FWIW....
Last 2 seasons Cincinnati with Burrow, 16-4 ATS as a road dog.
Last 2 seasons Cincinnati with Burrow, 16-4 ATS as a road dog.
1 has been out for 2 weeks and they lost 1 in the first half last week and they were ok. Outside chance they get 1 back but if not I'm still confident in who they have as replacements. If they all were healthy i don't think this game would be close. Cincy matches up well with Buff.
I'm just throwing a few things out there here and there. I bet this game Monday when I posted the pick, strictly on a few very early bets at the open and nothing to do with handicapping the game as I did with my 2 Wild Card picks.
All the talk is about the Bengals banged up offensive line.
Last week - Buffalo vs Miami - Buffalo's Josh Allen was sacked 7 times. Buffalo's OL is average at best. On a different note Josh Allen had 2 interceptions & 3 fumbles (1 lost).
Last week - Buffalo vs Miami - Buffalo's Josh Allen was sacked 7 times. Buffalo's OL is average at best. On a different note Josh Allen had 2 interceptions & 3 fumbles (1 lost).
Both teams are unappealing.
GOLDEN Serbone rule in NFL is if a team is down 2 OL, stay away or fade. 3 out, load up against them.
I took Cincy anyway vs Ravens with their history last year with two ca ca O-Linemen on the right side. Mistake, Ravens won the line of scrimmage.
I was at a convention long ago, Dan Dierdorf spoke, explained the OL playbook was so many inches thick, explained pulling guards, double teaming, all that. Then said the DL playbook was a one page crayon drawing of a stick man with a football, and it read "get him".
If 3 are out for Cincy I have to go with the Bills, regular play, even though they are inherently flawed, allowed 31 to Miami wtf, and IMO there is a chance Allen is not 100%.
If 2 are out I will make a small move on Cincy with the points wtf.
If only 1 is out I will make an above regular, on Cincy, but less than BIG play.
Also hard to know if one starts if they will make it 4 quarters.
GL!
GOLDEN Serbone rule in NFL is if a team is down 2 OL, stay away or fade. 3 out, load up against them.
I took Cincy anyway vs Ravens with their history last year with two ca ca O-Linemen on the right side. Mistake, Ravens won the line of scrimmage.
I was at a convention long ago, Dan Dierdorf spoke, explained the OL playbook was so many inches thick, explained pulling guards, double teaming, all that. Then said the DL playbook was a one page crayon drawing of a stick man with a football, and it read "get him".
If 3 are out for Cincy I have to go with the Bills, regular play, even though they are inherently flawed, allowed 31 to Miami wtf, and IMO there is a chance Allen is not 100%.
If 2 are out I will make a small move on Cincy with the points wtf.
If only 1 is out I will make an above regular, on Cincy, but less than BIG play.
Also hard to know if one starts if they will make it 4 quarters.
GL!
They have played without 2 of them multiple weeks.
How impressive is that? You camp out? Wash cars for info?
I bet. Groupie!
They had a conservative offensive game plan vs a tough divisional rival and a team they played the week prior. They won the game. I don't need to talk anyone into it. Most disagreed with my plays in the Wild Card, esp Jax. ?
These are just my bets. To each their own.
Last edited:
You provide nothing but thanks for stopping by. You're a small guy that is not in my league, trust me. Go to bed Joe.
yeah you're definitely in a leauge of your own.
Not going back and forth with you any further, ever. Find someone else to troll thank you.
Since week 8, at the halfway point of the season...Cin 3-0 vs playoff teams...Buff 1-1 and their sole win was last week by 3 vs the Phins with a 3rd string QB. It's been mentioned the Bengals barely beat a Balt team with a backup QB and that's what Buff just did, by 3 points at home against a 3rd string QB. Cin last 2 years on the road as a dog 16-4 ATS. Josh Allen has been in a championship game in which the Biils lost. Burrow has been to the SB. Josh is most of the Bills offense and their offense is centric around him. A QB who leads the league in turnovers and the only negative regarding the Bengals is their injured OL. Cin +5/+5 1/2? I didn't say the Bengals would win the game but I would think long and hard about not taking the Bengals plus the points this week. The play is a winner and you can go to the window or click submit with confidence. I'll let the results speak for themselves. GL to everyone this weekend.
Last edited:
Thought about wagering AFC -3, +100 on the early SB line but don't think it's any more beneficial to bet it now or after the conference championship games. Reason is the only SB matchup that I think the line would be greater than -3 for the AFC is Buff -3 1/2 OR -4 vs Phi. All other possible matchups probably would be -3 or less. That's assuming JAX and the NYG don't get to the bowl. I think the odds makers know what they're doing lol.
I absolutely agree the linemaker knows what they are doing.Bills favored over Phil or SF would make me hesitate to why they want me taking the points and maybe the losing side.Books could give a rats ass about getting equal action if they can get lopsided action and money on the wrong side they will take it all day long, the players us will be wrong a lot more than the linemaker.If they want more action on NFC taking the points, they think the Bills are the better side and they would rather have you on the loser the NFC..AFC SB favorite woud really make me hesitate, I think SF and Philly are the better teams.I would be kinda nervous backing Purdy in the SB, but i can actually see his season ending against Dallas this weekend.
Funny you mentioned the SF/DALL game. I'll comment on something I found interesting on that game in a moment.
For anyone interested (this has nothing to do with my Cin wager) I found this pretty interesting regarding Red Zone TD % on offense and defense. The basics are as follows. Conference offensive red zone TD % rank + conference defensive red zone TD % rank differential. The premise is if you can't score touchdowns in the red zone or you can't stop a team from scoring touchdowns in the red zone the odds aren't in your favor to win a game.
Last week in the Wild Card Round the team with the largest red zone differential in all 6 games was +20 and it was in the DALL/TB matchup. The ranks are below. Dallas closed as a 2 1/2 point favorite and won by 17.
O - Offense
D - Defense
DALL O (1) D (5) = (6) +20 WON
TB O (13) D (13) = (26)
Also, there was only 1 team last week in the Wild Card round that was a underdog who had a better differential and it was in the NYG vs Minnesota game. The ranks are below. The NYG closed as a 2 1/2 point underdog and they won by 7.
NYG O (4) D (2) +10 WON
MINN O (5) D (11)
This week the Dallas Cowboys are the only team that fit both categories. They have the largest differential of all 8 divisional round teams AND they are an underdog. The ranks are below.
DALL O (1) D (5) +15
SF O (11) (10)
I haven't tracked this in any other playoff season but like I said I found it interesting. I'm always looking for possible edges such as this.
This would SUGGEST Dallas on the spread and money line if it holds accurate.
Last week in the Wild Card Round the team with the largest red zone differential in all 6 games was +20 and it was in the DALL/TB matchup. The ranks are below. Dallas closed as a 2 1/2 point favorite and won by 17.
O - Offense
D - Defense
DALL O (1) D (5) = (6) +20 WON
TB O (13) D (13) = (26)
Also, there was only 1 team last week in the Wild Card round that was a underdog who had a better differential and it was in the NYG vs Minnesota game. The ranks are below. The NYG closed as a 2 1/2 point underdog and they won by 7.
NYG O (4) D (2) +10 WON
MINN O (5) D (11)
This week the Dallas Cowboys are the only team that fit both categories. They have the largest differential of all 8 divisional round teams AND they are an underdog. The ranks are below.
DALL O (1) D (5) +15
SF O (11) (10)
I haven't tracked this in any other playoff season but like I said I found it interesting. I'm always looking for possible edges such as this.
This would SUGGEST Dallas on the spread and money line if it holds accurate.
Last edited:
If anyone would like the numbers for any other matchup this week and don't want to take the time to look up the data or don't know where to look for it let me know and I'll provide it for you.
