Adding:
Played Detroit -2.5 (-130) as well but added this one too. Probably extended myself a bit too much on juice this week but I was moving around key numbers and needed to focus on producing winners rather than efficiency.
#476 Atlanta +3.5 (-120) Missed the hook earlier in the week & it never came back. This is the best I could do off a flip side -120 line at a junk book.
Some half player prop bets for Sunday Night Football:
Travis Kelce anytime TD (+150)
Kelce has yet to eat this season and, as many predicted, has eased into a decline while taking advantage of benefits that are not football related. However, Kelce is still a key component in the league's best offense and has a fantastic personal and professional relationship with QB Mahomes. Mahomes made some interesting comments to the press about Kelce after LW's game and I expect him to effort to get Kelce across the goal line. They tried to get Kelce a cheap TD last week, running one of their favorite short yard TE screens but Kelce tripped up and fell just short of the goal line. They'll try again this week and be successful. With no Pacheco at RB and with the lack of a bully-ball physical type runner (neither Steele or Perine fit the bill) I think the Chiefs will throw in short yardage goal-to-go situations, and Kelce is likely to be the focus. I think Kelce gets 2 or more EZ targets this week, we just have to hope he catches on of them but at +150 I'll give it a shot.
Travis Kelce Over 4.5 receptions (-145)
Similar to the TD reasoning. With no Pacheco the Chiefs don't own a physical runner and likely will not want to expose Steele to severe carries or instances to avoid his potential injury. I think they revert to pre-Pacheco mode where they use their TE's as an extension of the running game and target, quick throws to their TE's on first down and in third and short situations. The other two TE's on the KC roster have been eating into Kelce's catches but I think Mahomes will need & want Kelce to have a good game here. The Falcons secondary is one of the best in the league and can cover WR's Worthy and Rice in ways that other teams cannot, and that will mean some exotic coverages for Mahomes to navigate and the potential for more dump-offs and quick looks. That should benefit Kelce especially when Perine is not in the game. Expect Mahomes to get Kelce involved early, like immediately, and I think Kelce gets at least one catch on the Chiefs first possession.
Falcons Ray Ray McCloud over 2.5 receptions (-138)
Falcons QB Cousins still didn't look completely comfortable in Week #2 and some noticed him still not pushing off his back foot when making throws. This isn't usually correctable in one week's time and he is still overcoming a severe Achille's injury sustained in his mid 30's....it's going to linger. I didn't notice it on throws but did notice Cousins seemingly labor to move to make extended handoffs. Normally, for other teams, this might lead me to look toward TE receiving props as the QB might use them as a escape valve BUT the Falcons deploy TE Pitts more like a WR and his route tree is different than most TE's due to his skill set. That leaves Ray Ray McCloud in the safety valve role and this showed in Week #1 and #2. When deployed by San Fran McCloud was always productive but buried on then depth chart, here he only has to ascend equally with Darnell Mooney, something much easier to do. McCloud had 4 catches in Week #1 and 3 catches in Week #3 but was targeted 12 combined times. I think the Chiefs will leave WR London in regular coverage and take the stance that Cousins will still struggle to get him the ball due to arm velocity, they will double and over/under Pitts just like the Eagles did. I think that splits about 10-12 looks between Mooney and McCloud and McClouds routes are shorter and completions easier.
Played Detroit -2.5 (-130) as well but added this one too. Probably extended myself a bit too much on juice this week but I was moving around key numbers and needed to focus on producing winners rather than efficiency.
#476 Atlanta +3.5 (-120) Missed the hook earlier in the week & it never came back. This is the best I could do off a flip side -120 line at a junk book.
Some half player prop bets for Sunday Night Football:
Travis Kelce anytime TD (+150)
Kelce has yet to eat this season and, as many predicted, has eased into a decline while taking advantage of benefits that are not football related. However, Kelce is still a key component in the league's best offense and has a fantastic personal and professional relationship with QB Mahomes. Mahomes made some interesting comments to the press about Kelce after LW's game and I expect him to effort to get Kelce across the goal line. They tried to get Kelce a cheap TD last week, running one of their favorite short yard TE screens but Kelce tripped up and fell just short of the goal line. They'll try again this week and be successful. With no Pacheco at RB and with the lack of a bully-ball physical type runner (neither Steele or Perine fit the bill) I think the Chiefs will throw in short yardage goal-to-go situations, and Kelce is likely to be the focus. I think Kelce gets 2 or more EZ targets this week, we just have to hope he catches on of them but at +150 I'll give it a shot.
Travis Kelce Over 4.5 receptions (-145)
Similar to the TD reasoning. With no Pacheco the Chiefs don't own a physical runner and likely will not want to expose Steele to severe carries or instances to avoid his potential injury. I think they revert to pre-Pacheco mode where they use their TE's as an extension of the running game and target, quick throws to their TE's on first down and in third and short situations. The other two TE's on the KC roster have been eating into Kelce's catches but I think Mahomes will need & want Kelce to have a good game here. The Falcons secondary is one of the best in the league and can cover WR's Worthy and Rice in ways that other teams cannot, and that will mean some exotic coverages for Mahomes to navigate and the potential for more dump-offs and quick looks. That should benefit Kelce especially when Perine is not in the game. Expect Mahomes to get Kelce involved early, like immediately, and I think Kelce gets at least one catch on the Chiefs first possession.
Falcons Ray Ray McCloud over 2.5 receptions (-138)
Falcons QB Cousins still didn't look completely comfortable in Week #2 and some noticed him still not pushing off his back foot when making throws. This isn't usually correctable in one week's time and he is still overcoming a severe Achille's injury sustained in his mid 30's....it's going to linger. I didn't notice it on throws but did notice Cousins seemingly labor to move to make extended handoffs. Normally, for other teams, this might lead me to look toward TE receiving props as the QB might use them as a escape valve BUT the Falcons deploy TE Pitts more like a WR and his route tree is different than most TE's due to his skill set. That leaves Ray Ray McCloud in the safety valve role and this showed in Week #1 and #2. When deployed by San Fran McCloud was always productive but buried on then depth chart, here he only has to ascend equally with Darnell Mooney, something much easier to do. McCloud had 4 catches in Week #1 and 3 catches in Week #3 but was targeted 12 combined times. I think the Chiefs will leave WR London in regular coverage and take the stance that Cousins will still struggle to get him the ball due to arm velocity, they will double and over/under Pitts just like the Eagles did. I think that splits about 10-12 looks between Mooney and McCloud and McClouds routes are shorter and completions easier.
