One prop bet for tonight:
Damian Lillard OVER 23.5 (+100) points scored
This line is tight but I like the situation. I made the break even number here 24.7, so we have little wiggle room, and I'd expect Lillard to get to 24 points about 54% of the time. Lillard enters off one of the poorest shooting performances of his career as he shot 1-12 and scored just 4 points. In his most relevant meetings vs Cleveland, Lillard has averaged 29.6 ppg, on 21.6 shots per game, and that was vs a Cavaliers team playing at a MUCH slower pace. This year the Cavs (#7) and Bucks (#6) are both running so Milwaukee will not have to carry the pace and Lillard should be able to reach 20+ shot attempts much easier. Since the beginning of LY, Lillard has scored 15 or less points in a game 10 times. He's rebounded to average 27.2 ppg the next time out, exceeding the 23.5 ppg needed here on 7 of 10 occasions. The Cavs are around league average defending guards (#13) so I'd expect Lillard to be able to achieve his average performance for this opponent and situation, which should be near 27 points scored.
Damian Lillard OVER 23.5 (+100) points scored
This line is tight but I like the situation. I made the break even number here 24.7, so we have little wiggle room, and I'd expect Lillard to get to 24 points about 54% of the time. Lillard enters off one of the poorest shooting performances of his career as he shot 1-12 and scored just 4 points. In his most relevant meetings vs Cleveland, Lillard has averaged 29.6 ppg, on 21.6 shots per game, and that was vs a Cavaliers team playing at a MUCH slower pace. This year the Cavs (#7) and Bucks (#6) are both running so Milwaukee will not have to carry the pace and Lillard should be able to reach 20+ shot attempts much easier. Since the beginning of LY, Lillard has scored 15 or less points in a game 10 times. He's rebounded to average 27.2 ppg the next time out, exceeding the 23.5 ppg needed here on 7 of 10 occasions. The Cavs are around league average defending guards (#13) so I'd expect Lillard to be able to achieve his average performance for this opponent and situation, which should be near 27 points scored.
For 11-3:
#540 Detroit/Brooklyn OVER 219.5
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 5 = 16.7% = -4.5 units ~ CLV +7.0
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +7.0
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -0 = 100% = +3.0 units
Live wagers = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Cumulative = 14-14 = 50.0% = -0.4 units ~ CLV +21
CLV per wager = +.96 ppg
#540 Detroit/Brooklyn OVER 219.5
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 5 = 16.7% = -4.5 units ~ CLV +7.0
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +7.0
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -0 = 100% = +3.0 units
Live wagers = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Cumulative = 14-14 = 50.0% = -0.4 units ~ CLV +21
CLV per wager = +.96 ppg
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units ~ CLV +7.0
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 2 - 1 = 66.7% = +1.8 units ~CLV +7.0
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -0 = 100% = +3.0 units
Live wagers = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Cumulative = 15-15 = 50.0% = +0.5 units ~ CLV +21
CLV per wager = +.88 ppg
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units ~ CLV +7.0
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 2 - 1 = 66.7% = +1.8 units ~CLV +7.0
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -0 = 100% = +3.0 units
Live wagers = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Cumulative = 15-15 = 50.0% = +0.5 units ~ CLV +21
CLV per wager = +.88 ppg
For 11-9
#560 2X Brooklyn/Cleveland Over 219.5
#562 Chicago/Atlanta Over 239.5
Some prop bets for tonight:
Zach Lavine OVER 19.5 points scored (-105)
I would expect Lavine to reach this number about 71% of the time and I made the break even number for this wager 22.8 points, so we get some solid value. In relevant recent outings vs Atlanta, Lavine has averaged 22.3 png and has never scored less than 20 points and all of those contests were when the Bulls were running a much slower pace and not the #2 NBA ranking they hold so far in 2024. Lavine has reached this number in 5 of the 6 games he's played TY
Cameron Thomas OVER 22.5 points scored (-145)
I would expect Cam Thomas to reach this number about 74% of the time. I made the break even number for this wager 24.9 points, so we get some value. In Thomas' recent relevant outings vs Cleveland he has averaged 27 ppg on 19.8 shots per game. Over the last year, when Thomas has established himself as a go-to scorer for the Nets, he has taken 19.8+ shots in a game 27 times, in those games he has averaged 30.2 ppg and has achieved this number (22.5) 24 out of 27 times (88.9%). The Cavs are middle of the pack in defending guards (#15) and are playing at a much faster pace (#6) than in the 4 most recent meetings with Brooklyn, where Thomas averaged 27 ppg vs them. I would expect it to be reasonable for Thomas to hit his average in minutes played (around 35 mpg) get up his average number of shots vs this opponent (20) and hit his average scoring number (27-30 ppg)
Donavan Mitchell OVER 23.5 points scored (-130)
This line is accurate and I made the break even number for this wage 23.9 points giving us no wiggle room. The math is bad but the situation is good. Since coming to Cleveland Mitchell has scorched the Nets averaging 32.2 ppg vs them in his recent relevant meetings. Mitchell is extremely well rested coming off a blowout win in which he did not play in the 4th quarter and logged just 26 minutes. Mitchell did get up 13 shots but scored just 12 point. Over the last year in a games where Mitchell has scored 17 points or less, he has rebounded to average 26.7 ppg in his next outing, achieving this number (23.5) on 7 of 11 occasions (63.6%). I think we are going to get a higher scoring game here and with Cleveland playing at a quicker pace, Mitchell should have every opportunity to achieve similar recent results vs this opponent.
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units ~ CLV +7.0
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 3 - 1 = 75.0% = +3.8 units ~CLV +9.5
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -0 = 100% = +3.0 units
Live wagers = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Cumulative = 16-15 = 51.6% = +2.5 units ~ CLV +23.5
CLV per wager = +.94 ppg
#560 2X Brooklyn/Cleveland Over 219.5
#562 Chicago/Atlanta Over 239.5
Some prop bets for tonight:
Zach Lavine OVER 19.5 points scored (-105)
I would expect Lavine to reach this number about 71% of the time and I made the break even number for this wager 22.8 points, so we get some solid value. In relevant recent outings vs Atlanta, Lavine has averaged 22.3 png and has never scored less than 20 points and all of those contests were when the Bulls were running a much slower pace and not the #2 NBA ranking they hold so far in 2024. Lavine has reached this number in 5 of the 6 games he's played TY
Cameron Thomas OVER 22.5 points scored (-145)
I would expect Cam Thomas to reach this number about 74% of the time. I made the break even number for this wager 24.9 points, so we get some value. In Thomas' recent relevant outings vs Cleveland he has averaged 27 ppg on 19.8 shots per game. Over the last year, when Thomas has established himself as a go-to scorer for the Nets, he has taken 19.8+ shots in a game 27 times, in those games he has averaged 30.2 ppg and has achieved this number (22.5) 24 out of 27 times (88.9%). The Cavs are middle of the pack in defending guards (#15) and are playing at a much faster pace (#6) than in the 4 most recent meetings with Brooklyn, where Thomas averaged 27 ppg vs them. I would expect it to be reasonable for Thomas to hit his average in minutes played (around 35 mpg) get up his average number of shots vs this opponent (20) and hit his average scoring number (27-30 ppg)
Donavan Mitchell OVER 23.5 points scored (-130)
This line is accurate and I made the break even number for this wage 23.9 points giving us no wiggle room. The math is bad but the situation is good. Since coming to Cleveland Mitchell has scorched the Nets averaging 32.2 ppg vs them in his recent relevant meetings. Mitchell is extremely well rested coming off a blowout win in which he did not play in the 4th quarter and logged just 26 minutes. Mitchell did get up 13 shots but scored just 12 point. Over the last year in a games where Mitchell has scored 17 points or less, he has rebounded to average 26.7 ppg in his next outing, achieving this number (23.5) on 7 of 11 occasions (63.6%). I think we are going to get a higher scoring game here and with Cleveland playing at a quicker pace, Mitchell should have every opportunity to achieve similar recent results vs this opponent.
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units ~ CLV +7.0
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 3 - 1 = 75.0% = +3.8 units ~CLV +9.5
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -0 = 100% = +3.0 units
Live wagers = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Cumulative = 16-15 = 51.6% = +2.5 units ~ CLV +23.5
CLV per wager = +.94 ppg
#546 2X Minnesota/Portland OVER 218.5
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 7 = 12.5% = -6.7 units ~ CLV +8.5
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +1.6 units ~CLV +10
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -3 = 50.0% = -0.8 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 17-21 = 44.7% = -4.85 units ~ CLV +25.5
CLV per wager = +.94 ppg
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 7 = 12.5% = -6.7 units ~ CLV +8.5
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +1.6 units ~CLV +10
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -3 = 50.0% = -0.8 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 17-21 = 44.7% = -4.85 units ~ CLV +25.5
CLV per wager = +.94 ppg
Big card for 11-13:
#568 2X Minnesota/Portland OVER 220
#558 2X Cleveland/Philadelphia OVER 217.5
#564 LA Clippers/Houston OVER 214.5
#556 New Orleans/Oklahoma City UNDER 223
#562 Washington/San Antonio OVER 220.5
#560 Detroit/Milwaukee OVER 219
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-3 = 40.0% = -1.3 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 7 = 12.5% = -6.7 units ~ CLV +8.5
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +3.6 units ~CLV +13.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -3 = 50.0% = -0.8 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 18-22 = 45.0% = -3.95 units ~ CLV +29.0
CLV per wager = +1.0 ppg
#568 2X Minnesota/Portland OVER 220
#558 2X Cleveland/Philadelphia OVER 217.5
#564 LA Clippers/Houston OVER 214.5
#556 New Orleans/Oklahoma City UNDER 223
#562 Washington/San Antonio OVER 220.5
#560 Detroit/Milwaukee OVER 219
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-3 = 40.0% = -1.3 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 1 - 7 = 12.5% = -6.7 units ~ CLV +8.5
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +3.6 units ~CLV +13.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 3 -3 = 50.0% = -0.8 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 18-22 = 45.0% = -3.95 units ~ CLV +29.0
CLV per wager = +1.0 ppg
Really close to a great day.
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-3 = 40.0% = -1.3 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 3 - 8 = 27.3% = -5.8 units ~ CLV +6.5
Totals Under = 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units ~CLV +3.0
2X Totals Over = 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +3.4 units ~CLV +14.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 4 -3 = 57.1% = +0.2 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 23-24 = 48.9% = -1.25 units ~ CLV +24.5
CLV per wager = +0.7 ppg
NBA 2024-25 Record:
NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0.0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-3 = 40.0% = -1.3 units ~ CLV +3.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneyline Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 3 - 8 = 27.3% = -5.8 units ~ CLV +6.5
Totals Under = 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units ~CLV +3.0
2X Totals Over = 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +3.4 units ~CLV +14.5
2X Totals Under = 1 - 0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 4 -3 = 57.1% = +0.2 units
Live wagers = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.35 units
Cumulative = 23-24 = 48.9% = -1.25 units ~ CLV +24.5
CLV per wager = +0.7 ppg
