American Idol Final Tonight

[jcambert]

Ehhhhh. Think again. Don't try to argue on an intellectual level with me, because, you are going to lose, as cocky as that may sound. I do this for a LIVING, and, I have MUCH MORE than a fundamental understanding of statistics. Polling 750,000 people means NOTHING when the ultimate sample will consist of 25 million. With that sample size, assuming that you poll 750k, you are talking about an 8-10% margin of error, so, again, don't try to pass yourself off as a mathematician.

And, as for my "sometimes weak arguments" comment is concerned, I will refer you to the fact that at the very least, I watched the show consistently, which you didn't do, so, how you are qualified to have ANY argument with me, let alone an intelligent one, is beyond me.

By the way, there was less than 1% of the vote separating these two, as stated on the show in the last few minutes, which kind of blows your whole "aol poll" theory right to pieces.

Ehhhh. Try again, friend.

JP

 

[Oren1]

I didn't. I've taken basic statistics, that's all I said. And I didn't hear them say that there was 1% seperating the two, your aren't talking about the beginning of the show when he actually said there was 2% seperating the two? I'd say there are a lot of things you can gamble on successfully without ever watching a single game, movie, or television show, if you research correctly.
Again, I don't claim to be a mathemetician, but your statistical argument appears to be incorrect. I looked this up.
"The margin of error in a sample = 1 divided by the square root of the number of people in the sample"
The size of actual votes is irrelevant, you mereley need a large sample to increase your accuracy. See, my subconscious remembered this from all the way back in college, go figure! So what do we have here, 1 divided by 866.025 equals um .0011. I think you move the decimals over 2 or something, maybe you can help me out here, oh intellectual giant, so we have a margin of error of .1 percent. Hmmmmmmm looks like my origional 99% accuracy guess stands correct.

 

[HacheMan]

Fox is a crop of lying sacks of krap.......No way in hell did 1,300 votes separate Ruben and Clay out of 24 million votes.......simply impossible......

 

[jcambert]

Congrats, Oren. I still think that, when all is said and done, Clay will probably make it bigger than Reuben.

Anyway, congrats. Now, let's get back to talking Box Office Props.

JP

 

[Oren1]

hahah just kidding. I'm sure you're going to win this one, as you said, the new polls heavily favor Clay. It's going to be a landslide. Anyways, these summer movie wagers seem to be getting harder to predict... I guess you can't win 'em all.

 

[HacheMan]

I knew this would be the result, "created" by Fox, but I didnt expect them to think we are all a bunch of morons by coming out and actually saying that the slimmest of margins separated the 2. Whether you prefer Ruben, or whether you prefer Clay, every poll in the whole freakin nation, television, radio, internet, had Clay winning easily. Just impossible that 1,300 votes out of 24 million separated the 2, and I cant believe Fox expects anyone to believe it that has any sense at all.

 

[Oren1]

It's actually possible, considering that their phone lines only have so much capacity and are open for only so long, with millions of fans hammering, and flooding, both sides, for there to be somewhat equal results.

 

[HacheMan]

oren, I think Fox just said that is was so close to try to help their cover up.

 

[Oren1]

Well if Fox does skew the results, Ruben still has a chance, maybe they'll give it to him to prevent the potential for riots, and to split the winners of the last two years between white/black. Last years winner was white, I assume?

 

[SonofaGun]

RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUBENNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[SonofaGun]

I TOLD YOU ALL THE PRODUCERS, EXECS, ETC. HAVE A HAND IN THIS!

 

[SonofaGun]

if Clay had some facial hairs and stopped looking like a sissy, he would've won this by far. I'm happy though!

 

[Two-Niner]

Is Clay really 145 lbs like they said? At over 6 ft that is one skinny bitch

 

[Oren1]

RRRRRRRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Man, when Simon said that bit about talent winning in the end at the last minute, I thought for sure we were toast. But the way they structured the show made you feel like Ruben just might end up being the winner. New York - Clay, Florida- Rueben, Ohio - Clay, WINNER- Ruben. It also went Ruben's performance('without wings', much better tonight by the way) then Clay's performance, then the award goes to Ruben, also a pattern there. As soon as they said Clay won New York I knew we had a chance because you knew those caniving motha****as wanted to sneek in some way to have a 'surprise' factor in their show. But New York is a big state so it was troubling at the same time

 

[SonofaGun]

they made that whole thing seem like it was the most important fukking thing going on in the world at that time. I gotta love how they treated the American public to be fukking morons as if they were "just" finding out who the winner was going to be. The winner was already set wayyyyyy before imo. As long as Ruben didn't fukk up too bad (and he didn't last night) he was going to get it. I feel bad for Clay though. He DOES have an awesome voice, but only if he had some testosterone....LOL.

 

[Oren1]

I don't know, I thought Ruben's voice cracked a bit on the high notes on his last song last night, while tonight he hit them dead-on. Anyways, yeah, heh, I was thinking the same thing, that was ludicrous how they dragged the show out for 2 frickin hours, which must have been a full 60 minutes of commercials, by saying, we've got a voting update! So-and so won this state! Like it's the mother****in' presidential elections or something

 

[SonofaGun]

where's jcambert?

You indeed had good value, but it didn't show up. Entertainment politics my friend.

But, had I known what you knew about Clay being the topseller at Amazon, I might've hesitated betting on Ruben.