Any smart Gold and Silver investors? Where's the bottom?

[akphidelt]

Damn!!! September was a brutal month for Silver/Gold owners...
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GOLD PRICES fell hard against the Dollar mid-morning Tuesday in London, sinking to fresh 2014 lows as the US currency rose again.

The Dollar extended its rise vs. the Euro to new two-year highs after last month's Eurozone inflation was reported at just 0.3% annually across the 18-nation currency union.

Recording their lowest London Fix since New Year's Eve at $1210 per ounce, Dollar gold prices stood 6.3% down for September – the sharpest 1-month drop since June 2013's fall of 14%.

Silver prices followed gold lower in Dollar, hitting their lowest London midday price (formerly known as the Silver Fix) since 26 March 2010 at $17.11 per ounce for a 1-month drop of 12.1%.

"Until such time as the 'Gold Bugs' finally give up and exit their trades, the next bull market in gold will not begin," says Dennis Gartman, editor of eponymous tip-sheet the Gartman Letter.

"The market wants to take out the true-believers before gold goes higher. It shall be either boredom or despair that shall take the 'Bugs' out. We hope for the former; we fear the latter."

The surging Dollar today left gold prices for UK investors at only 3-session lows above £745 per ounce in London trade.

Euro gold prices were little changed on the day, less than 5% below the last 12 months' high.

Looking at Dollar gold prices, Bloomberg quotes Chinese brokerage Citics Futures' analyst Zhu Runyu, "The divergence in monetary policies between the Fed and other central banks will further push up the Dollar and weigh on gold.

"As geopolitical tensions fade, gold has also lost a key price support this year."

 

[brucefan]

The consensus view is our economy is recovering, the world has an insatiable demand for our treasuries no matter what the real rate of return is, we will be raising rates shortly , and the Fed will just let their. 4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet mature in an orderly fashion. Why own Gold?
:missingte

PS. Ignore that ISM print today. Im sure the job numbers on Friday will confirm the collapse,...... I mean recovery

 

[ivyconniver]

Metals are a hobby not an investment, just buy coins at the flea market for fun and call it a day.

Buy the financials here, BAC, JPM, WFC. Govt settlements are mostly out of the way, dividends are increasing, and profits will increase dramatically when interest rates rise. You can take that to the bank.

That said, never take investment advice from people on internet gambling forums. Especially from this HPark nutjob.

 

[HPark1]

Metals are a hobby not an investment, just buy coins at the flea market for fun and call it a day.

Buy the financials here, BAC, JPM, WFC. Govt settlements are mostly out of the way, dividends are increasing, and profits will increase dramatically when interest rates rise. You can take that to the bank.

That said, never take investment advice from people on internet gambling forums. Especially from this HPark nutjob.

This is so wrong it almost has to be a joke. Your advice is to pile into the safe haven of financial institutions? You cannot be serious, the balance sheets of all the big banks when you appropriately value their assets is shocking. They literally package a pile of garbage and call it a fancy name and assess it a value and throw it on their books. If the "Federal" Reserve doesn't continue give them new monopoly money they will all collapse.

Since '08 the situation is multiple times worse and with the derivatives market so deep and wide sprawling when one bank goes down it can only set off a chain reaction.

I really struggle how anyone takes the financial system seriously to start. The current world reserve currency is controlled by a private group which is governed by nobody but themselves. All they do is create endless more currency to keep the ponzi going.

 

[niltes]

when brucefan says that the fed will let their 4.5 trillion balance sheet mature in
an orderly fashion, he is stating a view that most people don't subscribe to.
i think he's 100% right, as that seems to br the feds only sensible option.
any premature or aggressive unwinding by the fed would really disrupt the markets
and the economy is too fragile for that type of market reaction.

i've traded gold options for the last decade or so and am asked many times
what direction the price of gold is going in. i haven't a clue. i can make a
decent case for prices to go much higher, significantly lower, or remain unchanged.
in addition i could find 100 experts with impressive credentials and nice looking
charts to support any of those premises. my gut feel is that prices should rise,
but something seems wrong. gold is very seasonal and usually rises from septemberish
until the end if the year due to the physical demand from asia. this year, that hasn't
happened and is very worrysome. if you are bullish long term on the price of an asset
like gold, don't try to time it; but buy a certain % over time at planned intervals. this
is rederred to as averaging ones cost. hope this helps.

 

[akphidelt]

I don't think the Fed has any problem whatsoever with their large balance sheet or what to do with it. Their entire objective is interest rates. When they do QE's they are simply swapping two interest bearing assets with eachother. Reserves for Treasuries and vice versa. No one is really effected by their actions other than banks.

 

[akphidelt]

This is so wrong it almost has to be a joke. Your advice is to pile into the safe haven of financial institutions? You cannot be serious, the balance sheets of all the big banks when you appropriately value their assets is shocking. They literally package a pile of garbage and call it a fancy name and assess it a value and throw it on their books. If the "Federal" Reserve doesn't continue give them new monopoly money they will all collapse.

Since '08 the situation is multiple times worse and with the derivatives market so deep and wide sprawling when one bank goes down it can only set off a chain reaction.

I really struggle how anyone takes the financial system seriously to start. The current world reserve currency is controlled by a private group which is governed by nobody but themselves. All they do is create endless more currency to keep the ponzi going.

Lol, the fear mongerers never stop. Been hearing this for the past 3 century.

 

[TheWolf]

Your statement could not be any further from the truth.

If you believe this you are either horribly misinformed or a victim to propaganda.

Its useless debating with him Hpark. Let it go.

Then again, he may be the only demi-god who knows pays attention to the gold/silver markets and knows who Peter Schiff is.

 

[TheWolf]

yeah true..I need to loadup on ammo

if I build an underground shelter, does anyone know anything about how the cable wiring with that would work? Need NFL RedZone on Sundays.

You'll be alright without Redzone now. It's over for Brady anyway

 

[TheWolf]

Lol, the fear mongerers never stop. Been hearing this for the past 3 century.

FYI....

Hpark1 is one of the sharpest posters in this forum.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Its useless debating with him Hpark. Let it go.

Then again, he may be the only demi-god who knows pays attention to the gold/silver markets and knows who Peter Schiff is.

The bottom line is nobody really knows for sure.
Weren't you the guy who started the investment of a lifetime thread for silver at $40 an ounce?

Place your bets and see where the dust settles is all you can do.
To call someone an idiot for not agreeing with HPARK is idiotic.

 

[akphidelt]

FYI....

Hpark1 is one of the sharpest posters in this forum.

Maybe in other subjects but definitely not this one. Anti-fiat money loons have been around for centuries. I'm just waiting for the Weimar Republic speech!

 

[TheWolf]

The bottom line is nobody really knows for sure.
Weren't you the guy who started the investment of a lifetime thread for silver at $40 an ounce?

Place your bets and see where the dust settles is all you can do.
To call someone an idiot for not agreeing with HPARK is idiotic.

I agree that no one knows for sure b/c the markets are heavily manipulated.

I called no one an idiot. Please point out where I called him an idiot.

 

[TheWolf]

Maybe in other subjects but definitely not this one. Anti-fiat money loons have been around for centuries. I'm just waiting for the Weimar Republic speech!

I wouldnt call him an anti fiat loon by no means. He seems like a very sharp person in many aspects of life.

I'm not going to get into an economic debate with you but you simply repeat what you learned in your school text books, which was stuff written by the same people who use the system to their benefit.

You just need to be a little more open minded and objective.......at least you are hip to gold/silver and Peter Schiff

 

[akphidelt]

I wouldnt call him an anti fiat loon by no means. He seems like a very sharp person in many aspects of life.

I'm not going to get into an economic debate with you but you simply repeat what you learned in your school text books, which was stuff written by the same people who use the system to their benefit.

You just need to be a little more open minded and objective.......at least you are hip to gold/silver and Peter Schiff

Well, I like owning physical gold and silver. Has nothing to do with preparing for Armageddon or being anti-government like Peter Schiff. Peter Schiff was pretty much dead wrong on every prediction he made after the housing collapse.

And yes, HPark is an anti-fiat, anti-govt loon.

Textbooks and education is how the world works. People who are very smart in the subject understand that gold and silver are nothing but useless metals that have some minimal uses in industry. I mean how many years of people calling for the downfall of the USD or hyperinflation need to go by before you start questioning their knowledge of the system?

I mean for the past 20 years we have been hearing about how the US is going to lose world reserve currency status and everything will crumble once we do. People said the Fed with quantitative easing would cause massive inflation. None of this has happened... don't you ever wonder why?

 

[ivyconniver]

Wolf and HP can continue to with their conspiracy theories and fear mongering about the markets. Akphi and I will continue investing in the markets. We'll see who comes out ahead at virtually every time period in the future. The newspapers, CNBC, and Fox News make money on fear. Investors make money by rationally investing where opportunities present themselves. You don't have to like the federal deficit, monetary policy, big banks, and government regulation, but you can still make money investing around it.

Just remember, even the worst investor in the world that invested in America at the top of the 2007 markets right before the crash has made good money. Just a fact, nothing to debate.

 

[brucefan]

What asset does the Fed give in return for the treasuries , mortgage backed securities, and whatever else they bought ? Do you think if the Fed has to start selling these assets into the market that rates would stay at this level, or do you think when the markets sees the largest owner of treasuries hitting every bid possible , that the bids just dissapear? Who will buy all these bonds? Even if they are silly enough to believe they can just wait and let their portfolio mature, who will redeem these bonds and with what money? How much
of our budget will just go to pay the interest on our debt if rates rise?
No, there is no way out for us other then more borrowing and printing, and the gold price will reflect that maybe as soon as tomorrow
The only reason gold has been destroyed is manipulation by the central banks and the public buying into a fairy tail narrative that we just grow our way out this mess and rates will rise gradually as we grow. Stagflation will be a word many people will learn very soon

 

[akphidelt]

What asset does the Fed give in return for the treasuries , mortgage backed securities, and whatever else they bought ? Do you think if the Fed has to start selling these assets into the market that rates would stay at this level, or do you think when the markets sees the largest owner of treasuries hitting every bid possible , that the bids just dissapear?

Feds exchange reserves for treasuries. Absolutely no new money is created in the process. Only targeting interest rates.

The Fed does not have to do anything unless they believe it is time to raise interest rates. Remember, they create the market for treasuries through their use of primary dealers. It's pretty much a meaningless transaction to the real economy other than a decrease in interest rates.

Who will buy all these bonds? Even if they are silly enough to believe they can just wait and let their portfolio mature, who will redeem these bonds and with what money? How much

The primary dealers will buy them and the only thing that will change is they will have a different interest bearing asset on their balance sheet. The Fed instituted the IOER because of the influx of reserves to give the banks some sort of interest on their excess reserves. So the Fed does not and will never care about finding buyers for treasuries. We create the buyers and the market.

of our budget will just go to pay the interest on our debt if rates rise?

The Fed would never let interest on our debt go above rates that cause harm to the economy. They have complete control.

No, there is no way out for us other then more borrowing and printing, and the gold price will reflect that maybe as soon as tomorrow
The only reason gold has been destroyed is manipulation by the central banks and the public buying into a fairy tail narrative that we just grow our way out this mess and rates will rise gradually as we grow. Stagflation will be a word many people will learn very soon

We should be borrowing much more, the government should be spending much more. Spending money is what creates growth, the last thing you want is the government to be reducing spending at the same time the public is saving money. That's a recipe for disaster.

 

[tanner12oz]

This is so wrong it almost has to be a joke. Your advice is to pile into the safe haven of financial institutions? You cannot be serious, the balance sheets of all the big banks when you appropriately value their assets is shocking. They literally package a pile of garbage and call it a fancy name and assess it a value and throw it on their books. If the "Federal" Reserve doesn't continue give them new monopoly money they will all collapse.

Since '08 the situation is multiple times worse and with the derivatives market so deep and wide sprawling when one bank goes down it can only set off a chain reaction.

I really struggle how anyone takes the financial system seriously to start. The current world reserve currency is controlled by a private group which is governed by nobody but themselves. All they do is create endless more currency to keep the ponzi going.

the powers that be are involved with these institutions they have a rooting interest..they are all in bed together and will do everything possible to keep them afloat...they don't give 2 shits about gold...they run the show. The market should've toast but its not and won't be because they are the ones pulling the strings

 

[PatsFan1283]

What asset does the Fed give in return for the treasuries , mortgage backed securities, and whatever else they bought ? Do you think if the Fed has to start selling these assets into the market that rates would stay at this level, or do you think when the markets sees the largest owner of treasuries hitting every bid possible , that the bids just dissapear? Who will buy all these bonds? Even if they are silly enough to believe they can just wait and let their portfolio mature, who will redeem these bonds and with what money? How much
of our budget will just go to pay the interest on our debt if rates rise?
No, there is no way out for us other then more borrowing and printing, and the gold price will reflect that maybe as soon as tomorrow
The only reason gold has been destroyed is manipulation by the central banks and the public buying into a fairy tail narrative that we just grow our way out this mess and rates will rise gradually as we grow. Stagflation will be a word many people will learn very soon

How soon? Next 3 years? next 50?

We've been hearing about stagflation for a while now and it hasn't happened.

I'm not saying I find your perspective to be inaccurate but I think people often times only look at one piece of the pie when looking at the overall economic/societal outlook.