Apothic clearly knows Vegas better than I do. I usually hit Reno and found the William Hill books have the widest variety of soccer bets. Although, my word of warning on futures is they are usually wastes of money. Yes, you can win but you can win more during the season playing individual matches on the team you think can win the overall title. And you're not waiting (in this case) nine months for a payout. The only futures I bet are tournaments, where the turnaround time is only a month or so.
FRIDAY
IRELAND
Derry City -.5 +102/Longford, 2 units
Shamrock -1 -131/Drogheda, 2 units
Cork -1 -108/Bohemians, 1 unit
Record: 284-316.5, +68.43
Guys, thanks for the advice!
I agree that it is bad business to tie money up for a full season. But I really think there is great value in a handful of futures every year in most sports. I got Peterson for Leading Rusher at 85-1 during preseason of his rookie year. That number being greater than 20 was a shock to me and it is probably he biggest futures value I have ever seen. I was a pussy and only bet $50. You run that season back 100 times and he wins the rushing title at least 30 of them........ and that number is so low exclusively because of the probability of injury.
These are some of the good (but not great) values that I see in England:
Leading Scorer
Benteke 20-1 (should be about 12 at most)
Giroud 25-1 (should be about 16 at most)
Mitrovic 100-1 (should be about 35 at most)
This market is way out-of-whack because the two favorites, Costa and Aguero, almost always miss a bunch of games through injury. I'm really hoping that there is a place in Vegas that will take a bet on Mitrovic. He has the right combination of talent, temperament and opportunity to be a leading scorer.
The odds seem about right at 25-1 for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to win Young POY. But I have such a strong feeling about this one that I am going for it.
I am so confident that Chelsea and Arsenal will be 10 points better than the rest of the league, that I am investigating whether there are a few value bets out there that can provide a big return that would reflect this reality.
BTW, I have watched just about every Arsenal game (preseason, cups, league, youth) for well over 10 years. This is the first time I am betting on them since 2005. My recommendation would be to bet on them early and often. There is something so different this year about the team, the club, the environment and the fans and it will lead to an extraordinarily successful season. The quality in the depth at most positions is top top notch. One word of caution, though, would be that betting on Arsenal should NOT occur if/when Arteta is starting. His lack of pace (Mertesacker is both quicker and faster, if you can believe it) causes a chain reaction throughout the field that hurts both the offense and the defense. Therefore, the only injury that would alter my betting much would be to Coquelin (and possibly Koscielny).
Lastly, I would warn everyone against betting on ManU. They achieved well over 10 more points than their play deserved last year. This was not a case of "you make your own luck". These were more cases of "what the hell just happened......I can't believe that they got points". Also, De Gea put one of the all-time goalkeeping seasons together. Its just preseason, but he now appears totally destabilized. His body seems to be on the pitch, but his mind is in Madrid. Even if he stays, I just can't see him being close to where he was last season. That combined with all of the player and management turnover the last three years means that IMHO the "over" should be a good bet for almost all ManU games early in the season.
APothic,
What do you think of the Westgate for Soccer bets? Also, do you guys know a site that posts current odds from the Vegas books?