2014 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[Andrick]

Strange trend going on with me this year that I just now noticed;


- I prefer Hoppertunity over California Chrome from Santa Anita

- I prefer Medal Count over Dance With Fate from Keenland

- I prefer Ride On Curlin over Danza from Oaklawn

- I prefer Intense Holiday over Vicar's In Trouble from Fairgrounds

- and while I doubt I'll be playing him, I would also prefer Commanding Curve over Chitu from Sunland

Wicked Strong would be the only runner I would prefer over those he beat in his last prep, but even then, I'm not terribly high on Wicked Strong either.

Last year I think I used 6 horses on my tickets in the Derby and I believe 3 or 4 of them had won their final prep race. The year(s) before that it was probably something very similar. I at least played some who had won their last prep. I've never been against the prep winners as much as I am this year from what I can remember. Reversed results from last preps to Derby are very common in the Derby as we all know. But it looks like I'll be hoping it's more common than usual as we sit now with a few days to go. I may have to give Danza some more thought even though it's hard enough having one Pletcher horse on my tickets, nevermind a second.

 

[tread]

Commanding Curve did not race at Sunland. Good lord, I feel so sorry for anyone reading this thread. I come back every year to laugh at the monopoly money wagers and how incredibly ill-advised they are, but this year is taking the cake.

 

[joeyp]

nice to see ya back tread good luck with your plays

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Commanding Curve did not race at Sunland. Good lord, I feel so sorry for anyone reading this thread. I come back every year to laugh at the monopoly money wagers and how incredibly ill-advised they are, but this year is taking the cake.

I see your self confidence hasn't increased, you keep insulting people.........don't tread in this thread if you don't like reading it w/o contributing something positive.

In fact, go create your own thread on how to be a hater......it's more your style.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Commanding Curve is an interesting horse. He doesn't come home fast, his last 1/4 is slower than most other horses in the race but he likes the Churchill track & may be passing horses down the stretch for a piece of the pie.

 

[elevenblack301]

no surprises in my pics here for the derby.....the 2 I was on last year are still my keys.....1 candy boy......2. wicked strong.....my other contenders ill be using in tris. caly chrome.....danza.....hoppertunity.........but my top 2 will be prices and will make nice tris if on top of others.....gl

kbrod,

I like 4 out of those 5..................still trying to get a handle on Danza................

Thanks for the early pics...................good luck and be well....

 

[elevenblack301]

Wicked Strong & Samraat won't hit the board.......Danza is a much better horse than Wicked Strong.

Wicked already has shown he can't run outside of NY.

TCP,

Be careful on Wicked Strong, when he ran at GP he may not have liked that surface at all, and he may flourish on the Churchill surface....................just commenting

 

[elevenblack301]

The only thing I like about Candy Boy is that Stevens rides. My reservations with Wildcat Red are based on his work over the track. He is an early running horse who ran a very slow time at CD the other day, far slower than any other workout he has recorded. Plus if he does get to the front I think he gets collared in turn and gets used up by the time he hits stretch.

Honzie,

Yep, Stevens is the difference maker on this horse............think he was up to far to the front chasing CC in the S Anita.............. and don’t think Gary will make this mistake again, he has too much experience in this race, and of course knows it well............... a plus for Candy Boy

 

[elevenblack301]

Strange trend going on with me this year that I just now noticed;


- I prefer Hoppertunity over California Chrome from Santa Anita

- I prefer Medal Count over Dance With Fate from Keenland

- I prefer Ride On Curlin over Danza from Oaklawn

- I prefer Intense Holiday over Vicar's In Trouble from Fairgrounds

- and while I doubt I'll be playing him, I would also prefer Commanding Curve over Chitu from Sunland

Wicked Strong would be the only runner I would prefer over those he beat in his last prep, but even then, I'm not terribly high on Wicked Strong either.

Last year I think I used 6 horses on my tickets in the Derby and I believe 3 or 4 of them had won their final prep race. The year(s) before that it was probably something very similar. I at least played some who had won their last prep. I've never been against the prep winners as much as I am this year from what I can remember. Reversed results from last preps to Derby are very common in the Derby as we all know. But it looks like I'll be hoping it's more common than usual as we sit now with a few days to go. I may have to give Danza some more thought even though it's hard enough having one Pletcher horse on my tickets, nevermind a second.

Andrick,

Thanks for the early “ likes”.................looks like you and I are on the same page.............especially with your top 4 prefers...................... don’t know if that’s good or bad............ best of luck to both of us............

 

[elevenblack301]

Heres my 5 early picks
wildcat red
vicars in trouble
samraat
california chrome
tapiture

joeyp,

Thanks for the early plays, much appreciated......................and good to see that you are “ OK “ with saying who you like before the post positions are drawn...........I really liked Samraat and Tapiture early on, but now have seem to lost that feeling for them, will need to look at them again...............


Will be posting my plays probably Friday.......................all of the ‘monopoly plays’ that my friends and I choose to wager..................it makes me laugh every year how a number of individuals continue to question and ‘hate’ so many comments in this thread........... wonder what their life outside of the ‘internet world’ is...........?

As always, looking forward to your final plays...................and again thanks for all that you do through the seasons, as I always look at your threads when I am off to my local track.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I really think its between 3 horses, Chrome, Medal & Dance

 

[Ilovetobet]

Anyone have a list of the horse in the field? And what is the draw for starting spots.

 

[GoodfellaLV]

Anyone have a list of the horse in the field? And what is the draw for starting spots.

The draw is today @ 5 ET, here is the live stream link.

http://stream.nbcsports.com/liveextra/

You can also watch from your phone, if you have the NBC Sports App..

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Here's what Mike Welsch had to say about Chromes gallop this morning.........


CALIFORNIA CHROME

The Derby favorite visited the paddock then galloped 1 1/2 miles over a wet track and certainly wasn't the prettiest mover I've seen here this week.

Figured he might loosen up a little once he got under way but really looked about the same all the way around, wasn't really reaching out very smoothly.

This is the first time I've seen him gallop so have no frame of reference but Jay Privman said he's certainly looked better back west. Perhaps the "off" track had something to do with it. Will be very interested to see if he loosens up and strides out better on a fast strip tomorrow morning.

 

[Ilovetobet]

The draw is today @ 5 ET, here is the live stream link.

http://stream.nbcsports.com/liveextra/

You can also watch from your phone, if you have the NBC Sports App..

Awesome TY

 

[Andrick]

Commanding Curve did not race at Sunland. Good lord, I feel so sorry for anyone reading this thread. I come back every year to laugh at the monopoly money wagers and how incredibly ill-advised they are, but this year is taking the cake.

Yeah, you're right. My bad. I tried to remember all the prep results from the top without having the info right in front of me, so that will teach me.

 

[goin4broke]

i guess we have to wait til saturday to get the DRF? and where is a good place to find it? thanks

 

[elevenblack301]

i guess we have to wait til saturday to get the DRF? and where is a good place to find it? thanks

I will try, or I'm sure one of the good fellows in this thread will , to post a place to download the Derby PP's either tonight or tomorrow.

 

[joeyp]

i guess we have to wait til saturday to get the DRF? and where is a good place to find it? thanks

go to daily racing form.com and get the pps thursday

 

[goin4broke]

go to daily racing form.com and get the pps thursday

whats pps? sorry for the dumb questions just don't bet horses that much