A few here are making a TON of $$ with LITTLE risk!!

[drunkguy]

From what you said, if I only bet at the "weak" shop then I'd never bet at Pinnacle. If I never bet at Pinnacle then I wouldn't have the profits that I win there, alebit smaller than at the weak shops. I'd rather win more than less. Not to mention that it allows you to bet size to the max at the weak shop because of the number on the other side, which you might not otherwise do depending on bankroll.

sure, but you would be winning MORE at the weak shops because you wouldn't be buying back you bets into negative expectation lines.


e.g. Pinny has +100, SIA has +110 on the other side. We will call pinny's line the "right" one, so 50% chance of either side hitting

50% of the time you will win at Pinny

50% of the time you will win at SIA

you are better off just taking the +110 on a 50% shot, even though half the time that side will lose

now lets say we know the chance is actually 50%. You bet 525 to win 525 at Pinny and 500 to win 550 at SIA

after 100 games, you win 1250 at pinny and 1250 at SIA. Looks like profit at both shops!!!!

in reality you could have just bet 500 to win 550 each time at SIA and won 2500...all the positive expectation in the bet came from SIA anyway

That is with a breakeven line at Pinny and a bad line at SIA. Now think about what happens when pinny is at a slight advantage (e.g. -105 at Pinny, +115 at SIA for a 50% shot)

Pinny 525 to win 500
SIA 477 to win 548

23 in profit either way (but it likely ends up 49 wins at Pinny for -2275, 51 wins at SIA for +4575)

after 100 trials you win 2300

play the "bad line" only and you win 2400 at SIA. You make an extra 4% and only needed half the cash in play

Now you "won" 4575 at SIA, getting you that much closer to being booted. But your profit was only 2300. If you played them straight you would have an extra $100 in your pocket and 2000 less towards your SIA quota

You paid Pinny 100 (or $1 per game) to take on your risk. And the closer their line is to the true line (or even on the other side of it), the more you are paying them and the more profit you are giving up on the other "weak" side

in a game of small edges that is usually not the best thing to do.

 

[D2bets]

sure, but you would be winning MORE at the weak shops because you wouldn't be buying back you bets into negative expectation lines.

Who says the Pinnacle buybacks are negative expectation? I thought we had already agreed that they were not when you said "you will win at both shops, sure". If the Pinny plays are negative expectation then why are they bringing positive results.

 

[drunkguy]

Who says the Pinnacle buybacks are negative expectation? I thought we had already agreed that they were not when you said "you will win at both shops, sure". If the Pinny plays are negative expectation then why are they bringing positive results.

I don't agree that they will always be positive expectation. I am saying you will see money at both accounts if you have not gotten into the "long term" results yet. e.g. if Team A is 67% likely to win, the lines is -200. If that game is lined -205 PIn +220 SIA, you still are going to see that money in pinnacle 67% of the time regardless that the line was correct there. Variability can be a bitch

if you think they are positive expectation to buy back at Pin, that's your business I guess.

I think that with a 10 cent scalp, the chances of them both being positive expectation are pretty slim

 

[Fishhead]

Good thread.

:lolBIG:

 

[Waz]

Be sure you love doing this for a profit and you don't have better options to pursue. For a few it might make sense, but I suspect for the mass majority it won't. In any case don't approach this as "can it be done?", but instead "should it be done?"

Wildbill - Care to expand on this some? When does it "make sense" vs. not? Are you referring to simply the lifestyle, or the income?

 

[WildBill]

Both really. A wife and kids better be incredibly tolerant of you doing this. Being a professional sports gambler, whether as a handicapper or a scalper/edge player, generally requires at least 60 hours a week with more needed at times. Burnout is almost certain to happen at some point. Now take say 70 hours a week and figure out how much you make. Its almost like working 2 normal jobs, so even if you make what seems like good money, its not really on par with what many people can make in a normal job.

In the end most professional gamblers of all stripes just love the game too much to do anything else. I know many of them and they just ooze love for the game whenever you meet with them, almost to an annoying level. They take great pride in the half point they just got. If you asked them they might have to reveal it took a lot of effort to find it, but that is the edge lots of gamblers live for. Same goes for poker players, they often are talking about a hand they lost 2 months ago, to an annoying degree as well.

For these and many other reasons it isn't a decision to be taken lightly. Then again most who find themselves doing this for a living, it is something they fall into. They don't choose it as much as they morph into it and then never leave it.

 

[Fishhead]

Both really. A wife and kids better be incredibly tolerant of you doing this. Being a professional sports gambler, whether as a handicapper or a scalper/edge player, generally requires at least 60 hours a week with more needed at times. Burnout is almost certain to happen at some point. Now take say 70 hours a week and figure out how much you make. Its almost like working 2 normal jobs, so even if you make what seems like good money, its not really on par with what many people can make in a normal job.

In the end most professional gamblers of all stripes just love the game too much to do anything else. I know many of them and they just ooze love for the game whenever you meet with them, almost to an annoying level. They take great pride in the half point they just got. If you asked them they might have to reveal it took a lot of effort to find it, but that is the edge lots of gamblers live for. Same goes for poker players, they often are talking about a hand they lost 2 months ago, to an annoying degree as well.

For these and many other reasons it isn't a decision to be taken lightly. Then again most who find themselves doing this for a living, it is something they fall into. They don't choose it as much as they morph into it and then never leave it.

Hate to kiss your ass, but the excellence of your posts are outstanding and all so accurate.

-F-

 

[nimue77]

It is very possible that both sides of a middle (or scalp) have positive expectation. It is also possible that you have no idea which line might be the better one and just take both since it's an obvious positive expectation overall.

 

[Woody0]

That is with a breakeven line at Pinny and a bad line at SIA. Now think about what happens when pinny is at a slight advantage (e.g. -105 at Pinny, +115 at SIA for a 50% shot)

Pinny 525 to win 500
SIA 477 to win 548

23 in profit either way (but it likely ends up 49 wins at Pinny for -2275, 51 wins at SIA for +4575)

after 100 trials you win 2300

play the "bad line" only and you win 2400 at SIA. You make an extra 4% and only needed half the cash in play

Now you "won" 4575 at SIA, getting you that much closer to being booted. But your profit was only 2300. If you played them straight you would have an extra $100 in your pocket and 2000 less towards your SIA quota

You paid Pinny 100 (or $1 per game) to take on your risk. And the closer their line is to the true line (or even on the other side of it), the more you are paying them and the more profit you are giving up on the other "weak" side

in a game of small edges that is usually not the best thing to do.

That's fine in theory but the conclusion "play the "bad line" only and you win 2400 at SIA. You make an extra 4% and only needed half the cash in play" totally ignores variance which is worth paying the 4% to avoid.

 

[Fishhead]

It is very possible that both sides of a middle (or scalp) have positive expectation. It is also possible that you have no idea which line might be the better one and just take both since it's an obvious positive expectation overall.

Example just completed this morning taking NO leads......

IOWA -1.5 -110 2200-2000
INDIANA +2 +111 1990-2209

Resulting in three WINNING outcomes......

+10
+9
+2000

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Example just completed this morning taking NO leads......

IOWA -1.5 -110 2200-2000
INDIANA +2 +111 1990-2209

Resulting in three WINNING outcomes......

+10
+9
+2000

There are days when the scalps just jump off the screen and right into your lap, nice one FISH.

 

[drunkguy]

It is very possible that both sides of a middle (or scalp) have positive expectation. It is also possible that you have no idea which line might be the better one and just take both since it's an obvious positive expectation overall.

That is true, but I started this talking about why you shouldn't be playing scalps at weak books (in particular SIA, since they will boot you and you suck out all the value in the terrible lines by betting them back the other way)

It is 100% apparent with SIA which line is the "bad line"

 

[Fishhead]

There are days when the scalps just jump off the screen and right into your lap, nice one FISH.

Thank you sir

Game is up to -3 at some shops now.....wow!

 

[5teamparlay]

Good job i look here to find more in the future!!!

 

[Fishhead]

Any thing else you do if it goes higher, IMDIANA ML etc??

No, im through...............concentrating my efforts on the MANHATTEN/RIDER game.

 

[Fishhead]

A lot of people are making a good living with these Olympic games.......totally risk free.

Semi-large scalps are of abundance throughout the offshore world.

Shoot, even picked off a few myself goofing around. :drink:

 

[Fishhead]

Lots of overlays currently in the offshore world.

:money: :money: :money:

 

[ClubmanCoop]

Lots of overlays currently in the offshore world.

:money: :money: :money:

Mr Baseball.... :missingte

Could you plz share with the class what you found or are looking at???

What are your top 3?

TY

Coop

 

[Fishhead]

Mr Baseball.... :missingte

Could you plz share with the class what you found or are looking at???

What are your top 3?

TY

Coop

No way, even as nice a guy as I am, would I share my top 3 in this forum setting.

How bout something in the 15th-20th range...............SIA scalps/middles daily.

 

[ClubmanCoop]

No way, :monsters- even as nice a guy as I am, would I share my top 3 in this forum setting. TY for sharing old wiseman

How bout something in the 15th-20th range :missingte ...............SIA scalps/middles daily.

BOL

Coop