We'll be back at it again, hopefully with bette results. Feel like I did a good job of capping LY but my CLV gains simply didn't translate to wagering W's. Possibly some short term variance? We'll talk the positives from last season and try to do better this year.
For 10-22:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#504 Minnesota T'Wolves/LA Lakers OVER 221.5
Some interesting betting patterns on this one to open the season. The opener (224.5) was a mistake and got bet down, rightfully so. It crashed to 219 and has been steadily climbing back up. Normally, I would be leery of betting an OVER in this situation as the common thinking would be that sharps bet the opener down and the public, who love over bets, is driving it back up. You don't want to side with the public on a move like that. However, watching markets and learning betting patterns and timing can give you different insights. Here, I see a group that wanted to play a particular number and drove the market to get it. You can do this more easily on short cards, early in the season when the market is immature. I am worse than the 219 and 219.5 that they wanted to plays but we still gain value from the opener and, I feel, are on the the slow-moving sharp side betting a number that will close higher. Lebron and AD will never be healthier during the season than they are right now and this is the sort of situation that Lebron has always thrived in. I think he'll push an all-out effort here, especially on the offensive end, for the home crowd and in his debut with his son. The T'Wolves are still a very good defensive team but the change from KAT to Julius Randle should improve their offense and up their pace. These two teams met twice LY, after Anthony Edwards began his ascension to superstardom, the OVER in those games hit both times playing to an average of 236.5 ppg. Edwards is a young enigmatic player who will be dually motivated here. I don't think he liked his backseat status during the Olympics and he beefed with Magic Johnson, who should be in attendance for this one, over the summer. This might be a crush game for Edwards to prove a point with a huge TV audience in tow.
For 10-22:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#504 Minnesota T'Wolves/LA Lakers OVER 221.5
Some interesting betting patterns on this one to open the season. The opener (224.5) was a mistake and got bet down, rightfully so. It crashed to 219 and has been steadily climbing back up. Normally, I would be leery of betting an OVER in this situation as the common thinking would be that sharps bet the opener down and the public, who love over bets, is driving it back up. You don't want to side with the public on a move like that. However, watching markets and learning betting patterns and timing can give you different insights. Here, I see a group that wanted to play a particular number and drove the market to get it. You can do this more easily on short cards, early in the season when the market is immature. I am worse than the 219 and 219.5 that they wanted to plays but we still gain value from the opener and, I feel, are on the the slow-moving sharp side betting a number that will close higher. Lebron and AD will never be healthier during the season than they are right now and this is the sort of situation that Lebron has always thrived in. I think he'll push an all-out effort here, especially on the offensive end, for the home crowd and in his debut with his son. The T'Wolves are still a very good defensive team but the change from KAT to Julius Randle should improve their offense and up their pace. These two teams met twice LY, after Anthony Edwards began his ascension to superstardom, the OVER in those games hit both times playing to an average of 236.5 ppg. Edwards is a young enigmatic player who will be dually motivated here. I don't think he liked his backseat status during the Olympics and he beefed with Magic Johnson, who should be in attendance for this one, over the summer. This might be a crush game for Edwards to prove a point with a huge TV audience in tow.
