Interesting turn in the race now after the SAG result. Keaton appeared to be pulling away but now script has flipped. Odds for Redmayne likely to keep getting worse as the only awards ceremony left is the BAFTAS where Redmayne is almost a shoe in. Logically Redmayne does have the more showy obvious role which usually wins but personally I'm not interested in -150 or worse on backing him. He's still only in his early 30's and I think the "elitist" academy will offer more hope to Keaton than the broad voting group of SAG. Some suggestions Cooper may be in this as well.
Have a feeling might be some upsets this year but it may be wishful thinking. Don't think Birdman is over a 50% shot for best picture, listening to some of the more credible folks may actually be a big surprise for the top award.
Some long shots I think are live are;
Wild Tales for Foreign at 8-1 or better. Crowdpleaser of the bunch, could work in its favor or not. Stands out as the only fun non-serious film but maybe its lack of gravitas will hurt it. Whatever the case odds appear to be off, I give it about a 25-35% chance of winning.
Whiplash for Adapted Screenplay. Appears to be a straight battle with this and Imitation Game, Theory and Sniper probably not enough support here. Talk is Whiplash is well liked in the Academy and this is usually the place to reward a film as a consolation prize of sorts. Doesn't hurt that the writer Chazelle is also the Director of the movie so even though he's not nominated for Director if they liked either (writing or directing) they can award him here. Honestly think its got about a 50% chance of winning this, 3-1 good price.
Animated Feature doesn't get a lot of talk, seems like its just assumed Big Hero or the Dragon movie will win. Just looking at reviews the Princess Kaguya and Song of the Sea are the standouts but guessing the mainstream appeal of the former two movies make everyone feel its unlikely to go another way. Consensus is probably correct as its unlikely most voters have even bothered watching all the nominees but just in case they have...
Actor. Still thinking Keaton, especially at 3-1 odds and a small bet on Cooper at 30-1. Redmayne's playing a famous handicapped does seem hard to ignore but Keaton in a more popular movie and well known figure in the community should make the voting close. Believe the odds have stretched out a little further then they should have. People close to this situation still maintain Cooper can actually win as well.
Some long shots I think are live are;
Wild Tales for Foreign at 8-1 or better. Crowdpleaser of the bunch, could work in its favor or not. Stands out as the only fun non-serious film but maybe its lack of gravitas will hurt it. Whatever the case odds appear to be off, I give it about a 25-35% chance of winning.
Whiplash for Adapted Screenplay. Appears to be a straight battle with this and Imitation Game, Theory and Sniper probably not enough support here. Talk is Whiplash is well liked in the Academy and this is usually the place to reward a film as a consolation prize of sorts. Doesn't hurt that the writer Chazelle is also the Director of the movie so even though he's not nominated for Director if they liked either (writing or directing) they can award him here. Honestly think its got about a 50% chance of winning this, 3-1 good price.
Animated Feature doesn't get a lot of talk, seems like its just assumed Big Hero or the Dragon movie will win. Just looking at reviews the Princess Kaguya and Song of the Sea are the standouts but guessing the mainstream appeal of the former two movies make everyone feel its unlikely to go another way. Consensus is probably correct as its unlikely most voters have even bothered watching all the nominees but just in case they have...
Actor. Still thinking Keaton, especially at 3-1 odds and a small bet on Cooper at 30-1. Redmayne's playing a famous handicapped does seem hard to ignore but Keaton in a more popular movie and well known figure in the community should make the voting close. Believe the odds have stretched out a little further then they should have. People close to this situation still maintain Cooper can actually win as well.
Best Movie.....Birdman
Best Actor......Eddie Redmayne
Best Actress....Julianne Moore
Supporting Actor.....JK Simmons
Supporting Actress.....Patricia Arquette
Best Director.....Alejandro Inarritu
I wish i could parlay these...No can do though....Not allowed....LOL
Best Actor......Eddie Redmayne
Best Actress....Julianne Moore
Supporting Actor.....JK Simmons
Supporting Actress.....Patricia Arquette
Best Director.....Alejandro Inarritu
I wish i could parlay these...No can do though....Not allowed....LOL
ok here are some final picks.
Best Pic - most commentators claim its close across the board, suggesting perhaps not just Birdman/Boyhood can win. But seeing some of the anonymous ballots that get revealed (granted very small sample size) and hearing others I'm not too convinced a true upset is on the cards. Birdman appears to have the serious edge considering it has almost won every guild (industry) award. Betting wise mainly uninterested. Very small bet on Whiplash 100-1. Maybe Sniper at 40/50-1 worth a small bet as well although considering they use a preferential ballot for Best Pic seems unlikely.
Actor - Keaton 3-1+ looks to have some value. Think its close between him and Redmayne.
O.Screenplay - Small bet on Nightcrawler at 50-1+. Only nomination for the film and with a few movies spreading the vote maybe the base of support of this movie is big enough to cause a major surprise.
A.Screenplay - Maybe even more crowded than O.Screenplay. Winner may not need 30% of the vote, Whiplash at about 3-1 and Sniper at 20-1+ are decent bets.
Doc Feature - Citizenfour probably has this locked due to its subject matter but Virunga spent a ton on ads and is more emotionally I suppose, 3-1 small value.
Foreign Film - Wild Tales at 8-1 good value, it can actually win. Timbuktu at 30-1+ small bet/cover as well.
Makeup - Guardians visible blockbuster and said the academy generally liked it. Certainly has the most makeup which might bold well. 3-1+ value.
Visual FX - Interstellar for me too big a fav. Won BAFTA which moved the odds (recent history shows big correlation to Oscars) but the face of that movie is British and the FX team that worked on the movie was British so maybe that explains that win. Apes probably should win and I think it actually may. 3/4-1 is good value, might want to cover it with Guardians as well.
Editing - Sniper at 15-1 or so might be worth a bet. Sniper is said to have a good support but besides Sound Editing/maybe Mixing it needs to upset (at least on paper) to get another Oscar. Possible it sneaks in here or A.Screenplay.
Best Pic - most commentators claim its close across the board, suggesting perhaps not just Birdman/Boyhood can win. But seeing some of the anonymous ballots that get revealed (granted very small sample size) and hearing others I'm not too convinced a true upset is on the cards. Birdman appears to have the serious edge considering it has almost won every guild (industry) award. Betting wise mainly uninterested. Very small bet on Whiplash 100-1. Maybe Sniper at 40/50-1 worth a small bet as well although considering they use a preferential ballot for Best Pic seems unlikely.
Actor - Keaton 3-1+ looks to have some value. Think its close between him and Redmayne.
O.Screenplay - Small bet on Nightcrawler at 50-1+. Only nomination for the film and with a few movies spreading the vote maybe the base of support of this movie is big enough to cause a major surprise.
A.Screenplay - Maybe even more crowded than O.Screenplay. Winner may not need 30% of the vote, Whiplash at about 3-1 and Sniper at 20-1+ are decent bets.
Doc Feature - Citizenfour probably has this locked due to its subject matter but Virunga spent a ton on ads and is more emotionally I suppose, 3-1 small value.
Foreign Film - Wild Tales at 8-1 good value, it can actually win. Timbuktu at 30-1+ small bet/cover as well.
Makeup - Guardians visible blockbuster and said the academy generally liked it. Certainly has the most makeup which might bold well. 3-1+ value.
Visual FX - Interstellar for me too big a fav. Won BAFTA which moved the odds (recent history shows big correlation to Oscars) but the face of that movie is British and the FX team that worked on the movie was British so maybe that explains that win. Apes probably should win and I think it actually may. 3/4-1 is good value, might want to cover it with Guardians as well.
Editing - Sniper at 15-1 or so might be worth a bet. Sniper is said to have a good support but besides Sound Editing/maybe Mixing it needs to upset (at least on paper) to get another Oscar. Possible it sneaks in here or A.Screenplay.
