The linesmaker's job is to find the median
point in the distribution curve,not find the
mode or most frequently occuring result amongst
all possible results.
Let's look at a non-realistic example to further
clarify this point by conjuring a game with
a rectangular distribution of possible outcomes.
This game(cow turd tossing let's say) will be a contest in which only the home team is allowed to score,and the home team is equally as likely to win by anywhere from 1-25 points.
So each of the 25 possible results(cow turd
tossing games aren't allowed to end in draws,as
everyone knows)historically occurs on average 4% of the time.
Now it's rather plain to see that the
linesmaker should correctly place the line at Home -13.Of course he might need to adjust
for cow pie thickness/composition but that's
irrelevant for this point.
the average spread margin of victory for
the home team will 6.5 points.the average
spread margin of victory for the away squad
will also be 6.5 points.
what some are espousing as line errors are
really part of distribution measurements.
a reference very early in this thread to
a favourite covering by average of 8.9 points
and underdogs covering by an average of 9.3
points(or was it the reverse) was used as an example of extreme linesmaker error,when it
really showed that the linesmaker was quite
accurate.just nudging the line over another
0.2 points on average would have resulted
in a neat balance of favourites and dogs
covering on average by 9.1 points each.
point in the distribution curve,not find the
mode or most frequently occuring result amongst
all possible results.
Let's look at a non-realistic example to further
clarify this point by conjuring a game with
a rectangular distribution of possible outcomes.
This game(cow turd tossing let's say) will be a contest in which only the home team is allowed to score,and the home team is equally as likely to win by anywhere from 1-25 points.
So each of the 25 possible results(cow turd
tossing games aren't allowed to end in draws,as
everyone knows)historically occurs on average 4% of the time.
Now it's rather plain to see that the
linesmaker should correctly place the line at Home -13.Of course he might need to adjust
for cow pie thickness/composition but that's
irrelevant for this point.
the average spread margin of victory for
the home team will 6.5 points.the average
spread margin of victory for the away squad
will also be 6.5 points.
what some are espousing as line errors are
really part of distribution measurements.
a reference very early in this thread to
a favourite covering by average of 8.9 points
and underdogs covering by an average of 9.3
points(or was it the reverse) was used as an example of extreme linesmaker error,when it
really showed that the linesmaker was quite
accurate.just nudging the line over another
0.2 points on average would have resulted
in a neat balance of favourites and dogs
covering on average by 9.1 points each.
the theoretical median point is the cake.
factoring in public money is the candle.
Balanced action is a fantasy,bookmakers
will always need to win a certain % of decisions
against the public money.
It's the uncertainty of where the median
point should be exactly located that allows
us to dream we can more accurately price
the future better than them.
factoring in public money is the candle.
Balanced action is a fantasy,bookmakers
will always need to win a certain % of decisions
against the public money.
It's the uncertainty of where the median
point should be exactly located that allows
us to dream we can more accurately price
the future better than them.
I need to re-read Mr Delicious' info, but I am glad he added that, I felt pretty strongly about some of the points that he made, and I'm glad someone else sees things the same way. I guess it depends on the sport, but do the oddsmakers fear/respect (as far as moving the line) syndicate action a LOT more than public money. I guess what I'm trying to ask is if they are seeing one-sided syndicate action on one side, but one-sided public action that is heavy enough to out-weigh the syndicate money by 2 to 1 or more, do the books tend to move the line in favor of the syndicates- to cut into their action while baiting even more public money on the 'wrong' side. I imagine situational factors have a bearing on this, but it seems that it takes a hell of a lot more public money to move the line than syndicate action, in fact it seems that the line is moved down to get even more one-sided public action some of the time. I've been experimenting with this a little, I dont take much action, but I am selling NJ +9.5, o/u 191 locally.
SEA, havent looked at golf much at all, but that may be what I start looking into next- either that or Raibird's SoCal HS football, lol. How beatable is it? And what are the main criteria to analyze. I would imagine golfer's historical performance on given course, number to hit greens, putting, L3 tourneys are the sort of things to look at?
Shotgun provided some interleague #'s in the HZ.
SEA, havent looked at golf much at all, but that may be what I start looking into next- either that or Raibird's SoCal HS football, lol. How beatable is it? And what are the main criteria to analyze. I would imagine golfer's historical performance on given course, number to hit greens, putting, L3 tourneys are the sort of things to look at?
Shotgun provided some interleague #'s in the HZ.
linesmakers aren't necessarily bookmakers,think
las vegas sports consultants.although there
are no legal sportsbooks in either new jersey
or san antonio(i think),if there were, it's pretty apparent , a bookmaker
in new jersey would shade his line in anticipation of heavy nets action,whilst the
one in san antonio would shade it the other
way in anticipation of spurs backers.
Also if you let a savvy sharp "mark your card"
then you might adjust lines because of this
additional info.
las vegas sports consultants.although there
are no legal sportsbooks in either new jersey
or san antonio(i think),if there were, it's pretty apparent , a bookmaker
in new jersey would shade his line in anticipation of heavy nets action,whilst the
one in san antonio would shade it the other
way in anticipation of spurs backers.
Also if you let a savvy sharp "mark your card"
then you might adjust lines because of this
additional info.
