2014 Bowl Stats and Information

[Acebb]

Notes on the bowl games to date:

· Teams with the schedule advantage (awful angle this year) are now 7-7 SU/ 4-10 ATS. The next schedule advantage teams to play are Pitt, Tennessee and UCLA today.

· Bowl teams with interim coaches teams with interim coaches go to 11-12 ATS over the past 3 years with Wisconsin winning. Pitt is the last bowl team with an interim coach.

· 32 bowl games complete and the line has only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska)

· Power 5 conference bowl records: SEC finishes 5-5 SU/ATS. The ACC finished 4-6 SU & 5-5 ATS. The Pac 12 is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS and the Big 10 is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS. The Big 12 is 1-4 SU/ATS.

· Bowl underdogs are 17-14 SU and 20-11 ATS (no grade on Rice as a PK )

 

[Acebb]

Correction: Both Pitt & Houston will have interim coaches today. David Gibbs will serve as the interim head coach for Houston (the Cougars fired head coach Tony Levine on Dec 8[SUP]th[/SUP]) Joe Rudolph will serve as the interim coach for Pitt.

I’m not too sure how often this happens…

 

[Acebb]

Hopefully Pitt fires the interim coach!!! What a collapse.

Yet again, the line does not matter in a bowl game. Only 3 games out of 33, incredible. And, bowl underdogs go to 21-11 ATS.

 

[Acebb]

ALAMO BOWL
UCLA (9-3) vs. KANSAS STATE (9-3)
January 2, 2015 • 6:45 pm • ESPN • Alamodome • San Antonio,TX

Kansas State is 7-10 all time in bowls and the Bruins have a record of 15-17-1 in bowl games.

The Bruins are led by QB Brett Hundley (70.4%, 21 TDs, only 5 INTs. and 8 TDR). UCLA also features the Pac 12’s leading rusher, Paul Perkins, with 1,381 yards averaging 6.0 ypc. Defensively LB Eric Kendricks, one of the greatest defensive players in UCLA history. The 2014 Butkus Award winner averaged close to 12 tackles per game had 8.5 TFL, 2 sacks and 3 interceptions. Note, The Bruins played one of the most difficult schedules in the country and went 6-3 against bowl teams.

Kansas State features quarterback Jake Waters who completed 66.2% of his passes for 3,163 yards and 20 touchdowns with only six interceptions. Waters’ most talented target is All-American Tyler Lockett with his 93 catches. Note, at times, the Kansas State rushing attack disappeared this season. Defensively, the Wildcats ranked 26th in the country in points allowed (21.8 ppg). However, KSU gave up 553 yards to TCU and 583 yards to Baylor so while they have a solid defense, they can be had.

Snyder 3-7 ATS in his last 10 meetings with the Pac-12/10, and he has been a weak ATS performer in bowl games (2-8 ATS L10; The Wildcats are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games). UCLA holds an edge on offense and this will be the final game for UCLA QB Brett Hundley and I think the Bruins have more playmakers and can do more offensively to send Hundley out with a win here.

Play: UCLA (-105)

 

[Acebb]

Notes on the bowl games to date:

· Teams with the schedule advantage (awful angle this year) are now 10-8 SU/ 7-11 ATS. The next schedule advantage team to play is Florida. This is the last team to play with the schedule advantage.

· 36 bowl games in the books and the line has only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska)

· Big conference records: SEC is 6-5 SU/ATS. The Big 12 finished 2-5 SU/ATS. The ACC finished 4-7 SU & 5-6 ATS. The Pac 12 is 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS and the Big 10 is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS

· Bowl underdogs are 20-15 SU and 23-12 ATS (65%) (no grade on Rice as a PK )

 

[Acebb]

That UCLA game last night turned a little more dramatic than I had hoped but they got the win on the big run from Perkins. Credit to KSU for not quitting and taking advantage of what is clearly and undisciplined and dumb team.

After that game I think I'm done on bowl bets for the year. I don't have any interest in these last 2 games. I'll look into the Ohio State game but am unlikely to play it.

Bowl picks recap:

Memphis -1½ (-110)
Rutgers +3½ (-108)
SOUTH CAROLINA +3½ (-110)
Mississippi +4 (-108)
Michigan State +3 (-108)
UCLA (-105)

5-1 for 83% and a winning bowl season. Should have picked Boise the day I took Ole Miss and I wouldn't have a loss. Also, to maximize profit all the wagers should have been money lines.

 

[Acebb]

Just some notes on the bowls after yesterday's game:

· Bowl teams with interim coaches go to 12-12 ATS over the past 3 years with Florida winning. No real angle here.

· Teams with the schedule advantage (awful angle this year) are now 11-8 SU/ 8-11 ATS with Florida winning SU & ATS yesterday. They were last team to play with the schedule advantage and these teams closed on a 4-0 SU/ATS run. The teams with the schedule advantage are 32-19 SU and 27-24 ATS in the last 2 bowl seasons.

· 37 bowl games complete and the line has only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska)

· Bowl underdogs are 20-16 SU and 23-13 ATS (no grade on Rice as a PK)

 

[RDTrains]

Well done!

 

[Acebb]

Well done!

Thanks RDTrains. Interesting bowl season with so many dogs having good outcomes. I will post some trends on the championship game.

 

[Acebb]

Some notes on the bowls so far:

· Power 5 Conference bowl records: SEC finished 7-5 SU/ATS. Note that the SEC East went 5-0 SU/ATS & SEC West (every team went to a bowl!) went 2-5 SU/ATS. The Big 12 finished 2-5 SU/ATS. The ACC finished 4-7 SU & 5-6 ATS. Entering Monday's Championship game: The Pac 12 is 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS and the Big 10 is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS

· 38 bowl games complete and the line has only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska). That means over the past 2 bowl seasons the line has mattered in 7 games out of 73.

· Typical under-performer MAC Bowl teams go 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS this year.

· Bowl underdogs this season are 20-17 SU and 23-14 ATS (no grade on Rice as a PK)

 

[Acebb]

Notes for tonight's game.


· In the last 16 national championship games the line has mattered in 1 game (last year)
· The favorite has covered 5 of the last 7 national championship games
· Exactly 8 overs and 8 unders in CFB Championship Game history. Tonight's game has the highest total ever.

Year Winner (spread) Loser Score Total O/U
2014 Auburn (+10.5) Florida State 34-31 68 UNDER
2013 Alabama (-9.5) Notre Dame 42-14 40.5 OVER
2012 Alabama (-2.5) LSU 21-0 41 UNDER
2011 Auburn (+1) Oregon 22-19 73 UNDER
2010 Alabama (-3.5) Texas 37-21 44.5 OVER
2009 Florida (-5.5) Oklahoma 24-14 69 UNDER
2008 LSU (-4) Ohio State 38-24 46 OVER
2007 Florida (+7) Ohio State 41-14 47 OVER
2006 Texas (+7) USC 41-38 69 OVER
2005 USC (-3) Oklahoma 55-19 54 OVER
2004 LSU (+6) Oklahoma 21-14 47 UNDER
2003 Ohio State (+12) Miami 31-24 48 OVER
2002 Miami (-8.5) Nebraska 37-14 54 UNDER
2001 Oklahoma (+11.5) Florida State 13-2 56 UNDER
2000 Florida State (-6) Virginia Tech 46-29 49 OVER
1999 Tennessee (+5.5) Florida State 23-16 41.5 UNDER

 

[Acebb]

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
OREGON (13-1) vs OHIO STATE (13-1)
January 12, 2015 • 8:30 pm • ESPN • AT&T Stadium • Arlington,TX

High flying. Since losing to Arizona, the Ducks are averaging 49.2 ppg, and since losing to Virginia Tech, the Bucks are averaging 47.9 ppg

Mariota is now at 39/3 TD/INT on the year and since their only loss of the year to Arizona, the Ducks have won 9 straight (9-0 ATS) while scoring at least 42 points in every one of those games. Oregon averages 47.2 ppg, ranking second only to Baylor’s 48.2 ppg, nationally.

Urban is 34-9 ATS with a more than a week to prepare (including openers.) 4-0 ATS in that role this season.

To me, the coaching advantage OSU has is much greater than the QB advantage Oregon has. Urban is a once in a generation coach, he has one of the best win % of any coach in the last 50 years. In their 12 starts since their Week Two loss to Virginia Tech, the Buckeyes have out-gained their opponents by an average of 203 yards. Jones is 30-of-52 for 500 yds & 4/1 in his 2 starts, averaging 16.7 yards per completion.

That said, OSU’s defense allowed 536 yards and 37 points to Michigan State, and 407 yards and 35 points to Alabama. With Jones only making his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] start I can’t take the dog (funny things tend to happen in these games; see Winston’s performance in the Rose Bowl) and I think it is crazy to lay points against Urban in this spot. No play for me. Good luck in whatever you choose.

:toast:

 

[varkeyboy]

What's your take on tonight's total, Acebb? Thanks and good luck tonight.

 

[Acebb]

What's your take on tonight's total, Acebb? Thanks and good luck tonight.

Ohio State: 12-2 Over/Under this year

Oregon: 6-7 Over/Under this year

There have been 7 bowl games with high totals (65 or more) this bowl season: 6 overs; 1 Under (1 push)

Hard pressed to say anything but over, but I am not someone who bets totals regularly.

Good luck

 

[RDTrains]

OSU with zero totals of 74 or higher. Actual games that went Over 74 6-8.
Oregon went 0-3 Under with totals 74 or more.

 

[Acebb]

Superb performance by Ohio State and Meyer is an incredible coach. OSU was the play and congrats to those who took them and Buckeye fans.

Wrapping it up with some notes:

· 39 bowl games complete and the line only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska). That means over the past 2 bowl seasons the line came in to play only 7 times in 74 games.

· Big Power 5 Conference bowl records: SEC finished 7-5 SU/ATS. Note that the SEC East went 5-0 SU/ATS & SEC West (every team went to a bowl!) went 2-5 SU/ATS. The Big 12 finished 2-5 SU/ATS. The ACC finished 4-7 SU & 5-6 ATS. The Pac 12 finished 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS and the Big 10 finished 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS

· Bowl underdogs finished 21-17 SU and 24-14 ATS

Too bad we have to wait so long for more college football...

 

[vitterd]

That UCLA game last night turned a little more dramatic than I had hoped but they got the win on the big run from Perkins. Credit to KSU for not quitting and taking advantage of what is clearly and undisciplined and dumb team.

After that game I think I'm done on bowl bets for the year. I don't have any interest in these last 2 games. I'll look into the Ohio State game but am unlikely to play it.

Bowl picks recap:

Memphis -1½ (-110)
Rutgers +3½ (-108)
SOUTH CAROLINA +3½ (-110)
Mississippi +4 (-108)
Michigan State +3 (-108)
UCLA (-105)

5-1 for 83% and a winning bowl season. Should have picked Boise the day I took Ole Miss and I wouldn't have a loss. Also, to maximize profit all the wagers should have been money lines.

lol. Ok Acebb. Those "should have picked games" are tough losses.

 

[Hamilbet]

Doin this again this year?