$300.00 ‘Under 47.0 BYU at TCU (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 16)
These are two teams with strong defenses and a great familiarity with one another. This is a crucial game in the Mountain West and, on a national stage, I expect both teams to dance around the ring a lot without throwing many big punches. TCU has an absolutely dominating defensive front seven, as indicated by them giving up -49 rushing yards in the second half of their last game. The ‘under’ is 8-1 in the Horned Frogs’ last nine home games and the ‘under’ is 11-4 in BYU’s last 15 games on grass.
$300.00 #318 Boston College (-3) over Virginia Tech (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 18)
This line is a red flag to me and I think any time you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team you really have to step back and ask yourself why. QB Crane has been steadily improving for the Eagles and I am still not sold on this Virginia Tech team. Their defense is strong but they don’t move the ball consistently. Boston College is 7-2 ATS in this series and this is a big-time revenge game for the Eagles, who were beaten in the ACC Title Game last year by the Hokies.
$500.00 #316 Duke (+4) over Miami (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 18)
Miami is simply not the Miami of old and they have been a terrible bet on the college board over the last several years. I am not overwhelmed by Duke, but Miami has been so bad ATS that you have to consider betting against them every week. Miami is 7-19-1 ATS in conference games and 9-22-1 ATS overall.
$500.00 #307 Connecticut (-1) over Rutgers (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 18)
Rutgers has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country this year and quarterback Mike Teel has lost his team. The Huskies are without their starting QB, but they still have one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Connecticut has had an extra week to get their new signal caller prepped for this one and the Huskies are a stellar 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I think that they bounce back here in a tight game, and UCon is 7-1 ATS after a loss against the spread.
$1000.00 #334 Mississippi St. (+7.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 18)
The Volunteers simply are not up to the caliber of team that this program has been producing over the last decade and I don’t see how they could be laying over a touchdown to anyone. The Vols are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this year and just 1-4 when laying points over the last two years. They are getting shaky quarterback play and the calls for Phil Fulmer’s scalp are starting to overshadow the team. Mississippi State is coming off an inspired win over a tough Vanderbilt squad and they are now 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Bulldogs are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games and this is a situation I think they can win outright. Last year these two teams met and the Bulldogs played tough against a much better Vols team, staying within 27-21 until later in the fourth quarter.