"Ask Ace-Ace"

[kevnb]

If I understand correctly you have a rough formula for totals that goes like this:

((visitor yds + Home yds)-325)/7.5

The yds used are the average for each team. Now if I have this correct I know you can also use a teams offensive yds and a teams defensive yds in the formula.

If I were to use offensive and defensive yds I am assuming the formula would look like this

((((visitor offensive yds + Home defensive yds)/2)+((home offensive yds + visitor defensive yds)/2))-325)/7.5

I guess my question is do I average the offensive vs defensive yds are do I apply the formula using the -325 twice.

I hope this question makes sense and thank you in advance for all the time you put into this forum.


Big Happy

 

[ACE-ACE]

If I understand correctly you have a rough formula for totals that goes like this:

((visitor yds + Home yds)-325)/7.5

The yds used are the average for each team. Now if I have this correct I know you can also use a teams offensive yds and a teams defensive yds in the formula.

If I were to use offensive and defensive yds I am assuming the formula would look like this

((((visitor offensive yds + Home defensive yds)/2)+((home offensive yds + visitor defensive yds)/2))-325)/7.5

I guess my question is do I average the offensive vs defensive yds are do I apply the formula using the -325 twice.

I hope this question makes sense and thank you in advance for all the time you put into this forum.


Big Happy

this formula is about Avg offensive yards...if you are try to do both and keep track of the Record...I would like to see it...not sure which way would be better

V Avg yards + H Avg yards -325 div by 7.5 works well by itself

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Thanks Queen,

If it is week 7 and Seattle has played 6 games and San Fran has played 7 games do you make any adjustments on Seattle's numbers to make up for the inbalance?

I use my line as my third tool and only refer to it after I have picked which games I am interested in. My Line never puts me on a game but will make me look at a game I have already picked a bit closer if it disagrees with my pick.

Thanks

I was just rereading this from when we spoke a few weeks ago ......MY line is actually a starting point filter....you call it your 3rd tool .

what do you use to find which games you are interested in to begin with ? I am just curious is all ....


LINE OFF is a very important number . ....

 

[kevnb]

To get my first set of games I use a very simple tool. I circle any game in which any team was involved a blowout, that is any team that lost by more than 14 points over the line. Example Team A is a 3 point dog, they lose by 20, they are now a team I will look at next week.

My second line comes from using tools I learned from JR Miller, who wrote a great book. His tools for creating a line still work.

If both of these tools give me the same game I start applying other factors to it, one of which is now My Line.

However, seeing the strength in My Line I will now look at any games that it gives me.

I'm still learning how to put it all together. The information I'm learning from you and Ace is invaluable. As I strongly base my handicapping using math and various formulas I really enjoy the information presented here.

I usually handicap football and bet it very lightly, usually only exposing about 10% of my bankroll to the season. Last season showed a profit (small, small profit) but it was a profit nonetheless. I am going to increase my exposure to football this year but still keep my main betting in hoops as I show a steady profit there every year.

I would give my left foot to see the 99 system but will patiently watch form the sidelines.


On a side note. I am going through past seasons using the totals technique I learned here. I am currently replaying the 2006 season, totas only using the formula I learned from ACE. Interestingly enough,using no subjective factors, only math I am showing about a %65 win rate. I will show the numbers after I've finished doing my research.


Thanks for all you do here


Big Happy

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

To get my first set of games I use a very simple tool. I circle any game in which any team was involved a blowout, that is any team that lost by more than 14 points over the line. Example Team A is a 3 point dog, they lose by 20, they are now a team I will look at next week.

My second line comes from using tools I learned from JR Miller, who wrote a great book. His tools for creating a line still work.

If both of these tools give me the same game I start applying other factors to it, one of which is now My Line.

However, seeing the strength in My Line I will now look at any games that it gives me.

I'm still learning how to put it all together. The information I'm learning from you and Ace is invaluable. As I strongly base my handicapping using math and various formulas I really enjoy the information presented here.

I usually handicap football and bet it very lightly, usually only exposing about 10% of my bankroll to the season. Last season showed a profit (small, small profit) but it was a profit nonetheless. I am going to increase my exposure to football this year but still keep my main betting in hoops as I show a steady profit there every year.

I would give my left foot to see the 99 system but will patiently watch form the sidelines.


On a side note. I am going through past seasons using the totals technique I learned here. I am currently replaying the 2006 season, totas only using the formula I learned from ACE. Interestingly enough,using no subjective factors, only math I am showing about a %65 win rate. I will show the numbers after I've finished doing my research.


Thanks for all you do here


Big Happy

I like it . JR miller is an excellent read . Hopefully you can add my book to your library someday....when I finish it , Ill have to get ACE to approve it first ( of course) .

Something ACE always tells me, " Keep it simple". ....I think what he means by this is : learn it, live it, breathe it ...then move up the next step.


keep it simple kevnb...then move on to the next step.....another thing to keep in mind is that you are only as good as the company that you keep....something tells me that you may have that mastered already.


looking forward to your research from 2006. I am actually in the year 2006 myself....that happened to be one of ACE's best years .

 

[seer]

hi ace. something that has really helped me in the past was your post on all of the lines for all weeks BEFORE the NFL season begins. could you please post these when you have the lines available? thank you

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

hi ace. something that has really helped me in the past was your post on all of the lines for all weeks BEFORE the NFL season begins. could you please post these when you have the lines available? thank you

I wonder what numbers you are referring to Mr.Seer :think2:. Im curious to see ACE's answer to this. I dont hink I have ever seen all lines for ALL weeks BEFORE the season starts.

 

[ACE-ACE]

I wonder what numbers you are referring to Mr.Seer :think2:. Im curious to see ACE's answer to this. I dont hink I have ever seen all lines for ALL weeks BEFORE the season starts.

once we get the sheet going for the 99 system we can look at all the line ahead of time....also when I go to Las Vegas on Aug 26...I will pick up at IP a list of key game that go from week2 to week 17...it is a great tool to use to see a bigger line movement
I will have it up by the time I get back from Vegas

 

[JakeandBA]

Ace:

Quick question, how much weight (such as %) do you put in stats to come up with a probable outcome on a betting opportunity. After making this calulation, do you put stats outcome and compare it to the line to determine an edge?

After doing some reading for the upcoming football seasons, found out handicappers take mathematics to a whole new level with bayesian probability estimation, Poisson table, Regression, and other concepts. Do you handicapp this way or is the stat a small part of the decision, with the other part being subjective?

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Ace:

Quick question, how much weight (such as %) do you put in stats to come up with a probable outcome on a betting opportunity. After making this calulation, do you put stats outcome and compare it to the line to determine an edge?

After doing some reading for the upcoming football seasons, found out handicappers take mathematics to a whole new level with bayesian probability estimation, Poisson table, Regression, and other concepts. Do you handicapp this way or is the stat a small part of the decision, with the other part being subjective?

What you are asking is directly related to MY LINE. There is a thread in this forum that tells all details needed.

MY LINE is the starting point to ACE's capping. That is the edge that you are referring to. It makes up for 50% of the decision.After that edge is found there is whole lot more that goes into it.

basically ACE makes his own line and then finds the weakness in the actual lines. You should read the MY LINE thread. Even if it does not interest you, it will open your eyes to other things.

There is always subjective factors that can influence a decision but for the most part ACE is most definitely a STAT CAPPER. Im referring to NFL only .

ACE will answer you again when he wakes up , Im sure.....but my advice to your curiosity would be to read about MY LINE.....that is the primary edge that you are referrring to . I can tell you from experience that if MY LINE is in cahoots with the actual line , most likely ACE will be passing on that game.

good question JakeandBA.

 

[JakeandBA]

Thanks Queen for the response...first sorry i misunderstood the header of the thread, thought it was a thread to bounce off ideas....anyway just wanted to add that if a better believes the line in betting is = to market efficiency, then the market is off. This is based on how often the spread comes into play in the NFL regular season.

PS Queen when was the last time you went to Blue Goose, went there this past week end and had a ball...Even though Uncle Julio's is my all time fav...

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Thanks Queen for the response...first sorry i misunderstood the header of the thread, thought it was a thread to bounce off ideas....anyway just wanted to add that if a better believes the line in betting is = to market efficiency, then the market is off. This is based on how often the spread comes into play in the NFL regular season.

PS Queen when was the last time you went to Blue Goose, went there this past week end and had a ball...Even though Uncle Julio's is my all time fav...

No need to say sorry to me ever .

You were correct , bouncing ideas is what its all about. I am working on a Strength of Schedule plan. I dont feel like there is a SOS known to man kind out there that is worth a dime. So, I am going to make my own and I plan on doing it right here in this forum....just have not had any extra time lately to organize and structure my plan enough to bring it in here. I am definitely starting with Defensive rush rating...which again ...there is not one known to man kind....I will make my own with the help of everyone here. Hopefully I can get this started by this weekend. My plan is to have an SOS that is rock solid by week 8. I dont feel its important until the latter part of the season. That is when the cream rises to the top if ya know what i mean. I hope you will join in and help me come up with a MASTER plan.


last time at the Blue Goose would have been on Cinco de Mayo at Lower Greenville I think there is like 2 or 3 other locations...which 1 do you go to ?

( from there you would most likely find me at the Lemmon Bar in Uptown just down the street / good place to get tips for a tip if ya comprende). ...

Ill be honest tho .....when it comes to Fajitas, Margaritas, abnd friends......I am a Fort Worth girl. I am loyal to Joe T Garcias .

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

I have a question ACE,

Lets suppose that you could take an entire 30 day stretch off from work/ and obligations during the NFL season. Which month would you choose if you were me.....I am thinking December would be the most valuable month to have more focus. What do you think ?

 

[JakeandBA]

Queen, I am sure the Strenght of schedule idea will be a great asset. If you need any help I will try my best to assist.


BTY:
When i go downtown always go to the one on Greenville Ave. Went by Joe T about week ago on a Sat at 4:30 and the line was already out the door. it was crazy, had to pass but went to Mercado Juarez instead.

 

[ACE-ACE]

I have a question ACE,

Lets suppose that you could take an entire 30 day stretch off from work/ and obligations during the NFL season. Which month would you choose if you were me.....I am thinking December would be the most valuable month to have more focus. What do you think ?

that would be a hard one...lines after week 10 get tight...so you got to be on your games...week 1-3 before myline kicks in and the 99 system is 100%...guess if I had to be off it would be oct after week 5...I agree December you need to be more focus!!

 

[E-ftw]

i have a question if u got sometime. out of all the factors that are not controlable such as weather and injuries how big of an issue does it change the "my line" factor?

 

[ACE-ACE]

i have a question if u got sometime. out of all the factors that are not controlable such as weather and injuries how big of an issue does it change the "my line" factor?

weather is NOT A FACTOR IN 95% OF THE GAMES...RAIN SNOW NO BIG DEAL...WIND OF 25 MPH STARTS BEING A FACTOR....Injuries...the big guys..QB,RB,WR...must be factor in!
Myline only finds the game with point value vs the line...its 50% of my capping...than if a QB is out...or any player...that is factor in on the side......many a game that had a value of +10 was not a Investment play!!...the more tools you have (or views of the game) the better your edge. myline was my top "tool". now its the 99 system...when both match@)

 

[E-ftw]

thanks for all the work you put in. i just tipped the iceberg in this gambling world and already my head is spinning with all the paperwork from people "my older bro" from last season. i ben following for seasons but eventually i would like to beable to understand the game of capping. its nice to follow but its so much nicer knowing why you are following a certain play. id just like to say thank you for giving newbs like me the time of day.

 

[ACE-ACE]

thanks for all the work you put in. i just tipped the iceberg in this gambling world and already my head is spinning with all the paperwork from people "my older bro" from last season. i ben following for seasons but eventually i would like to beable to understand the game of capping. its nice to follow but its so much nicer knowing why you are following a certain play. id just like to say thank you for giving newbs like me the time of day.

the goal for you is to do stats and use all the tools you can to pick a game.....if you use 6 diff tools and 4 are pointing to one game and I'm on the game also...and lets say it won...than....and only than you know you are on to something....

 

[jordo]

Hey Ace...Let's say you KNOW that each pick one places will win 52% of the time at -110 odds...is it worth it to do a 3-Game Chase because one will then win 9 out of every 10 3-game chases...so each chase loss is around 7-8 units...so if a person would win 90 out of 100 chases, then their profits would be around +25 units...what do you think?? Or are you against chasing?