NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-3 = 40.0% = -1.3 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 7 - 8 = 46.7% = -1.8 units ~ CLV +9.5
Totals Under = 5 - 2 = 71.4% = +2.8 units ~CLV +7.5
2X Totals Over = 6 - 3 = 66.7% = +5.4 units ~CLV +19.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV -2.0
Prop bets = 4 -3 = 57.1% = +0.2 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 30-25 = 54.6% = +4.55 units ~ CLV +36
CLV per wager = +0.84 ppg
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-3 = 40.0% = -1.3 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 7 - 8 = 46.7% = -1.8 units ~ CLV +9.5
Totals Under = 5 - 2 = 71.4% = +2.8 units ~CLV +7.5
2X Totals Over = 6 - 3 = 66.7% = +5.4 units ~CLV +19.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV -2.0
Prop bets = 4 -3 = 57.1% = +0.2 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 30-25 = 54.6% = +4.55 units ~ CLV +36
CLV per wager = +0.84 ppg
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 4-3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units ~ CLV +4.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 9 - 10 = 47.4% = -2.0 units ~ CLV +15.5
Totals Under = 5 - 2 = 71.4% = +2.8 units ~CLV +7.5
2X Totals Over = 6 - 3 = 66.7% = +5.4 units ~CLV +19.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV -2.0
Prop bets = 4 -3 = 57.1% = +0.2 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 34-27 = 55.7% = +6.35 units ~ CLV +43
CLV per wager = +0.88 ppg
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 4-3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units ~ CLV +4.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 9 - 10 = 47.4% = -2.0 units ~ CLV +15.5
Totals Under = 5 - 2 = 71.4% = +2.8 units ~CLV +7.5
2X Totals Over = 6 - 3 = 66.7% = +5.4 units ~CLV +19.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV -2.0
Prop bets = 4 -3 = 57.1% = +0.2 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 34-27 = 55.7% = +6.35 units ~ CLV +43
CLV per wager = +0.88 ppg
For 11-19:
Had time for some thoughts.
#502 Cleveland/Boston UNDER 233
This one will probably be hard to watch as a gambler, but we should get as close to a play-off type atmosphere as possible for a regular season NBA game. It's a Cup game which will add a little too this as well. Boston favored over a team that's started the season 15-0 SU, so the line is telling us the type of game this is expected to be. Tough atmosphere, focus for the Celtics for multiple competitive reasons, and this could easily be a "dud" game for the visiting Cavs. These two teams have rosters that have been constructed for a while, lots of continuity, the variables here are the faster pace from Cleveland this year and the Celtics, seemingly, not as interested defensively. In the last 10 meetings between these two teams (with lots of the same framework & players) not a single one of those games have exceeded this point total. I think Cleveland, considering the opponent and situation, will play just a bit slower than it has and that Boston will come with the defensive intensity this lineup has shown it's capable of. I made the line 231.5, which would normally not be enough value to get me interested. But the side/total value and the situation have me willing to wager.
#505 Denver/Memphis OVER 225
Prop bet - Denver Team Total OVER 110.5 (must confirm Jokic before making this wager, I'll adjust the number if necessary)
Going to bet this game total early and expect Jokic to play. If he doesn't we have a shot but might be stuck with a bad number, if he does we have a great bet and this number will close 228. This game features the unique set-up of consecutive games vs the same opponent in the same venue but with a day off in-between. That setup is fairly rare in non-playoff NBA basketball and, vs competitive teams, I like to look opposite of what occurred in the first matchup. Last game, with no Jokic, the Nuggets were trampled, losing by 15 and scoring just 90 points. This followed a 94 point game just prior. To open the season, with injuries and similar circumstances, the Nuggets lost two games scoring just 87 then 104 points. Now they are off consecutive losses, with injuries, and scoring just 94 and 90 points. Following those 2 dismal performances, the Nuggets responded by averaging 123 ppg over their next 8 games and those games played to an average regulation total of 241.2 ppg. All 8 games exceeded 225 in regulation and the Nuggets scored >110 in all 8 games. Memphis is playing to the #2 pace in the league and should help to carry the game flow the Nuggets will want here, they have been solid at home and should do their part, even more so if Jokic is absent.
Prop bet - LA Lakers Team Total OVER 121.5
The two current iterations of these two teams have shown us that the Jazz have a very difficult time defending the Lakers in all matchup sets. In their last 5 relevant meetings, the Lakers have averaged 129.2 ppg. Those were Lakers teams playing at a slightly slower pace than this version and LBJ missed 2 of the 5 games. The Lakers have exceeded 124 points in regulation in all 5 games. Jazz are allowing 119.2 ppg on the road. They've faced just 3 up-tempo teams for the year and have surrendered 126.3 ppg in those contests. I made the break even number for this wager 125.5. Considering this is a Cup game and margin of victory is a deciding tie-breaker, we've seen teams play to the end of contests. Lakers showed they value these Cup wins, perhaps more than any other team, and I'd expect a top-notch effort here vs a vulnerable opponent.
Had time for some thoughts.
#502 Cleveland/Boston UNDER 233
This one will probably be hard to watch as a gambler, but we should get as close to a play-off type atmosphere as possible for a regular season NBA game. It's a Cup game which will add a little too this as well. Boston favored over a team that's started the season 15-0 SU, so the line is telling us the type of game this is expected to be. Tough atmosphere, focus for the Celtics for multiple competitive reasons, and this could easily be a "dud" game for the visiting Cavs. These two teams have rosters that have been constructed for a while, lots of continuity, the variables here are the faster pace from Cleveland this year and the Celtics, seemingly, not as interested defensively. In the last 10 meetings between these two teams (with lots of the same framework & players) not a single one of those games have exceeded this point total. I think Cleveland, considering the opponent and situation, will play just a bit slower than it has and that Boston will come with the defensive intensity this lineup has shown it's capable of. I made the line 231.5, which would normally not be enough value to get me interested. But the side/total value and the situation have me willing to wager.
#505 Denver/Memphis OVER 225
Prop bet - Denver Team Total OVER 110.5 (must confirm Jokic before making this wager, I'll adjust the number if necessary)
Going to bet this game total early and expect Jokic to play. If he doesn't we have a shot but might be stuck with a bad number, if he does we have a great bet and this number will close 228. This game features the unique set-up of consecutive games vs the same opponent in the same venue but with a day off in-between. That setup is fairly rare in non-playoff NBA basketball and, vs competitive teams, I like to look opposite of what occurred in the first matchup. Last game, with no Jokic, the Nuggets were trampled, losing by 15 and scoring just 90 points. This followed a 94 point game just prior. To open the season, with injuries and similar circumstances, the Nuggets lost two games scoring just 87 then 104 points. Now they are off consecutive losses, with injuries, and scoring just 94 and 90 points. Following those 2 dismal performances, the Nuggets responded by averaging 123 ppg over their next 8 games and those games played to an average regulation total of 241.2 ppg. All 8 games exceeded 225 in regulation and the Nuggets scored >110 in all 8 games. Memphis is playing to the #2 pace in the league and should help to carry the game flow the Nuggets will want here, they have been solid at home and should do their part, even more so if Jokic is absent.
Prop bet - LA Lakers Team Total OVER 121.5
The two current iterations of these two teams have shown us that the Jazz have a very difficult time defending the Lakers in all matchup sets. In their last 5 relevant meetings, the Lakers have averaged 129.2 ppg. Those were Lakers teams playing at a slightly slower pace than this version and LBJ missed 2 of the 5 games. The Lakers have exceeded 124 points in regulation in all 5 games. Jazz are allowing 119.2 ppg on the road. They've faced just 3 up-tempo teams for the year and have surrendered 126.3 ppg in those contests. I made the break even number for this wager 125.5. Considering this is a Cup game and margin of victory is a deciding tie-breaker, we've seen teams play to the end of contests. Lakers showed they value these Cup wins, perhaps more than any other team, and I'd expect a top-notch effort here vs a vulnerable opponent.
Knew I should have kept the Nuggets TT, sound reasoning regardless of the presence of Jokic or not.
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 4-3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units ~ CLV +4.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 10 - 10 = 50.0% = -1.0 units ~ CLV +14.0
Totals Under = 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +1.7 units ~CLV +6.0
2X Totals Over = 6 - 3 = 66.7% = +5.4 units ~CLV +19.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV -2.0
Prop bets = 6 -3 = 66.7% = +2.2 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 37-28 = 56.9% = +8.25 units ~ CLV +40
CLV per wager = +0.78 ppg
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 4-3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units ~ CLV +4.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 10 - 10 = 50.0% = -1.0 units ~ CLV +14.0
Totals Under = 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +1.7 units ~CLV +6.0
2X Totals Over = 6 - 3 = 66.7% = +5.4 units ~CLV +19.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV -2.0
Prop bets = 6 -3 = 66.7% = +2.2 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 37-28 = 56.9% = +8.25 units ~ CLV +40
CLV per wager = +0.78 ppg
Adding:
#517 Portland +12.5
Prop Bet -2X Scottie Pippen Jr. OVER 10.5 points scored
Books seem to be struggling to price Pippen Jr. since the Ja Morant injury. I would expect Pippen Jr. to exceed this number around 74% of the time and I made the break even number for this wager 12.7 points, which gives us some extreme value. He has exceeded this point total in both his meetings vs Philadelphia and has exceeded this number in 11 of 15 (73.3%) games this season. In the 4 games this season where Pippen Jr. has failed to exceed 10.5 points scored, its been based solely on shot attempts. I project Pippen with 9 shot attempts in this game and he has failed to reach 10.5 points while attempting at least 9 shots just once. The Grizzlies will get some G's back from injury here but Pippen Jr. has been incorporated into the offense now and Ja Morant is still OUT. I don't expect that both Spencer and Smart will return for Memphis tonight, so I don't see Pippen Jr's minutes being reduced dramatically. He's on an uptick and the Grizzlies are maximizing possessions, playing to the #2 pace in the NBA. We'll go to the well again.
#517 Portland +12.5
Prop Bet -2X Scottie Pippen Jr. OVER 10.5 points scored
Books seem to be struggling to price Pippen Jr. since the Ja Morant injury. I would expect Pippen Jr. to exceed this number around 74% of the time and I made the break even number for this wager 12.7 points, which gives us some extreme value. He has exceeded this point total in both his meetings vs Philadelphia and has exceeded this number in 11 of 15 (73.3%) games this season. In the 4 games this season where Pippen Jr. has failed to exceed 10.5 points scored, its been based solely on shot attempts. I project Pippen with 9 shot attempts in this game and he has failed to reach 10.5 points while attempting at least 9 shots just once. The Grizzlies will get some G's back from injury here but Pippen Jr. has been incorporated into the offense now and Ja Morant is still OUT. I don't expect that both Spencer and Smart will return for Memphis tonight, so I don't see Pippen Jr's minutes being reduced dramatically. He's on an uptick and the Grizzlies are maximizing possessions, playing to the #2 pace in the NBA. We'll go to the well again.
