Fortunately, I keep my feathers numbered for just such an occasion
.....but seriously folks...
As I hit last offseason, I had pledged to myself that "next season I will be much more selective on pregame wagers and instead focus more on playing in-game (2H, 3Q and 4Q) lines, especially with Totals.
For those who did not see what we were doing after Jan 1 this past spring, here's a short breakdown.
Beating Totals is most certainly easier if we wait until halftime and here's why.
Let's say we've capped out a game lined at 200 and we've got pretty good cause to play Over.
We can place a pregame wager of Over 200 at -110.
OR we can WAIT until halftime and see if the first half comes in at a number of 100 or below.
Let's say it finishes at 95.
And then the 2H Total is 101.5 (for one example).
If we bet NOW, we are effectively wagering against a Game Final of 196.5.
This is obviously preferable and it's nothing more or less than equivalent to a "tease" of the pregame line of 200.
The "risk" in applying this tactic is that the first half may come in at 100 or more and then we are effectively blocked out from playing the Total at all since if the first half comes in at (for example) 105 and the halftime line is 101.5, we are now at a Dis-advantage and betting 2H Over would be equivalent to beating Over 206.5
IN CONCLUSION, if this tactic is employed with increased frequency, we will place less Totals bets overall, but the ones which we do place will ALWAYS be versus a better Effective Number than playing pregame.
And now...Forward Into The Past!
MONDAY, Nov 3
STATE -130 at Bear $12
After losing at the Clippers in week one last season, Warriors were 11-4 Away vs non-playoff teams not named Portland.
This season so far, they're 1-0 if we can for the moment judge New Jersey in that slot of non-playoff calibre.
Warriors also in the 3rdin4 role of 2on, dayoff, On and in that role they've won eight of past 12.
Quite simply, they just greatly outnumber the Grizz with scoring talent and with nothing else schedule-wise to weigh them down, this should be a good spot to grab the SU road victory tonight.
Strong Lean to the Over 200, but per my last post, will wait until halftime and see if we can get in versus a better number.
MONDAY, Nov 3
STATE -130 at Bear $12
After losing at the Clippers in week one last season, Warriors were 11-4 Away vs non-playoff teams not named Portland.
This season so far, they're 1-0 if we can for the moment judge New Jersey in that slot of non-playoff calibre.
Warriors also in the 3rdin4 role of 2on, dayoff, On and in that role they've won eight of past 12.
Quite simply, they just greatly outnumber the Grizz with scoring talent and with nothing else schedule-wise to weigh them down, this should be a good spot to grab the SU road victory tonight.
Strong Lean to the Over 200, but per my last post, will wait until halftime and see if we can get in versus a better number.
BULL/MAGIC 2H Over 98 (-110) $7
KING/SIXAH 2H Undah 97 (-110) $9
Nice 16 pt overlay in the Philly game and with this 20 pt margin at halftime, we think Sixers can grind em down in 3Q and keep this one from getting to top 213.
Meanwhile, just liked the Orlando game to push 200 and this seems a fair spot to tryit, especially with so few made FTs in first half (14). Look for at least 24 made FTs in second half to help slow the clock and also carry this one up to where we want it.
KING/SIXAH 2H Undah 97 (-110) $9
Nice 16 pt overlay in the Philly game and with this 20 pt margin at halftime, we think Sixers can grind em down in 3Q and keep this one from getting to top 213.
Meanwhile, just liked the Orlando game to push 200 and this seems a fair spot to tryit, especially with so few made FTs in first half (14). Look for at least 24 made FTs in second half to help slow the clock and also carry this one up to where we want it.
Looking ahead to WEDNESDAY, Nov 5
I will be making a strong play on
SUN teamtotal Over 102 (or 102.5) at Wolf
Phoenix past two seasons playing Away vs teams who finish in bottom half of the league (we presume MIN will meet that bill) has seen 34 of 46 games where they scored Over 103
I let this Angle sail by tonight when they played at New Jersey but won't miss it again
Side Note - Suns play at Chicago on Friday, but I'm not ready to slot the Bulls as being a team that finishes in bottom half of league, so will likely Pass this Angle there. As for Saturday's game at Milwaukee, I have some other pretty strong numbers suggesting that Suns playing 3rdin4 and also 4thin5 on the road score lower than their normal pace. I'll review these further and report back before Saturday's game.
I will be making a strong play on
SUN teamtotal Over 102 (or 102.5) at Wolf
Phoenix past two seasons playing Away vs teams who finish in bottom half of the league (we presume MIN will meet that bill) has seen 34 of 46 games where they scored Over 103
I let this Angle sail by tonight when they played at New Jersey but won't miss it again
Side Note - Suns play at Chicago on Friday, but I'm not ready to slot the Bulls as being a team that finishes in bottom half of league, so will likely Pass this Angle there. As for Saturday's game at Milwaukee, I have some other pretty strong numbers suggesting that Suns playing 3rdin4 and also 4thin5 on the road score lower than their normal pace. I'll review these further and report back before Saturday's game.
Official plays for WED, Nov 5
SUN teamtotal Over 103 (-110) $12
KING -3 (-110) vs Bear $9
RAPTOR -3.5 (-110) vs Piston $9
CLIPPER +15 (-110) vs LakerGirls*
*Booked last night as part of a parlay with Ottawa NHL...so no dollar figure for my Bank, but selection stands.
2TeamParlay
KING -150
RAPTOR -175
Lay 5
Pays 8.10
-----------------
Best to us all for a profitable Wednesday
SUN teamtotal Over 103 (-110) $12
KING -3 (-110) vs Bear $9
RAPTOR -3.5 (-110) vs Piston $9
CLIPPER +15 (-110) vs LakerGirls*
*Booked last night as part of a parlay with Ottawa NHL...so no dollar figure for my Bank, but selection stands.
2TeamParlay
KING -150
RAPTOR -175
Lay 5
Pays 8.10
-----------------
Best to us all for a profitable Wednesday
With the Toronto selection failing, I am repacking the Kings into a straight bet
KING -2 (-110) vs Bear $12
Sacramento playing Home After Away is 14-3 SU since beginning of last season and 12-5 ats at -2
Sac at Home versus teams from bottom half of league is 14-5 since beginning of last season and 13-6 at -2
Memphis playing Away After Home is 5-19 since beginning of last season and 6-18 ats at +2
Also packing SAC ml (-130) into my 2Teamer O' Day thread (nhl forum)
KING -2 (-110) vs Bear $12
Sacramento playing Home After Away is 14-3 SU since beginning of last season and 12-5 ats at -2
Sac at Home versus teams from bottom half of league is 14-5 since beginning of last season and 13-6 at -2
Memphis playing Away After Home is 5-19 since beginning of last season and 6-18 ats at +2
Also packing SAC ml (-130) into my 2Teamer O' Day thread (nhl forum)
BEAR/KING 2H Over 96.5 (-110) $9
A modest seven point overlay vs game total of 192.
But more important, there's only been 10 made FTs so far in this one and only 34 made FGs. Grizz at just 37%, but Kings are at 54% and I expect to see that flatten a bit both ways
Second half
36+ FGs (5 treys) = 77
25+ FTs
A modest seven point overlay vs game total of 192.
But more important, there's only been 10 made FTs so far in this one and only 34 made FGs. Grizz at just 37%, but Kings are at 54% and I expect to see that flatten a bit both ways
Second half
36+ FGs (5 treys) = 77
25+ FTs
