44-1 last three series

[Michelangelo]

Series 2

Thurs 8/27

Game 1s

Bal -102
Sea -155
LAA -200

 

[PokerFace]

That is correct 'Bout the Money.

My post was not directed at you but at the guy who put "guaranteed to be a loser" in boldface.

Yes, I am guaranteed to be a loser in the Atlanta series after tonight. The formula I clearly defined in my original post makes that clear with some simple math. I don't expect to win all series bets. But I do hope to make a profit on most Series groupings.

My explanation for accepting a loss in a series such as we have encountered here with Atlanta should make sense to you. I hope.

As I stated in a previous post I will be reviewing the wisdom of playing large favs in this chase approach. I've only discovered this concept recently. After tonight I will have a 60 game sampling. There is still a long way to go before I determine what the final "method" will look like exactly.

Have patience. I think we can succeed very profitably if the first 60 games are a fair indicator.

Congrats on Atlanta :toast:

 

[russwlms]

That is correct 'Bout the Money.



As I stated in a previous post I will be reviewing the wisdom of playing large favs in this chase approach. I've only discovered this concept recently. After tonight I will have a 60 game sampling. There is still a long way to go before I determine what the final "method" will look like exactly.



Have patience. I think we can succeed very profitably if the first 60 games are a fair indicator.

<><> thanks for the hard work im in!!

 

[Michelangelo]

Thank you Poker Face and Russwims.

Lot to catch up on here.

Start with the early game.

Fri 8/28

Series 2

Game 1

NYM +225 Misch

Be back with the results of Series 1 and additional games for tonight.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

boy do i hope u r rite with the mets game brudda man...u and fairwarning might be the only 2 other guys i have seen on the mets...hopefully that is a good thing....good luck

 

[Michelangelo]

Don't forget that this is a three game chase system cocktails. I don't need to be right today. But I sure would like to see the Mets win today at that nice price. If it helps any, first game dogs in the 44-1 study period were 8-11. All dogs were 17-15 including a couple bigger than today's generous price.

Good luck man.

 

[Michelangelo]

Series 1 Accounting

TBy +125 W Gm 1 (+125)
Bos -210 W Gm 1 (+100)
Cle -110 W Gm 1 (+100)
Bal +185 L Gm 1; +143 (200/286) L Gm 2; +145 400/580 W Gm 3 (net +280)
Det +120 W Gm 1 (+120)
Oak +108 L Gm 1; -103 (206/200) L Gm 2; -102 (408/400) L Gm 3 (net -714)
Phi -172 L Gm 1; -174 (348/200) W Gm 2 (net +28)
NYY -195 L Gm 1; -190 (380/200) W Gm 2 (net +05)
Atl -260 L Gm 1; -235 (470/400) L Gm 2; -260 (1040/400) W Gm 3 (net -330)
Fla -200 W Gm 1 (+100)
Cin +125 W Gm 1 (+125)
Cub -240 L Gm 1;* -330 (660/200) W Gm 2 (net -40)
Hou +156 L Gm 1; +135 (200/270) L Gm 2; +265 (400/1060) W Gm 3 (net +360)
LAD -114 L Gm 1; -136 (272/200) W Gm 2 (net +86)
SFo -115 W Gm 1 (+100)

* I made a decision to stop the Cub chase after Gm 1 at a net loss of -240 but for the accuracy of the study I recorded the results of the continued chase.

Cubs continued to chase outcome:
Net +1529
Net -1084
Net profit/loss (+445)

Cubs stopped after Gm 1:
Net +1529
Net -1284
Net profit/loss (+245)

Losing the Oakland chase sure hurt. I need to find a better way to deal with the Big Favs. Maybe I'll have something by Series 3. Lotsa work. All in all I'm happy.

More games for Series 2 coming.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

brian stokes can go take a long swim in lake michigan....

 

[Michelangelo]

The guy hadn't allowed two (or more) hits in his last sixteen outings. He didn't have it today and shoulda been pulled after the second hit and tying run. Surely after walking Baker. He shoulda never been in there to pitch to Soriano. That one's on the manager. Shame on him for not going and taking the ball from a guy who's been real steady for him all year but clearly didn't have it today. Tough one to lose.

Series 2

Game 2s
Bal +102** (200/204) (-102)
LAA -152* (304/200) (-200)
Sea -245* (490/200) (-155)

Game 1s
NYM +225* (already posted above)
Atl -119***
Det +114**
NYY -220**
LAD -189*
SDo +135***
Tor +220***
Pit +137**
Tex -115*
St L -178*
Hou +144***
Col +113*

The asterisks indicate subsets. I will track each asterisk subset separately when the accounting is done at the end of this Series.

Thanks and good luck.

 

[Michelangelo]

Series 2 running accounting (trying to cut down on the work at the end of each Series)

Banked:

(2) Bal +102 **
(2) LAA +48 *
(2) Sea +45 *
(1) Det +114 **
(1) NYY +100 **
(1) SDo +135 ***
(1) St L +100 *

 

[Michelangelo]

Series 2

Game 2s (Sat 8/29)

NYM +225* (200/450)
LAD -185* (370/200)
Pit +220** (200/440)
Atl +165*** (200/330)
Tor +150*** (200/300)
Tex -112* (224/200)
Hou +114*** (200/228)
Col -112* (224/200)

GL

 

[HacheMan]

GL today Michel

 

[nikeairx]

what is the record on game 2's?

 

[russwlms]

Series 2

Game 2s (Sat 8/29)

NYM +225* (200/450)
LAD -185* (370/200)
Pit +220** (200/440)
Atl +165*** (200/330)
Tor +150*** (200/300)
Tex -112* (224/200)
Hou +114*** (200/228)
Col -112* (224/200)

GL

Whats the plays today?

 

[Michelangelo]

Add to bank:

(2) LAD* +15
(2) Atl*** +230
(2) Tex* +85

 

[Michelangelo]

Series 2

Game 3s

Tor*** -130 (520/400)
Pit** +110 (400/440)
NYM* +250 (400/1000)
Col* +118 (400/472)
Hou*** +120 (400/480)

This is a work in progress guys. Be careful. I would hate to see anyone get hurt badly by this.

GL

 

[Michelangelo]

Series 2 accounting when I get home.

Series 3

Mon 8/31

Early game 1s:

Cin +/- (no line yet)
NYY -180

 

[Michelangelo]

Series 3 add Mon 8/31

Cincy line I owe -122

scratch NYY above

Game 1s

Bal +160
Fla -160
Min -105
SDo -153
Oak -144
LAD -190

Still owe accounting for Series 2. It's coming.

 

[Michelangelo]

Accounting I owe:

Series 1 // 14-1 +445
Series 2 // 11-4 -1270
Net 25-5 -825

Obviously I need to improve. I'm working on it.

 

[ComptrBob]

Accounting I owe:

Series 1 // 14-1 +445
Series 2 // 11-4 -1270
Net 25-5 -825

Obviously I need to improve. I'm working on it.

Good luck with the improvement.

By my account, the system is doing a bit better.

Here are the accounting mistakes I believe you have made so far (assuming your posted betting lines are correct):

Series 1:
Hou +760 not +360

Series 2:
LAA +0 not +48
Atl +211 not +230
LAD +11 not +15

I have:
Series 1: +845 (with the freeroll win on the Cubs)
Series 2: -1341