2014 Kempom System

[INTHEEND]

This seems to have gotten a bit confusing. I read through the thread where this originated. The rules were simple
Bet agst any team:
That is Kenpom #165 or worse
That opens as a 6.5 point favorite or more
That isa t home and always has lined gms.
That was it.

I looked at last years results which I have as 27-10. I did notice that line moves made no dif. Only one gm was affected out of all of those. It went from a push on the open to a loss on the close. I used Don Best lines for open and close. Kenpom numbers for home and away made no difference to the outcome. I had the start date last year to be after Feb 23. 2 things did make a difference. Between Feb 14 and the 22nd record was hm 18 and vis 10. The other thing was when the dif between KP HM - KP VIS<-100 record was hm 5 vis 7 so not much value.

 

[MGMan]

This seems to have gotten a bit confusing. I read through the thread where this originated. The rules were simple
Bet agst any team:
That is Kenpom #165 or worse
That opens as a 6.5 point favorite or more
That isa t home and always has lined gms.
That was it.

I looked at last years results which I have as 27-10. I did notice that line moves made no dif. Only one gm was affected out of all of those. It went from a push on the open to a loss on the close. I used Don Best lines for open and close. Kenpom numbers for home and away made no difference to the outcome. I had the start date last year to be after Feb 23. 2 things did make a difference. Between Feb 14 and the 22nd record was hm 18 and vis 10. The other thing was when the dif between KP HM - KP VIS<-100 record was hm 5 vis 7 so not much value.

Thanks for clarifying this. I didn't know what the hell was going on.

 

[TheWolf]

why was ill chic+9.5 removed as a play?

 

[doyboy408]

why was ill chic+9.5 removed as a play?

this falls under the #2 rule: "2. System should use a sliding scale and begin around Kenpom 140, understand that for teams ranked by Kenpom between #140-200, lines should be DD before it qualifies as a play. For teams #200-Southern Utah, lines of 7.5 or higher to constitute a play (of course you are still welcome to use your own brain and consider games that just miss the criteria as games that you should possibly look at more closely and consider playing)."
ill-chi is ranked 287 & youngstown st is ranked 185...the line isn't double digit to qualify (it's at +9 right now). i'm still trying to grasp the system also, someone please correct me if i'm wrong...

 

[CaptainMorgan]

Couple of points by KineProfessor.

1. If you miss the best line, but the line still makes it a "play" feel free to not play it as you have missed some value - if you take a worse line, except the consequences.

2. Here are the games that the system perimeters also suggest we look at as they are close: UNCW, Ark Lil Rock, Miami OH, NE, Marshall, South Alabama, Loyola Chi, Citadel, Sac St and Edwardsville and yes I am on numerous of these as well.

3. Also games like Omaha (getting too many points based on their body of work) and Northern Illnois (I'm 5-1-1 betting on them since Jan 22nd) deserve your consideration as well.

KP plays today:

3-0 ytd


Central Michigan +9
Samford +10.5
eastern Illinois +12
Montana st +9

Thanks Mamba

 

[INTHEEND]

this falls under the #2 rule: "2. System should use a sliding scale and begin around Kenpom 140, understand that for teams ranked by Kenpom between #140-200, lines should be DD before it qualifies as a play. For teams #200-Southern Utah, lines of 7.5 or higher to constitute a play (of course you are still welcome to use your own brain and consider games that just miss the criteria as games that you should possibly look at more closely and consider playing)."
ill-chi is ranked 287 & youngstown st is ranked 185...the line isn't double digit to qualify (it's at +9 right now). i'm still trying to grasp the system also, someone please correct me if i'm wrong...

In the original write up I did not see this rule listed. What I did see was as I posted above.

 

[tlee4lizard]

For the fun of it i am going to.play the system. Good luck Mamba. Thanks for sharing .i hope

 

[IndianaJones2013]

Good stuff! I tailed on the late 3popcorn-eatinggif

 

[ToothedTeddy]

did the lights go out at Memorial Gym? game has been stuck at 83-74 with 14 seconds left for like 10 minutes.

 

[MONDOGECKO]

83-75, final, winna, woohooo.

 

[CaptainMorgan]

1-2-1 tonight boys!

Will get them next time

 

[BLAK_MAMBA]

ytd
4-2-1

 

[fadetheaction]

Like your system. have been around the game for a while and was unaware of it. Thanks.

 

[candylicker]

From other site....


ok guys....technically not a play but im calling it one and it will go onto record for system:
Hofstra +10.5
gl ryno

 

[BLAK_MAMBA]

From other site....


ok guys....technically not a play but im calling it one and it will go onto record for system:
Hofstra +10.5
gl ryno

Yup this is the play. Thanks.

 

[CaptainMorgan]

So Mamba, it's technically not a play or is it?

 

[BLAK_MAMBA]

Yes cap its an official play

Hofstra +10.5

 

[LoCalDallasGuy]

Gluck Blak Mamba.

 

[CaptainMorgan]

FUCK!!

twice by the hook In two nights

 

[jasonc69]

Yep. Bad luck right there.