ATX explaining the <due factor>

raiders72001 · Jun 1, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> similar to a formula I'm trying to develop to minimize streaks. I hate the ups and downs more than anything. It affects me psychologically, and other than money management and house limits that is the ONLY stumbling block.

What I've realized in this pursuit: DUE FACTORS

They are configured into lines every day, and that is why if you have more information than the oddsmaker on a specific team/teams for a given event one has a supreme edge.

I LMFAO at some people who say due factors aren't relative. DUE FACTORS are relavant b/c if a human being doesn't produce then they are replaced. Sporting events arent cards or dice where an event is ENTIRELY INDEPENDENT. NOTHING in a sporting event is ENTIRELY independent. He who has the best DUE FACTORS gets hired by the LVSC, the pure numbers are avail to ANYONE. The 11/10 is what beats the public- in addition to the books having an almost unlimited bankroll (by comparison), and the fact that the public has no idea what the NUMBER SHOULD be. In the NBA the number is off by an avg. of 7-8 points. In MLB even so called "handicappers" dont have a clue what the number should be, they just try to pick teams that 'wont' lose.
That formula has some merit, but the problem is that this market is so subject to change. As every day goes by, I am more compelled to adhere to my original belief- "YOU EITHER HAVE "IT" OR YOU DON'T!!"
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

seaurchin2217 · Jun 1, 2003

iwas reading with interest till i got to where the number is <0ff by 7-8 points>

raiders72001 · Jun 1, 2003

<7-8 pts> LMAO

ger379 · Jun 1, 2003

gentlemen,
whats funny about that?
When the home team covered this season in the NBA they covered by an average of 9.3 pts, while the average line margin of road teams when they covered was 8.9 points. Anyway with that in mind I'm trying to figure out why you're
LYAO

seaurchin2217 · Jun 1, 2003

waht about when the home team didnt cover?
you are going to have to show me where the prices are off by 7-9 points on a majority sample

i am not making light of it
i just dont beleive it
what is the standard deviation vs the point spread???

raiders72001 · Jun 1, 2003

Ger- Actually I read this article with a lot of interest. Here's another quote that I found to make no sense
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> In MLB even so called "handicappers" dont have a clue what the number should be, they just try to pick teams that 'wont' lose.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What handicapper uses a method of trying to figure out what team 'wont' lose as stated by ATX without trying to figure out which side the value is on? The 7-8 statement made by him was ambiguous. I took it to mean that the line was off by that many points, not that a team had covered by that many.

JackDee · Jun 1, 2003

a lot of non sequitors in this post by atx, was reading with interest too, but could not make much of it.

ATX · Jun 1, 2003

the line is off by whatever the final score settles on vs the posted line, unless you have some better measure of payable comparison. Historically, this has been over 7 points since '93 off the top of my head, GER's numbers from this year are similar to mine. Ever wonder why NBA teasers are 6 points? MW has a distribution thread, once you stop laughing????? you guys crack me up.

I see my post has hit the intended target.

I'm a bit disappointed with the lack of rebuttal on the subject of due factors. I was hoping you guys could shed some light on the industry's apparent ignorance. Since your cross examination doesnt appear to have gotten past the elementary level, I'll restate it so those with an opinion can critique it or oppose it. I wont divulge everything.

Due factors do not work in independent events such as cards and dice (unless the human dealer affects the outcome).

But sporting events are not cards and dice.

Sporting events are not entirely independent because of human tendencies and matchups. The outcomes are not dependent purely on statistics. Humans get tired, lose focus, and have set performance parameters because they are human. Is it possible to run a two minute mile? NO, this is outside the human parameter. Is it possible to hit .500? Absolutely. Players do it every day. But they wont over a season. Why? Different due factors. The player doesnt focus 100% every day, the player's 100% dwindles to 85% b/c of fatigue, the successful player becomes a target to opposing players who raise their level in order to succeed. Is this incorporated into the line? Yes. But not exactly like this. To keep this simple and from a team aspect the line is often adjusted for no other reason than the oddsmaker feels that a team is 'DUE' to either win or lose. Human performance has a regression to the mean. If it didnt, wagering on sporting events would be no more beatable than a game of cards, as the Lakers would win every year and the NYY would beat Detroit every single time. Ever talked to Dr. Michael Colgan??

raiders72001 · Jun 1, 2003

The only Dr. Michael Colgan that I've heard of deals with alternative healing and I don't really know how that applies here. I have read alternative healing books by Andrew Weil if this makes any difference. You have stated that you don't want to reveal too much so if it's possible to shed some light on this statement without revealing too much please do so.

ATX
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>In MLB even so called "handicappers" dont have a clue what the number should be, they just try to pick teams that 'wont' lose <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

seaurchin2217 · Jun 1, 2003

tic tac could use your help
and i never have wondered about a teaser
i wouldnt play one with rods bank roll

raiders72001 · Jun 1, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> Human performance has a regression to the mean. If it didnt, wagering on sporting events would be no more beatable than a game of cards, as the Lakers would win every year and the NYY would beat Detroit every single time. Ever talked to Dr. Michael Colgan?? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Human performance does have a regression to the mean but this isn't the reason why sports gambling is beatable. You are making way too many assumptions for your statement to be true. There are set odds in casino gambling. Odds are set by humans and the lines are moved by humans in sports gambling. If you are able to predict outcomes better than others you will win. That's all there is to it.

ATX · Jun 1, 2003

Colgan trains elite athletes, also on US anti-aging council. He has very accurate distributions on human performance parameters. These are associated with due factors- athletes can only perform at a very elite level for a limited amount of time. During this period many athletes are on the verge of becoming very ill. This is why many Tour de France riders quarantine themselves during the event (IMO and many others they are the best athletes in the world). How does this relate to due factors? It gets complicated and I dont have time to get into too much detail but human performance distribution curves are significant.

Raiders, it's all-too-common for you to change the subject. What is the title of this thread? But, you asked me a question and I'll answer it, no matter how loaded the query. As far as handicappers that dont know what the number should be and just pick sides they feel wont lose- quite a few. I use the term handicapper loosely. I am not going to name names, I feel bashing is better suited for your agenda. In actuality this board has more quality MLB handicappers than I remember in the past, but I didnt pay a whole lot of attention during the entire season- I just saw some of the end results. If you want to know then simply compare a person's selections to what the line should be, final results at the end of ANY season are the bottom line. I would assume a handicapper would be able to pull profit from ANY league he/she had experience in- every year. If not, explain to me why.

Tic-tac does need help. That is my agenda. My purpose in quoting 'due factor' enough times for this was to accurately define the term. After the Yankees lose twice in a row does not necessarily qualify them for a win. But a team capped at winning +60% of their games is statistically more apt at winning their next game. That is something to consider but not more important than many other things in a MLB matchup. I guess my point is that you cant ignore other matchup angles just b/c a team has lost x in a row, but sometimes this does add value.

seaurchin2217 · Jun 1, 2003

atx

good luck with tic tac
youre going to need it

ATX · Jun 1, 2003

Raiders, I just dont think you get it...

"there are set odds in casino games, but sporting event odds are set by humans..."

BUT THERE ARE SET ODDS IN SPORTING EVENTS!!

that is one of my points. With the given numbers there SHOULD BE A VERY SPECIFIC LINE for many events. And outside of the obvious numbers there are DUE FACTORS that go into that number. This is part of the reason that BW and the COMPUTER group became notorious...

SEA, that raises a question. Was everyone a 'tic-tac' at one point? I tend to think that most people either 'have IT or they dont'...even after a learning curve.

raiders72001 · Jun 1, 2003

ATX- I use to write papers in high school the same way you post and my teacher would write on the top of the paper in big letters SNOW JOB. I too can show you all kinds of graphs and charts on regression to the mean. The way you use it to back the <due theory> in gambling makes no sense and is just a SNOW JOB.

raiders72001 · Jun 1, 2003

You can't set a due factor in sports gambling. It's just speculation. The odds of throwing a 7 are 1 out of 6. To say that the Yanks will win 60% of their games is speculation.

seaurchin2217 · Jun 1, 2003

atx
no
i had been raised to keep my mouth shut
and not try to be an <eoe> or claim to be the king of anything

the learning curve i agree with because at 50 i know a hell of alot more now than i did at 20

money management the most important by far
also not trying to be an <eoe> on all sports and concentrate on what i know about and rely on people i have met over the years to supply me with the other info i need.

imo tic tac is more into bragging and contest than about learning anything
he might grow out of it but i like the dont

[This message was edited by seaurchin2217 on June 01, 2003 at 08:03 PM.]

ATX · Jun 1, 2003

SEA, but there IS a chance for him?? It IS tough to win in a KING"S game. He is on to those due factors though, lol. Maybe we should start him off in something easy like NFLX. After that classic post of his about dog ML's he might like some of your golf?

Raiders, sorry to hear you didnt fare too well in the academic arena. OK, I guess we are from due factors to NBA off 7-8 LMAO to bad "handicappers" back to due factors again. Just to be clear on what subject we are currently on (I was getting kinda nervous with my Horns in the elimination game, 3 more outs).

"you cant set a due factor"?

what makes you think the books dont? why do you think BW's computer model is so hard to reverse-engineer? why isnt SD +200 most every day? they are complex fringe numbers and not for everyone...

seaurchin2217 · Jun 1, 2003

you are right atx
he is <due>

altice · Jun 2, 2003

I am too drunk to read the due factor right now, but ATX isn't like most morons in the picks forum. He actually knows his shit. I hope he ventures down to the Rubber Room more often. By the way Urchin, thanks for the winners in golf, but a wise man told me once and I am paraphrasing now, ( I can't believe I used a multisyllabic word like paraphrasing), Golf is Fa SUckAz. baSEZ IZ a kingZ GAMe. I hope nobody comes by until I sober up by the way and actually makes me work today. OUT. BOOyA. Peep IS a CAnaRy. L phuckin O L.