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the ride is fun when the goings good...just be sure you get out before everybody starts jumping outta windows


That's why these are great trading vehicles. I've always recommended keeping both core and trading positions.

These stocks are and will always be volatile. They're not blue-caps, then again you cant make 100% or more a year on blue caps unless you got lucky and timed last March's bottom perfectly.
 

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Faber and Chanos say the ride is over, China is going to pop in the next 12 months.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aMbfBKW.uKn4


Faber and Chanos couldnt be more wrong. The talking heads always have an agenda. They either talk their stocks up to unload, or talk stocks down that they want to load up on.

China is doing everything right to cool there economy off. Not sure how China can be in a bubble when they're growing at a steady 8% a year and will probably continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
 

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every one and their guru brother is down on china..
they feel usa is safest and most profitable place..


Hmmm, GDP of 3-4% for the next few years which could possible get worse due to government reigning in lending or a strong country on the rise growing at 8% a year. I've placed my bets.
 

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I am still optimistic and very Bullish on the China stocks mentioned here ... for me to be bearish I would have to see a few of the following things occur:

1) If I see China core inflation spiking above the 4% level I'll start being worried (Most people expect them to start raising rates/currency when inflation gets above 3%). Going above 4% would indicate more stringent measures are required.

2) If China GDP growth shows strong negative velocity (IE: a drop from 11 to 10 then 9 then 8 is great. A drop from 11% to 7% QoQ is not good.)

3) If I see someone in the Eurozone actually fail or Germany leaves the EU.

4) If I see the EU (as a whole) have a double-dip i'll be worried. A sustainable low-growth (0.5%-2%) is fine though.

5) If I see more than a 15% China real-estate price drop in non-first-tier cities like Beijing/Shanghai/etc. A 10-30% drop in prices in those large cities is quite acceptable to me given their recent price movements (In the last year alone).

6) If I start seeing a real-estate slowdown bleeding strongly into other sections of the economy. If we start seeing large NPL growth for example in the banks.

7) If Q1 YoY growth for our companies start trending down sharply from what the companies achieved YoY in Q3 and Q4.

8) If I start seeing any indication that the Chinese consumption is going down...Stuff like restaurants, travel, etc.
 

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As for the Faber's & Chanos's of the world ... here's the contrarian side of things and why I'm still as Bullish as ever:

1) Consumer spending & confidence could easily go higher with the very strong wage growth China is experiencing (12-15% this year). That creates a lot of disposable income given how far above inflation that wage growth is. Unlike in the US, where people treat their homes as 'piggy banks', I would bet you that the non-speculator Chinese citizen really will be less impacted by a falling home price than you think. They are also, as a whole, more accustomed to sharp movements in their economy (and stock market) than we are in the US.

2) A slowdown from an insane 11%+ GDP growth to a burning-hot 8% may cause very short-term softness, but that is why the Shanghai stock market has been soft the past 6 months. How long will that softness continue? If you look at analyst projections, Goldman for example expects it to end 2010 at 4300 ... Up very very significantly from current levels.

3) Going back to the October levels seems incredibly unlikely to me unless we have some disastrous news actually happen. Keep in mind that in October this sector was still recovering from the worst financial crisis in 80 years. Spain having its debt costs going up 18 basis-points today does not count as 'not investable'. They have had high unemployment for many years so that is nothing new. Projections of an actual default in the near future are overdone and in the next week I bet the markets will stop this 'panic mongering' we keep seeing on TV. Keep in mind that all these 'debt to GDP' numbers are using figures from an economic trough and all these metrics will start to look better in the months ahead given the general recovery. That could very well stabilize the situation.

4) Greece has a bailout package and will not default for at least 3 years. This is a non-issue for me, i dont even think about it anymore, it's done in my eyes.

5) The PIIGS, who WILL have to reduce spending, make up roughly 30% of the EU's GDP. Even if they do experience slow growth going forward, the impact from that being bandied about in the news seems inflated... Especially when you consider the solid growth we are seeing from the OTHER 70% of the EU (Look at the latest EU Manufacturing index numbers, they are quite good). I am not claiming European growth will be stellar going forward, but it does not need to be anything other than "decent."
6) The US market could certainly have a correction, it is already 3% off its high however. With very solid company EPS beats, economic news and so forth, I do not think that a correction right now would go further than another 3-4% or so if it happened.


People can easily hedge their bets as well. Buy companies that will show strong EPS growth in the next 3 months and short (via Puts) some of the more expensive (on a PE basis) larger names that are projecting mediocre growth. I'd certainly think a strategy like this would do better than simply sitting on cash.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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their property bubble is pretty ridiculous

who knows what their true GDP is...could be made up...and if the figures are true is only so huge due to government sponsored construction

they building all this stuff and nobody can afford to use it

the million dollar question is how long will it last it'll end badly at some point

chinese construction guys getting funds from hong kong now to feed the beast LOL

-----------------------------------

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- China’s biggest developers are borrowing record amounts in Hong Kong, taking advantage of lower interest rates to circumvent a lending crackdown at home.

While banks demand at least 5.2 percent in annual interest for three-to-five year money in mainland China, the cost of credit in Hong Kong dollars has fallen to the least since November 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. agreed to an HK$8 billion ($1.03 billion) loan in February that pays 1.45 percent at current market levels, the data show.

“For property developers to keep growing in what is an extremely fragmented and competitive market they have to go offshore” for funds, said Brayan Lai, a credit analyst at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “It’s one way to circumvent tight onshore credit.”

Syndicated borrowing by Chinese developers in Hong Kong dollars jumped to HK$37.3 billion this year, the most since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1999, from HK$3 billion in the same period of 2009. Total lending in the city rose six-fold to HK$63 billion from HK$8.7 billion as Chinese banks’ share of the market fell to 21 percent from 29 percent, while yuan- denominated lending to Chinese developers dropped by 25 percent.

China Resources Land Ltd. said on April 30 that it agreed to four loans with banks totaling HK$6.2 billion. Agile Property Holdings Ltd., a developer with projects in 20 Chinese cities and districts, borrowed $125 million in January from a Bank of America Corp. unit in Hong Kong, Bloomberg data show.

Shimao Pricing

Shimao Property Holdings Ltd., the developer controlled by billionaire Xu Rongmao, is seeking a $400 million loan from Hong Kong units of banks including HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc, Bloomberg data show. The loan may pay 3.1 percentage points more than the London interbank offered rate, according to Annisa Lee, a credit analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc.

“Companies are going to the syndicated loan market in Hong Kong because liquidity is strong and pricing’s competitive,” Lee said in a phone interview from the city. For loans, “property companies don’t have to pledge their projects as security, so there’s more flexibility with regards to the use of proceeds,” she said.

Shimao’s $350 million of 8 percent bonds due 2016 last traded at a yield of 6.58 percentage points more than Treasuries, according to BNP Paribas SA prices. The company, which has projects in 20 cities across China, said on April 13 that 2009 profit more than quadrupled to 3.51 billion yuan ($514 million).

Government Credibility

Tammy Tam, a spokeswoman for Shimao, didn’t respond to requests for comment by phone and e-mail. Doris Chung, a spokeswoman for China Overseas, declined to comment.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s government has staked its “credibility in economic management” on measures to cool the property market, Credit Suisse Group AG said on April 29, after the state raised mortgage rates and down-payment ratios, barred lending for third homes and tightened scrutiny of developers’ financing to restrain speculation. Fueled by a $586 billion stimulus package and $1.4 trillion of new loans last year, property prices jumped 11.7 percent in March.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission sent financing requests from 41 real estate companies to the Ministry of Land and Resources for review, according to a government statement on April 24. Companies with property businesses that plan to repay bank loans or boost operating capital must also submit equity financing plans to the ministry, the regulator said.

‘Most Draconian’

Banks in China extended 510.7 billion yuan of new loans in March, less than the median estimate of 21 economists polled by Bloomberg News, after the central bank ordered them to set aside more reserves and urged them to pace loan growth.

China also raised mortgage rates and imposed a sales tax. Labeled “the most draconian measures on the property market in history” by Deutsche Bank AG, the moves mean developers have to pay higher deposits for land purchases while banks must suspend lending to buyers who can’t provide tax returns or proof of social security contributions.

“It may be that some of the mainland banks are going to be restricted in the future” so companies “are taking pre-emptive measures to tap into the liquidity in Hong Kong,” said Phil Lipton, HSBC’s head of syndicated finance for Asia-Pacific debt capital markets.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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even jimmy rodgers china permabull says they got a property bubble

bubbles pretty easy to spot in general...the hard part is figuring out when they are gonna pop
 

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03-28-2010, 12:57 PM
There is no reason to sell all of your long positions, I just recommend cutting back on them. This is the time to be cautious and protect your gains, not to be euphoric -- as the VIX is suggesting. Capital Preservation is more important than increasing your Capital.

... Yes, cheap stocks can and will get cheaper during a market correction.


Well I called this correction a bit early as you can see ... but I hope no one got caught up in all the hype as we marched higher and higher. At the time of the correction I only had about 50% of my portfolio in stocks, and over 10% of that was in shorts.

I'm now about 85% re-invested in stocks and I will be moving towards 100% and an additional 20% on margin over the coming days. Dont let the bears scare you out of easy money. They only come out of hibernation when the market corrects.

This last market correction has given us some great opportunities ... the ones that stand out most to me are:


BSPM -- under $4 is a great entry, now trading on the Naz.
CCME -- under $12 is a joke, easiest money in town.
CCLWF -- at $1 these are one of the best buys in town. looking for $2.75-$3.50 by end of year ... these are warrants.
CKGT -- under $2 is laughable
CNAM -- under $5 is a great entry.
CNYD -- like it under $12.
DJSP -- still cheap.
LIWA -- great entry price now.
LPIH -- under $2.50 this is a must-own
NEWN -- easy double, at least.
SIAF -- under $1 is great, under .80 is even better .... if they're legit. Audited financials should be out soon.
SKBI -- cheap again.
TSTC -- under $11 i'll take it ... have been buying already.
YONG -- great entry price now.
YUII -- liked it under $9, really like it under $8.
ZSTN -- like it under $6.


Q1 Financials for a lot of these companies will be coming out over the next few weeks ... best to take a sizeable position ahead of (hopefully) strong earnings in most of these names. Buy any weakness after earnings if they report strong numbers.

:toast:
 

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DEAC:

Looks semi-interesting at first glance. Need to dig thru their financials a bit more ... should have some good DD put together before week's end. Will let you know over the next few days.

I almost always ignore stock tips from co-workers, but the guy who told me to take a look at this one is pretty sharp.
 

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Nice day for CCME

Yeah, CCME filed an NT-10Q yesterday that hinted at insane revenues for Q1 ... better than Q4, and Q4 is their strongest Q and Q1 is their weakest Q ... so, $2+ EPS this year is definitely possible which clearly makes this at least a $20 stock ... but with this kind of growth, a $40 price tag isnt unreasonable.

:toast:
 

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Well I called this correction a bit early as you can see ... but I hope no one got caught up in all the hype as we marched higher and higher. At the time of the correction I only had about 50% of my portfolio in stocks, and over 10% of that was in shorts.

I'm now about 85% re-invested in stocks and I will be moving towards 100% and an additional 20% on margin over the coming days. Dont let the bears scare you out of easy money. They only come out of hibernation when the market corrects.

This last market correction has given us some great opportunities ... the ones that stand out most to me are:


BSPM -- under $4 is a great entry, now trading on the Naz.
CCME -- under $12 is a joke, easiest money in town.
CCLWF -- at $1 these are one of the best buys in town. looking for $2.75-$3.50 by end of year ... these are warrants.
CKGT -- under $2 is laughable
CNAM -- under $5 is a great entry.
CNYD -- like it under $12.
DJSP -- still cheap.
LIWA -- great entry price now.
LPIH -- under $2.50 this is a must-own
NEWN -- easy double, at least.
SIAF -- under $1 is great, under .80 is even better .... if they're legit. Audited financials should be out soon.
SKBI -- cheap again.
TSTC -- under $11 i'll take it ... have been buying already.
YONG -- great entry price now.
YUII -- liked it under $9, really like it under $8.
ZSTN -- like it under $6.


Q1 Financials for a lot of these companies will be coming out over the next few weeks ... best to take a sizeable position ahead of (hopefully) strong earnings in most of these names. Buy any weakness after earnings if they report strong numbers.

:toast:
k,thanks for the info,i really appreciate it :toast:
 

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Yeah, CCME filed an NT-10Q yesterday that hinted at insane revenues for Q1 ... better than Q4, and Q4 is their strongest Q and Q1 is their weakest Q ... so, $2+ EPS this year is definitely possible which clearly makes this at least a $20 stock ... but with this kind of growth, a $40 price tag isnt unreasonable.

:toast:

Hi,
I bought CCME for while ago when you first mentioned it. Spend of my account balance which is not a lot.. I paid $13.84 for it and waiting for it to higher...
thank you.
Sammy
 

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Thank you for all your input and valued posts..all; especially Kuwl..>>

My main question remains why the PE or assumed PE of many Chinese stocks can approach 2; be much lower than 10; which is insanely low; unless you feel the world is going Mayan and will end in 2012..

Keep up the good work..>>

fwiw; I think the powers have bought some time and the short to intermediate term outlook is bullish for world bourses...

jmho

gl

:howdy:
 

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Kewl, what do you think of EAR now? It's been getting hammered.


Yeah, weak numbers yet again, but I really wasnt expecting strong numbers until Q2/Q3 ... listened to their Con Call the other day and management is turning the company in the right direction. They lost some contracts, but the AARP contract is the main reason I'm bullish on EAR. The AARP program has only taken place in 5 states now I believe and it'll be in at least 30 states by the end of the year. This will make a huge difference in their financials.

I've been accumulating on the recent weakness ... this is a long-term hold though, dont expect instant-returns. Like I said in another post (possibly on a different thread), this is gonna be a 5-bagger, maybe more. Just a matter of time before the AARP contract starts showing up in their earnings. 3-5 year price target is $5+ imo.
 

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Hi,
I bought CCME for while ago when you first mentioned it. Spend of my account balance which is not a lot.. I paid $13.84 for it and waiting for it to higher...
thank you.
Sammy


If you can keep a long-term investment-minded strategy, you'll do absolutely wonderful with CCME. Still think $20 in June isnt out of the question ... long-term i think $30-40 is in the cards, probably not until Q1 next year.
 

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is there still anything good to say about cgdi
or are they dead
is there are chance they report their financials and move up ?
 

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