Arizona Cardinals show Kyler Murray the money!!

[chrishansen]

View attachment 39532View attachment 39533looks fairly legit to me for a somewhat inexperienced QB

Stats can be looked at 100 ways. His rushing yards for example. Is he rushing by design or because he can’t pass and uses his legs? His average last year was 4.8 yards per rush. That’s middle of the pack. Darnold is 4.7. He is mobile for sure. But he simply isn’t elite as a QB in whole. No such thing as inexperienced in 3 years NFL. You got guys in year two throwing 5,000 yards and 40tds now and days.

In 3 years he has yet to throw 25tds. Averages 3500 yards and 22tds. It’s only 3 years data. So I wouldn’t say that should hold a lot of weight. However, in a pass happy Offense with weapons and speed across the board, that’s not impressive. Matt Ryan Big Ben MAC Jones Ryan T-Hill all on par or better stat wise with basically mirroring stats. Sure, only year 3 and time to grow possibly.

Murray is super accurate based on completion %. So is Tua but watch close and go back and watch any dolphins game to see them motion gelesci or waddle to the LEFT side and watch Tua dump it 2 yards. Murray would work that left side bubble to Hopkins, Fitz in slot 3 yard hitch dumps. I bet Fitz 2 years ago averaged 5-6 catches a game for 35 yards. Meanwhile Isabella Kirk Moore Green ran pretty much go or jet routes on back side. For whatever reason Murray could not connect with Green and found Kirk or Isabella once in a blue moon wide open. But tight window fades he was unproductive. Due to the offense system he will connect on deep balls and Jack his stats. Much like Wilson in Seattle with his backyard style. Murray will be praised a great deep ball passer. Misleading really.

Like Tua they both dump to backs a lot also. Jimmy G same boat. Looks great on paper completing 70% passes. Oh accuracy they say. Not really. Pads the stats that’s all.

Imo He can’t work middle of field, boundaries and can’t lead horizontal passes. Just too limited basically because the crib midget is 5’9 a 1/3 of the field is taken away. The guys helmet looks like a create a character in a game. It’s like watching pop warner kids in helmets.

Not horrible but good nfl QB. Just not elite. Ravens will do the same thing and over pay Lamar. Just not worth that kind of money from a win a SB view. However, it can sell fans etc so as a business decision I won’t knock it.

 

[chrishansen]

This season will answer alot of questions about his ability

Nah because the O line is weak. D line weak and D hop out 6 games and they win 8-9 games. Then the Murray needs this and that or the cards have no this or that. So he will get a pass. He will put up some monster games. But every QB is good for 2-3 of these at least.

 

[TSshmoney]

Nah because the O line is weak. D line weak and D hop out 6 games and they win 8-9 games. Then the Murray needs this and that or the cards have no this or that. So he will get a pass. He will put up some monster games. But every QB is good for 2-3 of these at least.

What if he has a good year with a bad o line?

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Not worth the money…very few athletes are….

 

[TSshmoney]

Stats can be looked at 100 ways. His rushing yards for example. Is he rushing by design or because he can’t pass and uses his legs? His average last year was 4.8 yards per rush. That’s middle of the pack. Darnold is 4.7. He is mobile for sure. But he simply isn’t elite as a QB in whole. No such thing as inexperienced in 3 years NFL. You got guys in year two throwing 5,000 yards and 40tds now and days.

In 3 years he has yet to throw 25tds. Averages 3500 yards and 22tds. It’s only 3 years data. So I wouldn’t say that should hold a lot of weight. However, in a pass happy Offense with weapons and speed across the board, that’s not impressive. Matt Ryan Big Ben MAC Jones Ryan T-Hill all on par or better stat wise with basically mirroring stats. Sure, only year 3 and time to grow possibly.

Murray is super accurate based on completion %. So is Tua but watch close and go back and watch any dolphins game to see them motion gelesci or waddle to the LEFT side and watch Tua dump it 2 yards. Murray would work that left side bubble to Hopkins, Fitz in slot 3 yard hitch dumps. I bet Fitz 2 years ago averaged 5-6 catches a game for 35 yards. Meanwhile Isabella Kirk Moore Green ran pretty much go or jet routes on back side. For whatever reason Murray could not connect with Green and found Kirk or Isabella once in a blue moon wide open. But tight window fades he was unproductive. Due to the offense system he will connect on deep balls and Jack his stats. Much like Wilson in Seattle with his backyard style. Murray will be praised a great deep ball passer. Misleading really.

Like Tua they both dump to backs a lot also. Jimmy G same boat. Looks great on paper completing 70% passes. Oh accuracy they say. Not really. Pads the stats that’s all.

Imo He can’t work middle of field, boundaries and can’t lead horizontal passes. Just too limited basically because the crib midget is 5’9 a 1/3 of the field is taken away. The guys helmet looks like a create a character in a game. It’s like watching pop warner kids in helmets.

Not horrible but good nfl QB. Just not elite. Ravens will do the same thing and over pay Lamar. Just not worth that kind of money from a win a SB view. However, it can sell fans etc so as a business decision I won’t knock it.

I have thr utmost respect for how detailed you go into your reasoning i really.mean that too

 

[Willie99]

The highest paid QBs are not winning SBs. We tend to look at QBs and other skilled positions, but it's the 54 man roster that matters most. When you give too much to any player, you have less for the linemen, defense, blocking fullback, blocking TE, linebackers and backups.

The Patriots won as much as they did in large part because Brady played for less (of course, being married to a 60 million dollar per year model helps, but I digress)

Conversely, the Ravens, Giants and Hawks all tanked when Flacco, Eli and Wilson became the highest paid QBs. (not even worth mentioning Jimmy G)

Not many studies out there, but I found one. Since 2013, the highest paid QB advanced to the Final Four once, and never played in the SB.

40% of the QB's were in their rookie contracts still, and 20% were named Brady

I think Mahomes and Allen have just ended their rookie contracts. Their salary cap numbers are about to explode. Maybe that's why a Tyreek Hill gets traded

Examining QB cap hits among championship contenders for the past decade

Brace yourself for more data

www.hogshaven.com

 

[Willie99]

Just checked the cap hits

Allen
2021, 10,000,000
2022, 17,000,000
2023, 40,000,000
2022 might be the last best chance for the Bills

Mahomes
2021, 7,000,000
2022, 36,000,000
2023, 47,000,000
That's 29,000,000 less for other players in 2022

Josh Allen | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Josh Allen contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

Patrick Mahomes | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Patrick Mahomes contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

 

[chrishansen]

What if he has a good year with a bad o line?

A good year is probably 34 TD 4000 yards. Which is solid! Nowhere near elite though. You got old men Brady Rodgers dropping huge numbers. Rodgers beat SF on the road with literally zero players on offense due to covid and drops 30 points. Murray is not doing such.

He is going to need to Average 2td per game. But those are nowhere near elite. Too many weapons. He had Kirk Hop Ertz Moore Isabella Green last year. That’s a well above average personnel per nfl teams. Conners and Chase were solid backfield also.

Carson Wentz is labeled as garbage. He threw 27 td to 7 int last year with 3600 yards. The cards won 2 of 3 games last year with ancient Colt McCoy. Vs good teams Niners and hawks. The colts won 9 with Wentz but he was the scapegoat because the media dictates what we are to think. Murray is considered exciting and marketable due to his legs playmaker. So he gets less critical stuff

Murray had 2 300 yard games
Wentz had 3 300 yard games
Colt had 1 300 yard game 2 games
Brady had 13 300 yd games including playoffs

Wentz QBR 55 27-7-3600
Murray QBR 57 24-10-3700

Wentz had 2 more games played though. Wentz also played in a new offense that’s more conservative. He did however have an elite back and would have been great o line if not for serious injuries. But had no real playmakers in passing game unlike Murray. Murray was in years 3 of same pass friendly offense. Many angels you can take sides with on this kind of thing. Wentz did beat the Murray team last year though fwiw. Is Wentz better? No. However scheme wise Wentz is more versatile to different ones.

Murray is good. Just limited. You win games between the hash via o and d lines and moving the ball between them. This is no secret. Murray is simply not good between the hash especially intermediate 8-15 yards. His interceptions come here but his vision, anticipation and accuracy are just not good here. He struggles in coverages here also. Probably due to he literally can’t see Over the line. He needs a deep pocket and he can’t step into pockets which is a must. Brady and Manning are two of the most elusive QBs. Not because they run like Vick but how they simply step into the pockets. Why teams avoided blitzing A gaps on them idk but it cripples them when done. There is way too much speed and length on the edge in the NFL.

Murray needs deep pockets and likes rolling out right mainly for obvious reasons. Deep pockets create pressure. Moving out to a hash eliminating 1/3 of field is a defense best friend. Not being able to work the middle eliminates 1/3. So in many instances Murray himself will be playing defense himself with 1/3 of the field at times in play. He is not turnover prone though. Interception and lost fumbles are low. However, he does get sacked a lot and creates his own pressure way too much.

Personally with that offense bubble screen left back side go routes and his play making to the right side, I’m surprised (and they may do it much much more this year) teams don’t overload the left side for pressure and force him left the predominant bubble screen side which makes him move and throw left his much weaker side. He already eliminates the middle himself anyway.

And good year or not it’s clear as day he has short man issues. He is not a leader and has childish immature behavior. Before draft he had a tell all attitude trait with Dan Patrick. He has the same disgruntled midget man childish attitude still. He pouted after 3 years wanting more money because he did so much for Arizona. Yet the cards just a few years prior to him were losing SB with Warner and making runs with Palmer deep into playoffs. They have quietly been good the past 15 years. He isn’t worth the money for that price with that skill set and attitude.

 

[TSshmoney]

The highest paid QBs are not winning SBs. We tend to look at QBs and other skilled positions, but it's the 54 man roster that matters most. When you give too much to any player, you have less for the linemen, defense, blocking fullback, blocking TE, linebackers and backups.

The Patriots won as much as they did in large part because Brady played for less (of course, being married to a 60 million dollar per year model helps, but I digress)

Conversely, the Ravens, Giants and Hawks all tanked when Flacco, Eli and Wilson became the highest paid QBs. (not even worth mentioning Jimmy G)

Not many studies out there, but I found one. Since 2013, the highest paid QB advanced to the Final Four once, and never played in the SB.

40% of the QB's were in their rookie contracts still, and 20% were named Brady

I think Mahomes and Allen have just ended their rookie contracts. Their salary cap numbers are about to explode. Maybe that's why a Tyreek Hill gets traded

Examining QB cap hits among championship contenders for the past decade

Brace yourself for more data

www.hogshaven.com

Great post!

 

[chrishansen]

Just checked the cap hits

Allen
2021, 10,000,000
2022, 17,000,000
2023, 40,000,000
2022 might be the last best chance for the Bills

Mahomes
2021, 7,000,000
2022, 36,000,000
2023, 47,000,000
That's 29,000,000 less for other players in 2022

Josh Allen | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Josh Allen contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

Patrick Mahomes | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Patrick Mahomes contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

They will restructure and back load it. The irs loves these big 50% cuts. Will still make it harder to win the big one. Crazy money out there for athletes. You have short windows in nfl for SB title

 

[TSshmoney]

A good year is probably 34 TD 4000 yards. Which is solid! Nowhere near elite though. You got old men Brady Rodgers dropping huge numbers. Rodgers beat SF on the road with literally zero players on offense due to covid and drops 30 points. Murray is not doing such.

He is going to need to Average 2td per game. But those are nowhere near elite. Too many weapons. He had Kirk Hop Ertz Moore Isabella Green last year. That’s a well above average personnel per nfl teams. Conners and Chase were solid backfield also.

Carson Wentz is labeled as garbage. He threw 27 td to 7 int last year with 3600 yards. The cards won 2 of 3 games last year with ancient Colt McCoy. Vs good teams Niners and hawks. The colts won 9 with Wentz but he was the scapegoat because the media dictates what we are to think. Murray is considered exciting and marketable due to his legs playmaker. So he gets less critical stuff

Murray had 2 300 yard games
Wentz had 3 300 yard games
Colt had 1 300 yard game 2 games
Brady had 13 300 yd games including playoffs

Wentz QBR 55 27-7-3600
Murray QBR 57 24-10-3700

Wentz had 2 more games played though. Wentz also played in a new offense that’s more conservative. He did however have an elite back and would have been great o line if not for serious injuries. But had no real playmakers in passing game unlike Murray. Murray was in years 3 of same pass friendly offense. Many angels you can take sides with on this kind of thing. Wentz did beat the Murray team last year though fwiw. Is Wentz better? No. However scheme wise Wentz is more versatile to different ones.

Murray is good. Just limited. You win games between the hash via o and d lines and moving the ball between them. This is no secret. Murray is simply not good between the hash especially intermediate 8-15 yards. His interceptions come here but his vision, anticipation and accuracy are just not good here. He struggles in coverages here also. Probably due to he literally can’t see Over the line. He needs a deep pocket and he can’t step into pockets which is a must. Brady and Manning are two of the most elusive QBs. Not because they run like Vick but how they simply step into the pockets. Why teams avoided blitzing A gaps on them idk but it cripples them when done. There is way too much speed and length on the edge in the NFL.

Murray needs deep pockets and likes rolling out right mainly for obvious reasons. Deep pockets create pressure. Moving out to a hash eliminating 1/3 of field is a defense best friend. Not being able to work the middle eliminates 1/3. So in many instances Murray himself will be playing defense himself with 1/3 of the field at times in play. He is not turnover prone though. Interception and lost fumbles are low. However, he does get sacked a lot and creates his own pressure way too much.

Personally with that offense bubble screen left back side go routes and his play making to the right side, I’m surprised (and they may do it much much more this year) teams don’t overload the left side for pressure and force him left the predominant bubble screen side which makes him move and throw left his much weaker side. He already eliminates the middle himself anyway.

And good year or not it’s clear as day he has short man issues. He is not a leader and has childish immature behavior. Before draft he had a tell all attitude trait with Dan Patrick. He has the same disgruntled midget man childish attitude still. He pouted after 3 years wanting more money because he did so much for Arizona. Yet the cards just a few years prior to him were losing SB with Warner and making runs with Palmer deep into playoffs. They have quietly been good the past 15 years. He isn’t worth the money for that price with that skill set and attitude.

I agree with that i think hes too short to be an elite QB and that they overpaid for him

 

[Bozzie]

5'9..I find that amazing .Would he have even been in the NFL 15 years ago or had a chance of being looked at?
46.1 million year only behind Rodgers salary wise. Crazy

 

[TSshmoney]

They will restructure and back load it. The irs loves these big 50% cuts. Will still make it harder to win the big one. Crazy money out there for athletes. You have short windows in nfl for SB title

Allen has a goddamn cannon on his arm tho id rather be paying him thst type of money than Murray

 

[TSshmoney]

5'9..I find that amazing .Would he have even been in the NFL 15 years ago or had a chance of being looked at?
46.1 million year only behind Rodgers salary wise. Crazy

One of the things i dont like about zach wilson, taller quarterbacks just have a distinct advantage bc of the size of todays lineman

 

[Bozzie]

One of the things i dont like about zach wilson, taller quarterbacks just have a distinct advantage bc of the size of todays lineman

He's done some amazing things with eye popping stats , with the cardinals history of crappy QBs I'd guess the franchise felt like he couldn't get away...QB league forever. Hopefully he hangs on to the ball this season

 

[chrishansen]

5'9..I find that amazing .Would he have even been in the NFL 15 years ago or had a chance of being looked at?
46.1 million year only behind Rodgers salary wise. Crazy

They say 5’10 and a 1/2 lol.

He didn’t measure at combine. But few slick tactics can be hiding standing on toes slightly plus tilting head up slightly can add inch or more easily. Dude is 5’8 imo. And is mentally not happy about it. His helmet looks like a helmet on a kid in pop warner.

Being short doesn’t mean he can’t be a good to somewhat great QB. He just lacks certain skills that can help him get there imo.

D King QB Miami Hurricanes draft this year
5’8
196
28 Arm length
71’ wingspan

Drew Brees combine
6’
213
31’ arm length
74’ wingspan

D Flutie
5’10
182
29’ arm
69’ wingspan

R Wilson
5’11
203
31’ arm
71 wingspan

K Murray
5 10’ 1/4
28’ arm length
69’ wingspan
Weight 207 BS
His teammate M Brown WR
5’9
170
31 arm
72 wing

There is a great picture of Murray with other rookies in a photo. He is standing next to Brown and others with his somewhat high top hair do (kind like mahomes does to seem little bigger, mahomes is not a tall guy either). But in the group photo Murray is clearly standing way in front of brown (which obviously makes him look taller)

5’8 or 6’ I could care less. Just own it and play ball. More advantages being taller at QB but shorter has a few also.

 

[chrishansen]

He's done some amazing things with eye popping stats , with the cardinals history of crappy QBs I'd guess the franchise felt like he couldn't get away...QB league forever. Hopefully he hangs on to the ball this season

What eye popping stats? And just how bad were cards QBs past 15 years? Few sucked sure. But warner SB not bad with cards few years but trash other years. and Palmer was pretty good leading them to 13-3 record in 2016. That’s just 5 years ago. Warner is one of most overrated QB’s but always gets praise. Palmer was more consistent and flat out better! Media ruins truth!

Palmer 2016 4800 yards 35 TD 11 int 13-3 record
Murray 2021 3600 yards 24 Td 10 int 11-6 record 2 wins by colt McCoy

Palmer 2013 4300 yards 27 TD 22 int 10-6 record
Palmer 2015 1700 yards 11 TD 3 int 6-0 record before injury missed season

Murray consistently been very consistently 3700-24-11. Again 3 years so room to grow And he may be a 4500-40-15 QB who knows. Outside some electric scampers not much eye popping stat wise imo. I’d pay him for the business aspect fans and seats etc and he is marketable. But not for winning a title.

 

[TSshmoney]

What eye popping stats? And just how bad were cards QBs past 15 years? Few sucked sure. But warner SB not bad with cards few years but trash other years. and Palmer was pretty good leading them to 13-3 record in 2016. That’s just 5 years ago. Warner is one of most overrated QB’s but always gets praise. Palmer was more consistent and flat out better! Media ruins truth!

Palmer 2016 4800 yards 35 TD 11 int 13-3 record
Murray 2021 3600 yards 24 Td 10 int 11-6 record 2 wins by colt McCoy

Palmer 2013 4300 yards 27 TD 22 int 10-6 record
Palmer 2015 1700 yards 11 TD 3 int 6-0 record before injury missed season

Murray consistently been very consistently 3700-24-11. Again 3 years so room to grow And he may be a 4500-40-15 QB who knows. Outside some electric scampers not much eye popping stat wise imo. I’d pay him for the business aspect fans and seats etc and he is marketable. But not for winning a title.

I def think he can win a title but not as the centerpiece of the team.... simply takes too much salary cap percentage up and doesnt make enough of the difference up with his arm

 

[michael777]

midget from the circus ,terrible move by AZ

 

[Bozzie]

What eye popping stats? And just how bad were cards QBs past 15 years? Few sucked sure. But warner SB not bad with cards few years but trash other years. and Palmer was pretty good leading them to 13-3 record in 2016. That’s just 5 years ago. Warner is one of most overrated QB’s but always gets praise. Palmer was more consistent and flat out better! Media ruins truth!

Palmer 2016 4800 yards 35 TD 11 int 13-3 record
Murray 2021 3600 yards 24 Td 10 int 11-6 record 2 wins by colt McCoy

Palmer 2013 4300 yards 27 TD 22 int 10-6 record
Palmer 2015 1700 yards 11 TD 3 int 6-0 record before injury missed season

Murray consistently been very consistently 3700-24-11. Again 3 years so room to grow And he may be a 4500-40-15 QB who knows. Outside some electric scampers not much eye popping stat wise imo. I’d pay him for the business aspect fans and seats etc and he is marketable. But not for winning a title.

Okay maybe note eye popping he's been good when he's healthy. Good deal? Guess we'll see, gotta stay healthy ,I doubt he does though. Had my team made him the second highest QB in the league I wouldn't be too happy.

Interesting stat..Winston? nuts.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550219064680800261