the way i see it
Penn State has the talent and depth this year to compete with anyone.
should run it!!
I still believe Florida is the best one loss team left. will dominate from here on in!!
Alabama's schedule will eliminate them.
Usc will struggle with Cal or Stanford
Kansas will beat Texas
Oklahoma is the wild card here? not sure how they will react to the texas game ......
FLORIDA vs. PENN ST.
BCS
Penn State has the talent and depth this year to compete with anyone.
should run it!!
I still believe Florida is the best one loss team left. will dominate from here on in!!
Alabama's schedule will eliminate them.
Usc will struggle with Cal or Stanford
Kansas will beat Texas
Oklahoma is the wild card here? not sure how they will react to the texas game ......
FLORIDA vs. PENN ST.
BCS
For some reason I forgot to post the tier 2 teams going into the week.
(Remember, according to the rules all tier 1 teams would have to be eliminated before any tier 2 teams are considered. This has only happened once, last year with LSU.)
Tier 2 teams:
Tulsa
Ball State
Utah
BYU (eliminated on Thursday)
Boise
Wake -1
BC -1
Fla. St. -1
Va. Tech -1
UNC -1
Ga. Tech -1
Kansas -1
UConn -1
Pitt -1
Cincy -1
Mich. St. -1
N'W -1
Minn. -1
Cal -1
Vandy -1
(Remember, according to the rules all tier 1 teams would have to be eliminated before any tier 2 teams are considered. This has only happened once, last year with LSU.)
Tier 2 teams:
Tulsa
Ball State
Utah
BYU (eliminated on Thursday)
Boise
Wake -1
BC -1
Fla. St. -1
Va. Tech -1
UNC -1
Ga. Tech -1
Kansas -1
UConn -1
Pitt -1
Cincy -1
Mich. St. -1
N'W -1
Minn. -1
Cal -1
Vandy -1
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Green D,
How much longer can we keep the Mountain West out of the bcs?
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This process is refined every year and is an attempt to impartially analyze team's realistic chances. Last year, we saw the first-ever two-loss team advance to the BCS championship game (LSU), thus the retrofitting and adding of tier 2 in an attempt to increase the accuracy.
As it stands right now the MWC falls in the secondary conferences alongside the MAC, Sun Belt, WAC, and Independents in Tier 2. These teams cannot "move up" to tier 1 and therefore their only opportunity to play in the BCS game under current constraints is if less than two teams remain in tier 1.
I agree completely with jwunderdog in his assessment. Outside of South Florida, an undefeated tier 2 team will not jump over any of the 12 teams in front of them without them losing.
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Green D,
How much longer can we keep the Mountain West out of the bcs?
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->You are going to need 12 of those 13 teams to lose 2 games before the MWC even gets a look when it comes to the BCS.
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RX Senior
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Greenwich,England
Posts: 4,280
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->You are going to need 12 of those 13 teams to lose 2 games before the MWC even gets a look when it comes to the BCS.
<!-- / message --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
This process is refined every year and is an attempt to impartially analyze team's realistic chances. Last year, we saw the first-ever two-loss team advance to the BCS championship game (LSU), thus the retrofitting and adding of tier 2 in an attempt to increase the accuracy.
As it stands right now the MWC falls in the secondary conferences alongside the MAC, Sun Belt, WAC, and Independents in Tier 2. These teams cannot "move up" to tier 1 and therefore their only opportunity to play in the BCS game under current constraints is if less than two teams remain in tier 1.
I agree completely with jwunderdog in his assessment. Outside of South Florida, an undefeated tier 2 team will not jump over any of the 12 teams in front of them without them losing.
<TABLE class=tborder id=post20607 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt3 id=td_post_20607 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid">Update after the weekend's action:
Tier 1 loses just one team as Missouri falls completely out of contention.
Tier 2 is chopped all the way from 20 to 11 teams.
The following teams outside shot at championship dreams is over:
Wake
Va. Tech
UNC
Kansas
UConn
Mich. St.
BYU
Cal
Vandy<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
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Tier 1 loses just one team as Missouri falls completely out of contention.
Tier 2 is chopped all the way from 20 to 11 teams.
The following teams outside shot at championship dreams is over:
Wake
Va. Tech
UNC
Kansas
UConn
Mich. St.
BYU
Cal
Vandy<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
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Remaining Tier 2 teams and matchups:
Tulsa
Ball St.
Utah
Boise
Fla. St. -1
BC -1
Ga. Tech -1
Pitt -1
Cincy -1
N'W -1
Minn. -1
Boise at SJ St.
Minn. at Purdue
E. Mich. at Ball St.
N'W at Indiana
Cincy at UConn
BC at UNC
Rutgers at Pitt
So. Fla. at L'Ville
Va. Tech at Fla. St.
UVA at Ga. Tech
UCF at Tulsa<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
Tulsa
Ball St.
Utah
Boise
Fla. St. -1
BC -1
Ga. Tech -1
Pitt -1
Cincy -1
N'W -1
Minn. -1
Boise at SJ St.
Minn. at Purdue
E. Mich. at Ball St.
N'W at Indiana
Cincy at UConn
BC at UNC
Rutgers at Pitt
So. Fla. at L'Ville
Va. Tech at Fla. St.
UVA at Ga. Tech
UCF at Tulsa<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
Update through October 28:
Three teams were eliminated from tier 1.
Ohio State moved from tier 1 to tier 2.
South Florida and LSU both moved from tier 1 to tier 3.
Five teams moved from tier 2 to tier 3:
Boston College
Ga. Tech
Pitt
Cincy
Northwestern
Oklahoma State remained in tier 1, despite a loss.
Three teams were eliminated from tier 1.
Ohio State moved from tier 1 to tier 2.
South Florida and LSU both moved from tier 1 to tier 3.
Five teams moved from tier 2 to tier 3:
Boston College
Ga. Tech
Pitt
Cincy
Northwestern
Oklahoma State remained in tier 1, despite a loss.
This week's upcoming games of importance, including two huge Tier 1 vs. Tier 1 matchups:
Ark. St. at 'Bama
Iowa St. at Okla. St.
*Florida at Georgia
Washington at USC
*Texas at Texas Tech
Nebraska at Oklahoma
N'W at Minnesota
Tulsa at Arkansas
Fla. St. at Ga. Tech
Boise St. at N. M. St.
Utah at New Mex.
Ark. St. at 'Bama
Iowa St. at Okla. St.
*Florida at Georgia
Washington at USC
*Texas at Texas Tech
Nebraska at Oklahoma
N'W at Minnesota
Tulsa at Arkansas
Fla. St. at Ga. Tech
Boise St. at N. M. St.
Utah at New Mex.
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CERTS...refreshing!
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Remaining tier 1 teams (i.e. BCS title game contenders):
Texas
Texas Tech
Penn State
Alabama
Oklahoma -1
Oklahoma State -1
Georgia -1
Florida -1
USC -1
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Amazing that four of the top contenders are all in the same division in the Big 12. This could actually hurt their chances as they may all beat up on each other, and the best team may not even make it to the conference championship game and when they do will not get to face another top contender.
CERTS...refreshing!
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Remaining tier 1 teams (i.e. BCS title game contenders):
Texas
Texas Tech
Penn State
Alabama
Oklahoma -1
Oklahoma State -1
Georgia -1
Florida -1
USC -1
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Amazing that four of the top contenders are all in the same division in the Big 12. This could actually hurt their chances as they may all beat up on each other, and the best team may not even make it to the conference championship game and when they do will not get to face another top contender.
<TABLE class=tborder id=post5890565 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid">10-16-2008, 11:36 AM <!-- / status icon and date --></TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid" align=right>#17 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 0px solid" width=175>Railbird<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_5890565", true); </SCRIPT>
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Green D,
How much longer can we keep the Mountain West out of the bcs?
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RX Senior
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Greenwich,England
Posts: 4,280
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->You are going to need 12 of those 13 teams to lose 2 games before the MWC even gets a look when it comes to the BCS.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- / message -->
This process is refined every year and is an attempt to impartially analyze team's realistic chances. Last year, we saw the first-ever two-loss team advance to the BCS championship game (LSU), thus the retrofitting and adding of tier 2 in an attempt to increase the accuracy.
As it stands right now the MWC falls in the secondary conferences alongside the MAC, Sun Belt, WAC, and Independents in Tier 2. These teams cannot "move up" to tier 1 and therefore their only opportunity to play in the BCS game under current constraints is if less than two teams remain in tier 1.
I agree completely with jwunderdog in his assessment. Outside of South Florida, an undefeated tier 2 team will not jump over any of the 12 teams in front of them without them losing.
WTF is the ACC and Big East allowed in the BCS? and not the MW? Oh I know, something call EAST COAST BIAS.
Rail,
Keep in mind that the BCS was formed in 1998. Without going back and verifying, it's likely that the ACC and Big East had some football powers back then and in recent history (ACC= Fla. St., Va. Tech, Ga. Tech, Big East= Miami-Fla., WVU).
Not sure of the timeline but I believe Miami was in the Big East at that time or shortly before.
As time goes on and those conference move up or down in strength, hopefully the BCS will see fit to adjust for this. Like anything else in sports or life though, most things don't get fixed for a couple years after the fact.
When was the Bowl Championship Series formed?
Prior to the 1998 football regular season, the FedEx Orange, Nokia Sugar, Rose and Tostitos Fiesta Bowls joined with the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pacific-10 and Southeastern Conferences and the University of Notre Dame to form the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). In 2004, Conference USA, Sun Belt, Mid-American, Mountain West and Western Athletic conferences joined the BCS.
As you see, the original formation was updated in 2004 and should the conference's power continue to shift there may be a need for further adjustment.
<HR width="100%">
Keep in mind that the BCS was formed in 1998. Without going back and verifying, it's likely that the ACC and Big East had some football powers back then and in recent history (ACC= Fla. St., Va. Tech, Ga. Tech, Big East= Miami-Fla., WVU).
Not sure of the timeline but I believe Miami was in the Big East at that time or shortly before.
As time goes on and those conference move up or down in strength, hopefully the BCS will see fit to adjust for this. Like anything else in sports or life though, most things don't get fixed for a couple years after the fact.
When was the Bowl Championship Series formed?
Prior to the 1998 football regular season, the FedEx Orange, Nokia Sugar, Rose and Tostitos Fiesta Bowls joined with the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pacific-10 and Southeastern Conferences and the University of Notre Dame to form the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). In 2004, Conference USA, Sun Belt, Mid-American, Mountain West and Western Athletic conferences joined the BCS.
As you see, the original formation was updated in 2004 and should the conference's power continue to shift there may be a need for further adjustment.
<HR width="100%">
There are still human factors evident in the BCS as represented by the previously discussed "historical bias" and "early loss bias". However, it is a constantly evolving formula, albeit evolving at a snail's pace.
<HR width="100%">
<HR width="100%">
How has access been improved for schools from conferences that do not have automatic berths?
From the very beginning, the BCS bowls have been open to all Division I-Aconferences and institutions. Members of those conferences whose champions don't have annual automatic bids to the BCS bowls now have an even greater chance of qualifying for one because:
A conference champion will play in a BCS game if it is ranked among the top 12 teams in the final BCS standings. Previously, a team had to finish in the top six to earn an automatic berth.
The 2006 expansion of the BCS field from eight to ten teams doubled the number of potential at-large spots from two to four. Any Division I-A program can qualify for at-large consideration if it wins nine or more games and is ranked 14 or higher in the BCS standings.
<HR width="100%">
<HR width="100%">
How has access been improved for schools from conferences that do not have automatic berths?
From the very beginning, the BCS bowls have been open to all Division I-Aconferences and institutions. Members of those conferences whose champions don't have annual automatic bids to the BCS bowls now have an even greater chance of qualifying for one because:
A conference champion will play in a BCS game if it is ranked among the top 12 teams in the final BCS standings. Previously, a team had to finish in the top six to earn an automatic berth.
The 2006 expansion of the BCS field from eight to ten teams doubled the number of potential at-large spots from two to four. Any Division I-A program can qualify for at-large consideration if it wins nine or more games and is ranked 14 or higher in the BCS standings.
