RUTGERS/NCST
We have 2 of the hottest teams in CFB, Rutgers have won their last 6 games after opening 1-5. NCST were 2-6 heading into Nov. but have won their last 4 games knocking off 3 bowl teams in 3 games.
Rutgers will try to control the ball in the air,NCST finished last in ACC pass Defense. However the Wolfpack as of late are allowing fewer than 200 yds per gm.through the air w/ 8 int...Russell Wilson has a 11-0 TD/INT ratio
If NCST can keep Teel from a big day, its doubtful the Knight's will win.
Also,Tom O'Brien has an extroadinary post season record (w/BC) he has won his last 6 bowl games, Also 4-0 in head to head match-ups w/ Greg Schiano.
The line opened at RUTGERS -4.5 its drifted to -8 (some places) whenever an underdog has a solid chance to win dont be afraid to jump in w/ both feet. NCST could easily put an end to the Knight's winning streak.
Im on NCST WOLFPACK + the pts
Good luck everyone:toast:
We have 2 of the hottest teams in CFB, Rutgers have won their last 6 games after opening 1-5. NCST were 2-6 heading into Nov. but have won their last 4 games knocking off 3 bowl teams in 3 games.
Rutgers will try to control the ball in the air,NCST finished last in ACC pass Defense. However the Wolfpack as of late are allowing fewer than 200 yds per gm.through the air w/ 8 int...Russell Wilson has a 11-0 TD/INT ratio
If NCST can keep Teel from a big day, its doubtful the Knight's will win.
Also,Tom O'Brien has an extroadinary post season record (w/BC) he has won his last 6 bowl games, Also 4-0 in head to head match-ups w/ Greg Schiano.
The line opened at RUTGERS -4.5 its drifted to -8 (some places) whenever an underdog has a solid chance to win dont be afraid to jump in w/ both feet. NCST could easily put an end to the Knight's winning streak.
Im on NCST WOLFPACK + the pts
Good luck everyone:toast:
Problem here is that although States defense did improve with alot of players coming back from injuries, the offenses they played during the 4 game win streak were either anemic (Duke, Wake Forest) or going through some serious QB troubles (UNC, Miami). Rutgers doesn't have problems in either area and thats why I think the over is the best bet in this game. State shouldn't have too much of a problem scoring points but I think Rutgers has the potential to break 40. I won't play rutgers mainly because O'Brien is such a strong bowl coach, but otherwise the Knights look like the are going to give the NC State D trouble. I'm a State fan so I hope your right...
i agree with the over, but i still like nc st here, and now that the line is over 7 it's even more attractive...nc st defense showed something vs wake, holding them to a fg after wilson fumble gave them 1st down in red zone, and holding them on final drive...wake also scored on a trick play wr pass, and wolfpack also faced duke with lewis at qb, which is a lot different than duke when they played without him...i certainly see the concern, though, especially against a passing offense like rutgers...but teel is known to throw a pick or two, and we all know how big TO margin is
This is what I was thinking. And why I really like the over. NCST really hasn't played a team who can trade scores with them for the last few games now. And we all know that Rutgers will keep coming at them. Teel is probably the best passing QB that NCST has faced all year. On the other side of the ball I'm not enamored with either of these defenses. So with the line over a TD, I do give NCST a pretty good chance to come in and cover this spread. I'm just waiting to see if this line continues to go up before I play it. What it comes down to is one team who has covered in 7 straight games against a team who has covered 9 straight. So something's got to give. On a neutral field between two hot teams, I just prefer to take the dog. Especially since personnel-wise both of these teams are pretty evenly matched.
I feel like it is smart to tready lightly on both the FSU and BC games, both teams have some definite weaknesses that can be exploited. Especially the way BC struggles offensively. They are more than a little pissed to be in this game and I don't expect a big performance from them here, though I'm still looking @ it...
ok this might sound a little counter-intuitive but I really think Miami suspending Marve for this game helps out the Hurricanes alot as it forces Randy Shannon to stick with his better QB instead of constantly switching QB's and not letting anyone establish momentum. I am buying back a unit on Cal with a 1 unit wager on the Canes @ +8. In effect Cal is now a 2 unit play for me.
** Wisconsin Badgers +6
I feel like the badgers have been forgotten after failing to meet their lofty preseason expectations, but this team has closed the season by winning 4 of 5 games. None of these wins are very impressive but I like to back a team that is on a roll @ the end of the season. Teams finishing strong have alot easier time maintaining that form under the idea of building positive momentum for next season. FSU has struggled with consistency at the end of the year, winning only 2 of their last 5 games (including 2 games @ home) To me it looks like a team who peaked too early.
These are two pretty average quaterbacks going against defenses that have had alot of success against the pass (last 3 games: 45 percent def completion % for Wisc and 52.5 for FSU) I think both gameplans will be pretty conservative and I like the way that the Badger ground game matches up here. Wisconsin has put up an outstanding 6.2 ypc over their last 3 road games, as compared to FSU giving up 5.7 ypc against that same metric.
I can see this game being played on the ground as both teams try to control the lines of scrimmage. FSU has some definate depth issues in the trenches and I think the power Wisconsin ground game will wear on them as the game wears on. After looking into this game it looks like to me FSU has the better talent but I like the way the style and momentum of Wisconsin match up. To me it looks like a pickem' type of situation and for that I am grateful for the 6 points. I look for the Badgers to pull the outright upset against a disappointing FSU team
** Wisconsin Badgers +6
I feel like the badgers have been forgotten after failing to meet their lofty preseason expectations, but this team has closed the season by winning 4 of 5 games. None of these wins are very impressive but I like to back a team that is on a roll @ the end of the season. Teams finishing strong have alot easier time maintaining that form under the idea of building positive momentum for next season. FSU has struggled with consistency at the end of the year, winning only 2 of their last 5 games (including 2 games @ home) To me it looks like a team who peaked too early.
These are two pretty average quaterbacks going against defenses that have had alot of success against the pass (last 3 games: 45 percent def completion % for Wisc and 52.5 for FSU) I think both gameplans will be pretty conservative and I like the way that the Badger ground game matches up here. Wisconsin has put up an outstanding 6.2 ypc over their last 3 road games, as compared to FSU giving up 5.7 ypc against that same metric.
I can see this game being played on the ground as both teams try to control the lines of scrimmage. FSU has some definate depth issues in the trenches and I think the power Wisconsin ground game will wear on them as the game wears on. After looking into this game it looks like to me FSU has the better talent but I like the way the style and momentum of Wisconsin match up. To me it looks like a pickem' type of situation and for that I am grateful for the 6 points. I look for the Badgers to pull the outright upset against a disappointing FSU team
** North Carolina Tar Heels +2
Talked about this game in a few other threads but I like this young Tarheel team to try and get some positive momentum going into the next season. I feel like the extra practice time has been big for Carolina because for the last few weeks their biggest issue offensively has been their problem with consistent QB play. WVU defense is very average (23.3 FD per game and 400 yards in last 3 contests) and should have some difficulty with the balance that Carolina is going to have in this game.
I like to fade teams who had high expectations at the start of the season and then failed to live up to them. I see this senior-laden Mountaineer team perhaps not having quite the motivation that Carolina will have. Add in the close proximity to home for Carolina and the MASSIVE coaching-talent disparity and I think Carolina is going to beat up on WVU.
Leaning very hard on the Under in this game because I think both offenses will struggle somewhat here but its not a play as of now. Hope everyone is having a happy holiday...
Talked about this game in a few other threads but I like this young Tarheel team to try and get some positive momentum going into the next season. I feel like the extra practice time has been big for Carolina because for the last few weeks their biggest issue offensively has been their problem with consistent QB play. WVU defense is very average (23.3 FD per game and 400 yards in last 3 contests) and should have some difficulty with the balance that Carolina is going to have in this game.
I like to fade teams who had high expectations at the start of the season and then failed to live up to them. I see this senior-laden Mountaineer team perhaps not having quite the motivation that Carolina will have. Add in the close proximity to home for Carolina and the MASSIVE coaching-talent disparity and I think Carolina is going to beat up on WVU.
Leaning very hard on the Under in this game because I think both offenses will struggle somewhat here but its not a play as of now. Hope everyone is having a happy holiday...
I agree wholeheartedly with you and I did do a good amount of my bet straight up but I don't post that as a play because I like to keep my record keeping strictly for ATS. I think next year I will keep a seperate record for things like ML dogs as they have been pretty good plays for me this season. BOL to you on your action tomorrow man :toast:
