Author NFL Football 2024-25

[uscmd]

Abt, I like your picks this week. BOL my friend.

Its been a really strange year. Bet vegas loves the dog parade.

 

[authorbytrade]

Still flipping quarters. Have to adjust my numbers even more on Jacksonville and Tennessee, those 2 teams are single-handedly responsible for my negative sum.

NFL Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4-3 = 57.1% = +0.8 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 4-5 = 44.4% = -1.5 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >)
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 9-3-1 = 75.0% = +5.7 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Totals OVER - 3-1 = 75.0% = +1.9 units
Totals UNDER - 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
2X Dogs - 0-2 = 0.0% = -4.4 units
Moneyline faves = 1-1 = 50% = -0.32 units
Moneyline dogs = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units
Live wagers = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.22

23 - 21 - 1 = 52.3% = -2.44 units

Speciality Wagers:

Teasers - 0-3 = 0.0% = -1.5 units
Prop Bets - 9-9 = 50.0% = -1.4 units

9 - 12 = 42.9% = -2.9 units

Overall - 32-33-1 = 49.2% = -5.34 units

 

[authorbytrade]

I am normally a dog bettor but the betting market has sucked the life out of dogs for most of the year. Outside of leaving some solid angles on the board in Week #3, for the most part, by my account, the betting market has been -1.1 ppg worse than it should have been for dogs so far. This is a surprising line adjustment. Today, home dogs went 0-7 SU and ATS, I can't recall seeing a day like that in the the history of my NFL wagering. I'm sure there have been similarly bad days for home dogs but today has to be amongst the worst of all time by sheer volume alone.

Let's hope the road favorites can't sweep the week...although there is a fair chance that due to what I wrote above combined with a "no way every home dog can lose" mentality from the public, and the HC being fired angle, that the Jets go off at Pick or as a slight fave. I bet them early in the week at +2.5 but for our purposes here will be taking the money line.

#288 New York Jets Moneyline (+102)

 

[authorbytrade]

For 10-20-24:

DeMario Douglas Over 50 yards receiving (+105)
#455 Tennessee Titans +9.5
#460 Green Bay -2.5 (-125)
#453 Seattle +3
#468 LA Rams -7
#472 San Francisco ML (-125)
#473 NY Jets -1.5

 

[indiana]

author.......good looking card buddy........
BOL with all your action today......indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Terrible week. Go from flipping quarters all year to getting beat up in one week.

NFL Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 5-3 = 62.5% = +1.8 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 4-6 = 40.0% = -2.6 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >)
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 9-4-1 = 69.2% = +4.6 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1-3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Totals OVER - 3-1 = 75.0% = +1.9 units
Totals UNDER - 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
2X Dogs - 0-2 = 0.0% = -4.4 units
Moneyline faves = 1-3 = 33.3% = -2.82units
Moneyline dogs = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2 units
Live wagers = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.22

24 - 27 - 1 = 47.1% = -8.24 units

Speciality Wagers:

Teasers - 0-3 = 0.0% = -1.5 units
Prop Bets - 9-10 = 47.4% = -2.4 units

9 - 13 = 40.9% = -3.9 units

Overall - 33-40-1 = 45.2% = -12.14 units

 

[authorbytrade]

For 10-21:

Mark Andrews Over 28.5 yards receiving (MGM)
He's still not getting the number of targets you'd like to see but his yards have been trending up and he's back to getting red zone looks. He's probably going to need 5 targets to get this number.

 

[authorbytrade]

Well, sometimes you wait it out and numbers hit your buy price. What can you do?

#476 Tampa Bay +4.5
#477 LA Chargers ML -112

 

[Loves2kickass]

On Tampa large tonight also. GL

 

[authorbytrade]

Running bad.

NFL Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 5-3 = 62.5% = +1.8 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 4-7 = 36.4% = -3.7 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >)
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 9-4-1 = 69.2% = +4.6 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1-3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Totals OVER - 3-1 = 75.0% = +1.9 units
Totals UNDER - 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
2X Dogs - 0-2 = 0.0% = -4.4 units
Moneyline faves = 1-4 = 20.0% = -3.94 units
Moneyline dogs = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2 units
Live wagers = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.22

24 - 29 - 1 = 45.3% = -10.46 units

Speciality Wagers:

Teasers - 0-3 = 0.0% = -1.5 units
Prop Bets - 10-10 = 50.0% = -1.4 units

10 - 13 = 43.5% = -2.9 units

Overall - 34-42-1 = 44.7% = -13.36units

 

[authorbytrade]

Going to be tough to get up of the mat for 2024.

#110 LA Rams +3

 

[authorbytrade]

Some props:

Aaron Jones Over 69.5 yards rushing (-115)
Matthew Stafford Over 34 passing attempts (-105)

 

[BoutMyMoney]

Good luck author

 

[authorbytrade]

NFL Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 6-3 = 66.7% = +2.8 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 4-7 = 36.4% = -3.7 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >)
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 9-4-1 = 69.2% = +4.6 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1-3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Totals OVER - 3-1 = 75.0% = +1.9 units
Totals UNDER - 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
2X Dogs - 0-2 = 0.0% = -4.4 units
Moneyline faves = 1-4 = 20.0% = -3.94 units
Moneyline dogs = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2 units
Live wagers = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.22

25 - 29 - 1 = 46.3% = -9.46 units

Speciality Wagers:

Teasers - 0-3 = 0.0% = -1.5 units
Prop Bets - 10-11-1 = 47.6% = -2.45 units

10 - 14 - 1 = 41.7% = -3.95 units

Overall - 35-43-2 = 44.9% = -13.41 units

 

[uscmd]

BOL abt

 

[authorbytrade]

#266 Baltimore/Cleveland OVER 44.5
#269 2X Indianapolis +5
#263 Tennessee +13.5 (-128)
#278 NY Jets/New England OVER 41
#284 2X Cincinnati -2.5

 

[authorbytrade]

#276 Washington -1
#286 Las Vegas +10 (-125)

 

[authorbytrade]

Live wager

LA Chargers Moneyline -230

 

[authorbytrade]

#290 Dallas/San Francisco UNDER 48

 

[authorbytrade]

#291 NY Giants +7 (-140)

Will be back to add some props