Gold's YTD performance, so I wouldnt get too cocky.
In fact, lets bet an ounce of Gold ... i'll take CCME & LPIH. If either of them dont outperform Gold for the year, i'll buy you an ounce of Gold. If both of them outperform Gold, you buy me an ounce of Gold worth of my favorite stock at the end of the year.
i've been talkin' smack about gold recently with all the other gold bulls in here just mainly to keep conversation though and talking near term...think it will pull back with the general gloom and doom but just consolidating in a long term bull...i always hold a core position but i'm heavily short equities now
gold isn't a near term pump play
its a long term investment in this fiscal nonsense we have going on that has worked for 10 years now not flashy but has gotten the job done better than pretty much anything else and outperformed the S&P by a humongous margin
as for wrong more times than not
yeah being a bear is hard...the timing is always hard to figure out....as you have no idea how long the pump will last....but its pretty easy to see it coming a mile away its just a matter of when....
the thing about bears though is once it comes it rips your throat out and all those gains that you had in the past 6-12 months can be whiped out in the matter of a few months
like take a ckgt for instance it was 1.42 back in sept of 2008....your under water if you bought it anytime between than and now....
like i said before its fun when the party is rolling along...just be sure to hop ship before the party ends cause when it does its not a fun ride anymore
did well with bspm dumped that guy around 4 after riding it for a bit during the reflation nonsense....
gold isn't a near term pump play
its a long term investment in this fiscal nonsense we have going on that has worked for 10 years now not flashy but has gotten the job done better than pretty much anything else and outperformed the S&P by a humongous margin
as for wrong more times than not
yeah being a bear is hard...the timing is always hard to figure out....as you have no idea how long the pump will last....but its pretty easy to see it coming a mile away its just a matter of when....
the thing about bears though is once it comes it rips your throat out and all those gains that you had in the past 6-12 months can be whiped out in the matter of a few months
like take a ckgt for instance it was 1.42 back in sept of 2008....your under water if you bought it anytime between than and now....
like i said before its fun when the party is rolling along...just be sure to hop ship before the party ends cause when it does its not a fun ride anymore
did well with bspm dumped that guy around 4 after riding it for a bit during the reflation nonsense....
Sounds like a plan sir ... heck, even I have been calling for a correction since the end of March and early April -- I've expected a test of the February lows and we actually got pretty close on that DOW -1000pt wild day.
A few weeks ago, I was positioned short with over 10% of my portfolio in Bearish Direxional ETFs -- the TZA being one of my favorites as it allows me to hedge my long positions in the small-caps. I'm now net long and have been putting most of my money back to work after covering most of my shorts earlier in the week. I still keep a small percentage in TZA Calls to keep a small hedge.
Is this just a correction or are we turning into a bear market? The next few months will tell the story. Today sure feels like a capitulation day to me ... not bad for a Friday. We'll see where we close and Monday should be a sign as to whether or not the institutions are ready to buy again.
GL in your trades.
Not that I feel I need to defend China or my investments, but since others like to post articles about bubbles and what not, here's some food for thought:
China is not in bubble
Saturday, 22 May 2010
China isn't in a bubble but there are sectors that are overvalued and the country's economy will experience the same ups and downs that the US and the United Kingdom did during their economic sojourn in the early 20th century, according to Adrian Day, editor of Adrian Day's Global Analyst.
"I don't think it is a bubble, but I think there are parts of China that are overvalued, and well overvalued," Day said. "I think that is recognized by the Chinese government beginning to tighten, particularly in real estate."
Day noted he is trained as a historian and that ups and downs in an economy have occurred with other countries and will continue to occur. He said one has to look at the long term.
"You can believe in the long-term future of China, in its economic growth and what that means for resources," Day recently said in an interview on the sidelines of the Hard Assets Investment Conference in New York. That doesn’t mean it's going to be a straight line. "
Day noted that from 1865 to 1930. the US had its greatest period of growth amid depressions, wars, riots and other social and economic events. "American companies went bankrupt, investors in railroad bonds lost their shirts. But the economy continued to grow. England had the same kind of growth and instability, he said.
The same thing will happen in China, Day said. He said China may have depressions, riots, possibly wars--"who knows what will happen. There will be all sorts of setbacks. But the underlying demand for resources will continue," he said.
Day also said emerging markets are good places for investors to look in coming months and years. He said they have better financial profiles than many developed countries but he said with all the risk in the global economic atmosphere right now, caution is the best approach for investment in any market.
"I think the emerging markets are where the opportunities are for the next several years, but I have to say that right now there is too much risk in the major markets, too much risk in the smaller market," said Day. "We’re standing back at the moment. "
Day said in the emerging markets the government finances are basically better. "Every single emerging market around the world has a lower debt ratio than the developed countries, which is astonishing, " he said. They have better savings among their people and better growth in the recent past, and better growth prospects. "
Even better, Day said, these markets are not that expensive "You look at Brazil, you look at Singapore, at Thailand.. and the markets are not that expensive; in many cases they are cheaper than the developed countries," he said. "I think that is where the opportunities are, but not at this moment. "
Asked when, Day said he was looking along a three to five year horizon.
He said he'd like to see some of the current problems resolved. "The problem is in the risk," he said. "It's not that they are that expensive."
But he said if there are more problems with sovereign debt, which is more likely than unlikely, "there is no doubt that investors are going to retract . And that will hurt the emerging markets as it hurt the development markets. So I'm just waiting for a better opportunity."
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=102443&Itemid=60
China is not in bubble
Saturday, 22 May 2010
China isn't in a bubble but there are sectors that are overvalued and the country's economy will experience the same ups and downs that the US and the United Kingdom did during their economic sojourn in the early 20th century, according to Adrian Day, editor of Adrian Day's Global Analyst.
"I don't think it is a bubble, but I think there are parts of China that are overvalued, and well overvalued," Day said. "I think that is recognized by the Chinese government beginning to tighten, particularly in real estate."
Day noted he is trained as a historian and that ups and downs in an economy have occurred with other countries and will continue to occur. He said one has to look at the long term.
"You can believe in the long-term future of China, in its economic growth and what that means for resources," Day recently said in an interview on the sidelines of the Hard Assets Investment Conference in New York. That doesn’t mean it's going to be a straight line. "
Day noted that from 1865 to 1930. the US had its greatest period of growth amid depressions, wars, riots and other social and economic events. "American companies went bankrupt, investors in railroad bonds lost their shirts. But the economy continued to grow. England had the same kind of growth and instability, he said.
The same thing will happen in China, Day said. He said China may have depressions, riots, possibly wars--"who knows what will happen. There will be all sorts of setbacks. But the underlying demand for resources will continue," he said.
Day also said emerging markets are good places for investors to look in coming months and years. He said they have better financial profiles than many developed countries but he said with all the risk in the global economic atmosphere right now, caution is the best approach for investment in any market.
"I think the emerging markets are where the opportunities are for the next several years, but I have to say that right now there is too much risk in the major markets, too much risk in the smaller market," said Day. "We’re standing back at the moment. "
Day said in the emerging markets the government finances are basically better. "Every single emerging market around the world has a lower debt ratio than the developed countries, which is astonishing, " he said. They have better savings among their people and better growth in the recent past, and better growth prospects. "
Even better, Day said, these markets are not that expensive "You look at Brazil, you look at Singapore, at Thailand.. and the markets are not that expensive; in many cases they are cheaper than the developed countries," he said. "I think that is where the opportunities are, but not at this moment. "
Asked when, Day said he was looking along a three to five year horizon.
He said he'd like to see some of the current problems resolved. "The problem is in the risk," he said. "It's not that they are that expensive."
But he said if there are more problems with sovereign debt, which is more likely than unlikely, "there is no doubt that investors are going to retract . And that will hurt the emerging markets as it hurt the development markets. So I'm just waiting for a better opportunity."
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=102443&Itemid=60
Also:
"It remains too early for China to carry out an exit strategy by phasing out fiscal stimulus," Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said in Brussels on Friday.
"There are still a lot of uncertainties in the world economy. Therefore we believe it is too early for us to talk about an exit strategy from our stimulus package," Chen told reporters after a meeting with European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht.
"The Chinese government will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy," he added.
"It remains too early for China to carry out an exit strategy by phasing out fiscal stimulus," Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said in Brussels on Friday.
"There are still a lot of uncertainties in the world economy. Therefore we believe it is too early for us to talk about an exit strategy from our stimulus package," Chen told reporters after a meeting with European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht.
"The Chinese government will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy," he added.
Random Weekend Thoughts:
China is making up new rules as they go and they are equipped to make sound decisions. With 2.4 Trillion dollars in credit, it only makes sense to boost parts of the economy to ease the pain associated with declining growth in the west. Proactive monetary policy serves as a checks and balances to contain inflation.
The chinese have already shown an appetite for fast fiscal policy decisions like those we saw recently that litterly stopped the real estate market cold in its tracks. One would think that the real issue is what happens when they pull back stimulus.
But the fact is that the Chinese can afford this ... businesses are strikingly clean from a balance sheet perspective, and a tremendous amount of new jobs are being created, driven by domestic consumption to absorb any impact for a misplaced workforce.
Here's the link from the above post that I forgot to include:
China is making up new rules as they go and they are equipped to make sound decisions. With 2.4 Trillion dollars in credit, it only makes sense to boost parts of the economy to ease the pain associated with declining growth in the west. Proactive monetary policy serves as a checks and balances to contain inflation.
The chinese have already shown an appetite for fast fiscal policy decisions like those we saw recently that litterly stopped the real estate market cold in its tracks. One would think that the real issue is what happens when they pull back stimulus.
But the fact is that the Chinese can afford this ... businesses are strikingly clean from a balance sheet perspective, and a tremendous amount of new jobs are being created, driven by domestic consumption to absorb any impact for a misplaced workforce.
Here's the link from the above post that I forgot to include:
China Will Keep Cranking Its Stimulus Thanks To Europe
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-2010-5
the problem is they are building empty cities that nobody can afford to live in
in theory its all fine and dandy
but when you got billions of people to keep content its a totally different story
woof posted this at one point
not sure if it was in this thread
they just lotso "building bridges to nowhere" essentially
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i mean they will probably grow into it eventually in the long haul as i'm sure china will be the biggest dude on the block in say 20-30 years
but near term they overextended with their property bubble
also as far as the "chinese microcaps" traded on the US stock markets which this thread is about
again alot of the fluctuations don't really have much to do with how they are doing persay
if the "de-risking"/bear market as i think is here continues chinese microcaps will get taken down with it regardless if they doing well etc...
in theory its all fine and dandy
but when you got billions of people to keep content its a totally different story
woof posted this at one point
not sure if it was in this thread
they just lotso "building bridges to nowhere" essentially
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i mean they will probably grow into it eventually in the long haul as i'm sure china will be the biggest dude on the block in say 20-30 years
but near term they overextended with their property bubble
also as far as the "chinese microcaps" traded on the US stock markets which this thread is about
again alot of the fluctuations don't really have much to do with how they are doing persay
if the "de-risking"/bear market as i think is here continues chinese microcaps will get taken down with it regardless if they doing well etc...
plus the chinese could be partially playing around in the global game of chess that goes on constantly....taking a long term outlook on things
slam on the stimulus break as the west is starting to feel the debt pain that needs china's help in the reflating things
deflation horrible for countries in major debt...deflation great for those flush with cash and good financial order
and wait for resources and such to get cheaper again for them to gobble um up on the cheap
slam on the stimulus break as the west is starting to feel the debt pain that needs china's help in the reflating things
deflation horrible for countries in major debt...deflation great for those flush with cash and good financial order
and wait for resources and such to get cheaper again for them to gobble um up on the cheap
