MONDAY, Nov 10
PACER teamtotal Over 104 (-110) vs Thunder $9
Indy past 20 Home games vs bottom half of league has topped 104 14 times with an average of 110 per game.
They're also just 7-13 ats when graded at -11.5 in same role, so this creates a good setup for an Over 197. But we'll wait until halftime and see if we can buy into a better number.
Best to us all for a profitable Monday
PACER teamtotal Over 104 (-110) vs Thunder $9
Indy past 20 Home games vs bottom half of league has topped 104 14 times with an average of 110 per game.
They're also just 7-13 ats when graded at -11.5 in same role, so this creates a good setup for an Over 197. But we'll wait until halftime and see if we can buy into a better number.
Best to us all for a profitable Monday
BEAR/SUN Over 196.5 $7
BEAR/SUN 1H Over 96.5 $7
SUN teamtotal Over 104 $7
Phoenix past 19 playing Home After Away, vs teams from bottom half of league average 118.5 per game.
With the Line Match, this invites a score of 118-107. Doubtful it gets that high due to Memphis being a below average offensive team. But the 1H looks very plausible at about a 55-48 and then the Suns can take it from there. Decent lean to PHX -11, but will pass in favor of this very attractive trifecta of Overs.
BEAR/SUN 1H Over 96.5 $7
SUN teamtotal Over 104 $7
Phoenix past 19 playing Home After Away, vs teams from bottom half of league average 118.5 per game.
With the Line Match, this invites a score of 118-107. Doubtful it gets that high due to Memphis being a below average offensive team. But the 1H looks very plausible at about a 55-48 and then the Suns can take it from there. Decent lean to PHX -11, but will pass in favor of this very attractive trifecta of Overs.
JUMPING Ahead to
TUESDAY, Nov 11
BULL -3 (-110) vs Hawk $11
Atlanta managed to squeeze by the lowly Thunder despite loss of Josh Smith, but now they're facing a legitimate playoff contender and they'll need some amazing fortune to stay close in this one. Absence of K Hinrich is not overlooked on our end. We simply think the Bulls are just about as good with Ben Gordon getting more minutes and a constantly improving Rose.
Hawks first time this season to play Away After Away - a role in which they've won just four times in their past 20 chances.
TUESDAY, Nov 11
BULL -3 (-110) vs Hawk $11
Atlanta managed to squeeze by the lowly Thunder despite loss of Josh Smith, but now they're facing a legitimate playoff contender and they'll need some amazing fortune to stay close in this one. Absence of K Hinrich is not overlooked on our end. We simply think the Bulls are just about as good with Ben Gordon getting more minutes and a constantly improving Rose.
Hawks first time this season to play Away After Away - a role in which they've won just four times in their past 20 chances.
Random NOTES for Nov 11
MILW going back to beginning of last season is just 15-50 when playing on either 0 or 1Day rest. They are 14-10 when playing on 2+Days rest
In previous season, they were 17-43 in former role and 11-11 in the latter role.
Combined that's 32-93 when playing 0 or 1DaysRest and 25-21 on 2+DaysRest
We'll note that this is an unusual spread of results in that leaguewide the best records for most teams is found in the 1DayRest.
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DENVER past 25 playing Away After Home are just 7-18 SU and 6-19 when graded at -3.5
CHARLOTTE past 34 Home with rest are 19-15 and 22-12 when graded at +3.5
Given the Nuggets are surely still getting their rhythm with Billups, it doesn't look like the best of spots for them to overcome this wide disparity.
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MILW going back to beginning of last season is just 15-50 when playing on either 0 or 1Day rest. They are 14-10 when playing on 2+Days rest
In previous season, they were 17-43 in former role and 11-11 in the latter role.
Combined that's 32-93 when playing 0 or 1DaysRest and 25-21 on 2+DaysRest
We'll note that this is an unusual spread of results in that leaguewide the best records for most teams is found in the 1DayRest.
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DENVER past 25 playing Away After Home are just 7-18 SU and 6-19 when graded at -3.5
CHARLOTTE past 34 Home with rest are 19-15 and 22-12 when graded at +3.5
Given the Nuggets are surely still getting their rhythm with Billups, it doesn't look like the best of spots for them to overcome this wide disparity.
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ADDING for Tuesday
STATE -6 (-110) vs Wolf $7
Warriors a nice bounce back team After Scoring under 100 pts, covering four of past six by more than six points and 11 of past 17
Mix in their Home Scoring average vs BottomHalf Teams (115 in past 20) and we'll look for them to put on their second strong Home cover of the young season to date.
STATE -6 (-110) vs Wolf $7
Warriors a nice bounce back team After Scoring under 100 pts, covering four of past six by more than six points and 11 of past 17
Mix in their Home Scoring average vs BottomHalf Teams (115 in past 20) and we'll look for them to put on their second strong Home cover of the young season to date.
ADDING our first 3TeamParlay of the season, something I only do when I want to use a moneyline favorite and want to keep my exposure low
SIXAH -170 vs Jazz (just got a nagging feeling Utah might slip in back door here)
BUCK +12 (-110) vs Cav
KING +7.5 (-105) vs Piston
Lay 5
Pays 24.23
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SIXAH -170 vs Jazz (just got a nagging feeling Utah might slip in back door here)
BUCK +12 (-110) vs Cav
KING +7.5 (-105) vs Piston
Lay 5
Pays 24.23
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Again JUMPING AHEAD a night...this time to
Wednesday, Nov 12
IRISH -10.5 (-110) vs Hawk $11
Exact same reasoning as tonight's early booked Chicago wager vs Hawks.
With Josh Smith out, the Atlantas should find it a real tussle to top 90 points on the road vs decent teams. And by the time they tip off versus the fully rested Bostons on Wednesday, the Hawks should be prime for a severe Celtic defensive beatdown. We'll be quite startled if they can bust 85 points, leaving the champs only needing 96 to get this one - a fairly believeable task given rested Home court and again the lack of J Smith on the defensive front line.
Wednesday, Nov 12
IRISH -10.5 (-110) vs Hawk $11
Exact same reasoning as tonight's early booked Chicago wager vs Hawks.
With Josh Smith out, the Atlantas should find it a real tussle to top 90 points on the road vs decent teams. And by the time they tip off versus the fully rested Bostons on Wednesday, the Hawks should be prime for a severe Celtic defensive beatdown. We'll be quite startled if they can bust 85 points, leaving the champs only needing 96 to get this one - a fairly believeable task given rested Home court and again the lack of J Smith on the defensive front line.
