BBB's NHL consecutive over/under system thread for November (25-5 in October)

[bluebirdsbaby]

Saturday, November 29, 2008 plays

Saturday, November 29, 2008 plays:

LIST:
UNDER 5.5 - Vancouver at Calgary to win 1 (Game 1)
OVER 5.5 - Tampa Bay at Colorado to win 1 (Game 1)
UNDER 5.5 - Minnesota at Nashville to win 1 (Game 1)
UNDER 5.5 - Ottawa at NY Islanders to win 4.56 (Game 3) *** CONFLICT, DO NOT PLAY
OVER 5.5 - Ottawa at NY Islanders to win 4.29 (Game 3) *** CONFLICT, DO NOT PLAY
OVER 5.5 - Edmonton at St. Louis to win 3.94 (Game 3)

*** CONFLICT on Game 3 here means we must concede a loss. Subtract the difference, and play the UNDER for that amount. On paper, it should be a 0.27 unit play on the UNDER.

DETAILS:
DATE H/A TEAM OPPONENT LINE OVER UNDER RESULT DESCRIPTION
11/22/08 H Calgary 2 Detroit 5 5.5 105 -115 O
11/25/08 H Calgary 6 Los Angeles 2 5.5 100 -110 O
11/27/08 A Calgary 4 Vancouver 3 5.5 -106 -104 O
11/29/08 H Calgary Vancouver

11/24/08 A Colorado 1 Anaheim 4 5.5 103 -113 U
11/26/08 H Colorado 3 St. Louis 1 5.5 105 -115 U
11/28/08 A Colorado 1 Phoenix 2 5.5 108 -118 U
11/29/08 H Colorado Tampa Bay

11/24/08 H Minnesota 4 Washington 3 5.5 130 -140 O
11/26/08 H Minnesota 3 Dallas 4 5.5 128 -138 O
11/28/08 H Minnesota 4 Tampa Bay 2 5 -114 104 O
11/29/08 A Minnesota Nashville

11/21/08 A NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 5 5 -111 101 O
11/22/08 A NY Islanders 4 Buffalo 2 5.5 -101 -109 O
11/24/08 A NY Islanders 4 Montreal 3 5.5 110 -120 O
11/26/08 H NY Islanders 3 Pittsburgh 5 5.5 -111 101 O GAME 1: CONFLICT, DID NOT PLAY
11/28/08 A NY Islanders 2 Boston 7 5.5 118 -128 O GAME 2: LOST -2.56 UNITS
11/29/08 H NY Islanders Ottawa

11/13/08 H Ottawa 1 NY Islanders 3 5.5 -101 -109 U
11/15/08 A Ottawa 2 NY Islanders 3 5.5 105 -115 U
11/17/08 A Ottawa 1 NY Rangers 2 5 -120 110 U
11/20/08 H Ottawa 2 Montreal 3 5.5 105 -115 U GAME 1: LOST -0.95 UNITS
11/22/08 H Ottawa 4 NY Rangers 1 5 -130 120 P GAME 2: PUSH
11/27/08 H Ottawa 2 Toronto 1 5.5 -120 110 U GAME 2: LOST -2.34 UNITS
11/29/08 A Ottawa NY Islanders

11/16/08 H St. Louis 2 Montreal 3 5.5 -127 117 U
11/21/08 H St. Louis 3 Anaheim 2 5.5 116 -126 U
11/22/08 A St. Louis 2 Minnesota 1 5 -115 105 U
11/25/08 A St. Louis 1 Nashville 0 5.5 -102 -108 U GAME 1: LOST -1.02 UNITS
11/26/08 A St. Louis 1 Colorado 3 5.5 105 -115 U GAME 2: LOST -1.92 UNITS
11/29/08 H St. Louis Edmonton

 

[heart222]

Hi Seems to me your hung up on the game 1 idea. if most streaks go not more than 8. then starting at game 5 would produce superior results. so you win 15 units on game 1 to losses of 3 in a row martingale wipe your game 1 wins out. i mentioned nba because it is similar to hockey on o/u month of nov i had 15 bets won 11 if i had stared at 4 losses i would have 10 more losses and not nearly enough wins something like 6 more. i think you want more action for thime ittakes to d othe posting. Im + 7 units and pretty happy. As for the martingale why have to win 6 sets to cover one bad streak. this way I treat every game as a stand alone i dont need to recover one bad run. my basic premisis less action less exsposure. again i appreciate the work you do and sorry to see it didnt work out this year. i think more than the penalty face-off rule the smaller goalie eqipment is making a slight differance best of luck as always heart222

 

[NumberFreak]

You're correct heart, and that was my point as well. The longer you wait to jump into a streak, the closer you are to the end (in theory) and less losses you will incur with a 3-game chase. If the longest ever was 13, and you start at 12, you'd be undefeated. Problem is you lose about half the opportunities each game longer that you wait to jump in.

BBB, not sure why these NHL teams are so streaky except that all teams fall into patterns and with hockey totals, you don't have much leeway to start with. Without checking I would say most hockey games fall between 4-8 total goals. Compared to basketball, football, and even baseball, it's easier to amass consecutive overs/unders when you only have a small handfull of numbers a game can land on.

Streaks are a dangerous thing and a Martingale strategy can be fuel to the fire. I was a chase guy for a long time myself when I was too stubborn to see that it served me better to hit a high rate of individual games and use either flat betting or a safer progression that handled losing streaks better and gave me a solid R.O.I.

I wish you luck BBB, you seem like a class act and a straight forward guy.

 

[ethancraft50]

You're correct heart, and that was my point as well. The longer you wait to jump into a streak, the closer you are to the end (in theory) and less losses you will incur with a 3-game chase. If the longest ever was 13, and you start at 12, you'd be undefeated. Problem is you lose about half the opportunities each game longer that you wait to jump in.

BBB, not sure why these NHL teams are so streaky except that all teams fall into patterns and with hockey totals, you don't have much leeway to start with. Without checking I would say most hockey games fall between 4-8 total goals. Compared to basketball, football, and even baseball, it's easier to amass consecutive overs/unders when you only have a small handfull of numbers a game can land on.

Streaks are a dangerous thing and a Martingale strategy can be fuel to the fire. I was a chase guy for a long time myself when I was too stubborn to see that it served me better to hit a high rate of individual games and use either flat betting or a safer progression that handled losing streaks better and gave me a solid R.O.I.

I wish you luck BBB, you seem like a class act and a straight forward guy.

What do u recommend as an alternative?
And what is a safer progression? Labouchere chase?
Is there really any way to debunk long streaks?

 

[heart222]

hi if you must use something why not use 1, 1.5 and 2. its really no differantthan a roulettetable black and red or dice table. each game is stand alone. im happyier with 1-1-1. i dont have to get even just not get destroyed. my thoughts for whatthere wort. gl

 

[heart222]

Having a quiet morning I went thru your u and o. if you waited for 4 games you would have been 25-30 and if you waited for 5 games you would have been 10-14 this did not allow for conflicts but the bottom line is for what ever reason this wasnt going to work this year. several teams had those runs of 8 to 10 games whic heven with a 3 game loss would have been devestating. just possibly the books were telling us something because it seems like a majority o f the games were 5.5 which dosent seem the same as last couple of years. it may just be statistical anomily but this year is not happening. ottowa is 5-10 and minn etc. anyhow nothing seems to work for what its worth. regards as always heart222

 

[bluebirdsbaby]

Sunday, November 30, 2008 plays

Sunday, November 30, 2008 plays:

LIST:
UNDER 5.5 - St. Louis at Atlanta to win 1 (Game 1)
OVER 5.5 - Anaheim at Carolina to win 1 (Game 1)
UNDER 5.5 - Edmonton at Dallas to win 1 (Game 1)
OVER 5.5 - Anaheim at Carolina to win 2.06 (Game 2)

DETAILS:
DATE H/A TEAM OPPONENT LINE OVER UNDER RESULT DESCRIPTION
11/25/08 A Atlanta 6 Toronto 3 6 -128 118 O
11/26/08 A Atlanta 3 Washington 5 6 -113 103 O
11/28/08 H Atlanta 3 Nashville 4 5.5 -120 110 O
11/30/08 H Atlanta St. Louis

11/24/08 A Carolina 2 Florida 3 5.5 115 -125 U
11/26/08 H Carolina 1 Philadelphia 3 5.5 -117 107 U
11/28/08 A Carolina 3 Philadelphia 2 5.5 -114 104 U
11/30/08 H Carolina Anaheim

11/24/08 A Dallas 3 Philadelphia 4 5.5 -115 105 O
11/26/08 A Dallas 4 Minnesota 3 5.5 128 -138 O
11/28/08 H Dallas 2 San Jose 6 5.5 -108 -102 O
11/30/08 H Dallas Edmonton

11/21/08 A Anaheim 2 St. Louis 3 5.5 116 -126 U
11/22/08 A Anaheim 2 Dallas 1 5.5 115 -125 U
11/24/08 H Anaheim 4 Colorado 1 5.5 103 -113 U
11/28/08 H Anaheim 1 Chicago 0 5.5 -106 -104 U GAME 1: LOST -1.06 UNITS
11/30/08 A Anaheim Carolina




I know that two of these games have started already, but the one FINAL is a LOSS and the other one is still very early in the game. Can't really fudge the record when your posting late losers. Good luck tonight on the double play.

Number Freak and heart, I will reply in depth tonight... as well as an update of Saturday and Sunday nights results.

 

[NumberFreak]

What do u recommend as an alternative?
And what is a safer progression? Labouchere chase?
Is there really any way to debunk long streaks?

Ugh! I just typed a long detailed reply and must have timed out so I lost it all. I'll be briefer now.

The best defense against long losing streaks is simply a high individual game win rate. These are the chances of losing 5 straight games at win rates between 50-70%:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 96pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=128 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=2 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 20.25pt" height=27><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 20.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=64 height=27 x:num>50</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=64 x:num="3.125E-2" x:fmla="=0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5">3.13%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 20.25pt" height=27><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 20.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=27 x:num>55</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.8452812500000006E-2" x:fmla="=0.45*0.45*0.45*0.45*0.45">1.85%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 20.25pt" height=27><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 20.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=27 x:num>60</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.0240000000000004E-2" x:fmla="=0.4*0.4*0.4*0.4*0.4">1.02%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 20.25pt" height=27><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 20.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=27 x:num>65</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="5.2521874999999982E-3" x:fmla="=0.35*0.35*0.35*0.35*0.35">0.53%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 20.25pt" height=27><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 20.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=27 x:num>70</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2.4299999999999999E-3" x:fmla="=0.3*0.3*0.3*0.3*0.3">0.24%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The more often you win, obviously the less susceptible you are to a long losing streak. As far as chases, there's really no reason to play them because if your win rate is strong enough to win by flat-betting then why risk your entire bankroll by chasing losses? If you can't beat flat-betting, then your win rate is too low and therefore too risky for a chase based on the above numbers. For example, if your individual games hit 50%, you would lose a 3-game chase 12.5% of the time, or 1 in 8. So, if each series loss loses you 8 units it's not helping you is it?

Martingale is the riskiest (worst) progression out there. The key to testing any progression is your return on investment. Calculate your total wagers and divide by your profit/loss, then compare that to flat-betting the same games. You'll figure out that you're not helping yourself. That's assuming the standard progressions that have been around forever like Martingale, Labourchere, D'Alembert, etc. I've tested progressions most of my betting life and found a style that seems to outperform flat-betting, at least so far, but you have to add variables to it. For example, Labourchere has several variables such as deciding how to set up your betting line, i.e. length and amounts. I personally do not like the Labourchere though.

 

[ethancraft50]

I am not big on labourchere as well. I have seen some people use it with success, but the length of the line and the layout gets confusinig on a long streak.

Maybe instead of going against the streak after 3 games, we should go with the streak...

 

[bluebirdsbaby]

Saturday, November 29, 2008 results

LIST:
UNDER 5.5 - Vancouver 1 at Calgary 3 - WON 1 unit
OVER 5.5 - Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 - WON 1 unit
UNDER 5.5 - Minnesota 6 at Nashville 2 - LOST -1.45 units
UNDER 5.5 - Ottawa 2 at NY Islanders 4 - LOST -0.32 units (CONFLICT, REDUCED BET). SERIES LOSS.
OVER 5.5 - Ottawa 2 at NY Islanders 4 - CONFLICT, DID NOT PLAY
OVER 5.5 - Edmonton 4 at St. Louis 2 - WON 3.94 units
TOTAL - 3-2-0 for +4.17 units.

UPDATED RECORDS:
GAME 1: 27-39-0
GAME 2: 16-21-2
GAME 3: 9-14-0
TOTAL PLAYS: 52-74-2 (41.3%)
SERIES RECORD: 61-14 (-41.83 units)


The NY Islanders series had a Game 1 conflict. Therefore, when their series ends, we adjust the total to 2-0 if it wins, and 1-1 if it loses. I have adjusted the series record accordingly.

 

[bluebirdsbaby]

Sunday, November 30, 2008 results

LIST:
UNDER 5.5 - St. Louis 4 at Atlanta 2 - LOST -0.98 units
OVER 5.5 - Anaheim 4 at Carolina 1 - LOST -0.89 units
UNDER 5.5 - Edmonton 3 at Dallas 4 - LOST -0.91 units
OVER 5.5 - Anaheim 4 at Carolina 1 - LOST -1.84 units
TOTAL - 0-4-0 for -4.62 units.

UPDATED RECORDS:
GAME 1: 27-42-0
GAME 2: 16-22-2
GAME 3: 9-14-0
TOTAL PLAYS: 52-78-2 (40.0%)
SERIES RECORD: 61-14 (-46.45 units)

 

[bluebirdsbaby]

December thread

The December thread can be found here:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=6094797​

I will be replying to your messages in that thread. Hopefully we can continue this discussion over there.