2nd half bet system (bowls)

[gman79]

Winner winner chicken dinner.

 

[Steiner69eR]

yes!!

 

[Brubaker]

if it ain't broke.....

Nice job!!!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Yep, we're definitely winning this one.

Thanks a lot to all the guys who have contributed in this thread. I had no idea something as straight forward as yardage in the first half would help win second half bets consistently. Can't wait to keep using this and making money this bowl season!

I ended up looking at every statistic and found correlations to who won the game. Yards is easily one of the most influential statistics, in addition to turnovers and rushing attempts/yards. It's a big statistic and Phil Steele always uses it in his magazines.

Ok, let me know if I track wrong. I don't really have "units" or whatever, all my bets are the same amount so I guess every play is 1 unit. So right now it's 1-0 +1 unit, correct? And if I get a pick wrong, I subtract 1.1 units?

Looking forward to UNC/WVU, FSU/UW and UM/Cal tomorrow. I'll post plays in this thread. Not going to change my "system" (don't know why I'm really calling it that), don't worry guys.

 

[toto]

Keep it up Hoosier and don't worry on how much you bet, I have been
betting since college many yrs. ago and can tell you that alot of the best
bettors do it just for some action and are way smarter than the many blowhards I have seen that wouldn't bet at least a nickel or dimes on every game just to be a bigshot....

 

[clutch]

Thanks for the info clutch!

I can't find ways to deposit money into The Greek! But you're right, they are always the first to put up the numbers from the sites I've seen. They had +4.5 and kept it consistent.

Sounds like a great system you have, should start posting picks here at the RX!

TOUCHDOWN FAU! This one is in the bag boys. 24-13.

Keep doing what you are doing and you WILL win.

Once you start building your BR, add a few more books.

You can get at least a half point to a full point difference almost every time since the books are adjusting on the run with limited time.

 

[jblonghorn]

Well done Letsgohoosiers!!! I'll certainly be watching this thread closely as we progress through bowl season. BOL to you and all of us tomorrow!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Week 12 info added - stats and system play

Alright, I added 51 games from week 12. Took about 2 hours again. This brought the overall record to 72-53-3.

Some interesting stats regarding yardage differential:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246pt;" width="326" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 101pt;" width="134"> <col style="width: 51pt;" width="68"> <col style="width: 47pt;" span="2" width="62"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 101pt;" width="134" height="20">DIFF OF 0-62</td> <td style="width: 51pt;" width="68" align="right">22</td> <td style="width: 47pt;" width="62" align="right">22</td> <td style="width: 47pt;" width="62" align="right">2</td><td valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">DIFF OF 63-166</td> <td align="right">37</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td>
</td><td valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">DIFF OF 167+</td> <td align="right">12</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td>
</td><td valign="top">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
This would mean play between 63-166 (74% win). What that means is don't play blowouts, and don't play close games.

And also minimum yardage

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246pt;" width="326" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 101pt;" width="134"> <col style="width: 51pt;" width="68"> <col style="width: 47pt;" span="2" width="62"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 101pt;" width="134" height="20">MIN YDS 0-74</td> <td style="width: 51pt;" width="68" align="right">9</td> <td style="width: 47pt;" width="62" align="right">10</td> <td style="width: 47pt;" width="62">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">MIN YDS 75-160</td> <td align="right">36</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">MIN YDS 160+</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">1</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
This would mean play between 75-160 on the team with the yardage edge (69%), as we did tonight with FAU! This avoids the games where one team is asleep for the first half, and where both teams are moving it with ease. Both games are the potential for high volatility - we want certainty!

I also tried using the spread as a factor, but didn't quite find a "range." Here's the numbers I got:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246pt;" width="326" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 101pt;" width="134"> <col style="width: 51pt;" width="68"> <col style="width: 47pt;" span="2" width="62"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 101pt;" width="134" height="20">10.5+ FAV</td> <td style="width: 51pt;" width="68" align="right">7</td> <td style="width: 47pt;" width="62" align="right">2</td> <td style="width: 47pt;" width="62">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">7-10 FAV</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">.5-6.5 FAVS</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="right">1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">NO FAV</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">.5-6.5 DOGS</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">7-10 DOG</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">10.5+ DOG</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
So play a dog that is .5-6.5 points (73%), as we did tonight with FAU!

Even better data that will give you a win almost assuredly!

Play on any team that fits the yardage differential criteria and the minumum yardage criteria. These teams are an astounding 24-2 (92%)!

All 3 factors (yardage differential, minimum yardage, less than one possession dog) and the system is a perfect 9-0 (100%)!

Favorites of 3.5+ who also fit miniminum yardage and yardage differential requirements are 11-0 (100%)!

Yard Diff and dogs: Dogs who fit in the 63-166 yardage range are 10-2 (83%).
Yard Diff and favs: Favorites of 6+ points who fit in the 63-166 yardage range are 15-2 (88%).
Min Yds and dogs: Dogs of 1-3 points who fit in the 75-160 range are 8-0 (100%).
Min Yds and favs: 7.5 pt+ Favs who fit in the 75-160 range are 6-1 (86%).

I'd go on, but to be honest it's probably getting confusing to you guys. I'll just post the plays here.

Let's get 'em this bowl season!

 

[thirdperson]

What website has current yardage information while game is being played?

 

[RDC-3]

nice work! I know that must have taken quite a while to figure out>>>much appreciated!!

 

[RazorGus]

great work!

I think I'm a bit confused on the Min ydg. Your chart shows 75-160 and you relate it to the FAU play. Didn't they have 208 (appx) last night at half?

Thanks for the explanation

 

[RazorGus]

bump up if anyone can answer my question in the above post. 2nd half WVU will be here in a couple hours......

 

[letsgohoosiers]

great work!

I think I'm a bit confused on the Min ydg. Your chart shows 75-160 and you relate it to the FAU play. Didn't they have 208 (appx) last night at half?

Thanks for the explanation

Morning RazorGus!

The minimum yardage stat is applicable for both teams. You want to find which team is moving the ball less and that's the min yardage team.

Now that I think of it, CMU was at 178. It wasn't applicable!

 

[Toby1]

Morning RazorGus!

The minimum yardage stat is applicable for both teams. You want to find which team is moving the ball less and that's the min yardage team.

Now that I think of it, CMU was at 178. It wasn't applicable!

Hoosiers

so you are saying in re: to minimum yardage stat is that you are fading the team with smaller yardage at the half right?

 

[kidman232]

im guessin this will be no play on wv/unc

 

[letsgohoosiers]

No, what I am trying to do with minimum yardage is keep games out of the system where teams are asleep in the first half, and could potentially figure it out in the 2nd half.

Do not play this game people. Yardage is even. The spread will probably be pick'em. There's no value here.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Unc 269-253.

Unc +3.

 

[ZJP6050]

Unc 269-253.

Unc +3.

where are you getting +3?? most i see atm is .5 for some reason

 

[Mr.Cover123]

where are you getting +3?? most i see atm is .5 for some reason

Bet Jamaica.

 

[FearTheRaven]

yeah I got them +3 as well