2014 Bowl Stats and Information

[Acebb]

Bowl tidbits:

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL
LOUISIANA TECH (8-5) vs ILLINOIS (6-6)
December 26, 2014 • 1:00 pm • ESPN • Cotton Bowl • Dallas,TX

First bowl for Illini and Bulldogs Head Coaches with their current teams. The Bulldog's last bowl win came in 2008 when they defeated Northern Illinois in the Independence Bowl. Illinois defeated Baylor in the 2010 Texas Bowl and UCLA in the 2011 Fight Hunger Bowl.

Illinois got here with wins at home vs Penn St and on the road at North Western for their 1st bowl in 3 seasons. Offensively, Illinois has one of the top passing offenses in the Big Ten, ranking third in the conference in passing yards per game (243.2) and completion percentage (61.2 percent) and fifth in passing efficiency. Reilly O'Toole (won last 2 games) finished the season completing 58.7% of his passes for 1,049 yards with 9 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 12 games. Illinois averages 26.6 points per game

The LA Tech offense averages 403.8 yards per game and 37.5 points per game this season. Tech QB Cody Sokol threw for 3,189 yards with 29 touchdowns and 13 picks this season. He was named the C-USA's Newcomer of the Year after transferring in from Iowa.

On the defensive side of the ball, Louisiana Tech is the national leader in points off of turnovers. With 14 points off of turnovers in the Marshall game, the Bulldogs have scored 164 points off turnovers in 13 games this season.

The Bulldogs were one of the best teams in the nation ATS going 10-3, but lost 2 of their last 3 SU. And, they are playing without 5 starters who are academically ineligible including their top 2 linebackers and top 2 offensive linemen Trey Carter and Mitchell Bell. A non-Power 5-conference team laying points to the team with the schedule advantage. I really want to take ILL here but probably will pass only because they have such a shaky defense. Will see if the line moves to 7.

 

[Acebb]

QUICK LANE BOWL
NORTH CAROLINA (6-6) vs RUTGERS (7-5)
December 26, 2014 • 4:30 pm • ESPN • Ford Field • Detroit, MI

Both teams have been bowl regulars lately; this is the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] bowl contest in the last 7 years for North Carolina and 9th in 10 years for the Knights.

North Carolina, finished in third in the ACC's Coastal Division, went 6-6 overall this season and 4-4 in conference play. North Carolina averaged 34.3 point per game, and are led by second-team All-ACC quarterback Marquise Williams. Williams has had a solid year throwing for 2,870 yards (62.7%) with a 20-9 TD/INT ratio, and he also gained a team-best 737 yards rushing.
The Tar Heels fired defensive coordinator Vic Koenning after the regular season as the unit allowed 38.9 points per game and yielded 495.7 yards per game! Lowlights included allowing East Carolina to score 70 points and a 35-7 season ending loss to NC State.

The Scarlet Knight won two of their last three games and is led by Senior QB Nova who has thrown for 2,667 yards with a 20-12 TD/INT ratio. In their finale, Rutgers completed their largest comeback win ever, overcoming a 35-10 deficit in the 3rd, at Maryland, winning 41-38. Nova threw for 347 yards and 4 touchdowns with no INTs.

Defensively, UNC surrendered 44 ppg and 540 ypg against non-conference opponents. The teams that gave Rutgers the most trouble were big fronts rushing the ball. That isn’t UNC (Heels rank just 92[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the country in rushing output) and Rutgers won a couple of shootouts this season over Washington State & Maryland this year and beat Navy. UNC gave up the most TD’s (62) of any bowl team and have the last (#128) time of possession for any team in the nation so I’m taking the points.

Play: Rutgers +3½ (-108)


We'll see if I can get to 2-0, passing on ILL but will watch with interest.

 

[Acebb]

Glad I didn't play Illinois.

Nice game by Rutgers today. UNC's offense was completely flat in their last game against NC State and it seemed to carry over to today's game. Nice to get an easy win. Picks so far:

Memphis -1½ (-110)
Rutgers +3½ (-108)

2-0.

Back tomorrow to see if I can dig out another win.

Good luck to those on the night game.

 

[bobbyjones2]

nice work my man

 

[Acebb]

nice work my man

Thanks. Lots of games coming up, good luck to you!

 

[Acebb]

Notes on the bowl games so far:

- 13 bowl games and the line has only mattered 1 time (Central Mich) so far.

-- With ILL losing SU/ATS and NC State winning SU/ATS, Teams with the schedule advantage are now 3-2 SU/ 2-3 ATS. VIRGINIA TECH and ARIZONA ST both playing today have the schedule advantage in their games

--Teams coming off exactly two losses coming into their bowl games are 18-31 ATS. Penn State today is the next bowl team to play that is coming off exactly 2 losses.

--Unranked teams are 39-26 ATS vs ranked teams over the last 65 bowl games with such a matchup. Duke (+7½) vs. No. 15 Arizona State in the Sun Bowl falls under this scenario today.

-- If you enjoy betting against the public, boy do you have your chance today with Nebraska, I can't find too many people who like Nebraska today. Vegas has their line at 7 and they are sticking to it. Note: bowl teams with interim coaches are 9-12 ATS over the past 3 seasons. The Huskers will play this game under the direction of interim coach Barney Cotton.

 

[Acebb]

INDEPENDENCE BOWL
MIAMI OF FLORIDA (6-6) vs SOUTH CAROLINA (6-6)
December 27, 2014 • 3:30 pm • ABC • Independence Stadium • Shreveport, LA

Miami comes into this bowl with a 3-game losing streak. The Gamecocks lost 3 of their last 5.

The Gamecocks averaged 33.3 ppg this year and did so on an impressive 450.8 yards of total offense. South Carolina’s Dylan Thompson completed nearly 60 percent of his passes, for 3,280 yards and 24 TDs. Defensively, the Gamecocks struggled allowing 31.2 ppg and 433.6 yards of total offense.

Miami’s offense featured Duke Johnson running for 1,520 yards and 10 TDs, on an impressive 7.0 yards per carry. Johnson also caught 33 balls out of the backfield with an additional three TDs through the air. Freshman Brad Kaaya completed 58.6% of his passes, for 2,962 yards and 25 TDs. Note, Miami’s Mackey Award runner-up TE Walford (676 yards; 15.4 ypc) will be out for this game.

While Miami’s defense has been stingy against the pass, they did allow 24.3 ppg on the year and they allowed 41 to Nebraska and 30 to FSU. Additionally, the Miami D allowed a combined 421 yards rushing the last two weeks of the year to UVA & Pitt.

Al Golden is s only 8-10 SU his last 18 games, giving up 30 or more points 11 times. And, the Hurricanes have lost 9of their last 17 lined games by double digits, including 4 in which they were favored. Finally, Miami has lost 4 straight bowl games (and 1-5 SU/ATS last 6 bowl games with their only bowl win by 1pt while South Carolina has won 3 straight bowls and they beat 4 bowl teams this year. Spurrier is 3-1 ATS as a dog this year and SC has scored 33 points or more 8 times this season. One final thought, there is some pressure on Golden here and if this game is close toward the end and perhaps Golden & his team will get tight and make some dumb decisions.

Better coach + SR QB=Taking the points.

Play: SOUTH CAROLINA +3½ (-110)

 

[Acebb]

Correction: VIRGINIA TECH, ARIZONA ST and USC Trojans playing today have the schedule advantage (3-2 SU/ 2-3 ATS) in their games.

Don't like anything else other than South Carolina.

I've never seen so much lopsidedness with USC & AZ State. If they both cover Vegas is going to take it on the chin.

Good luck.

 

[Acebb]

Notes on the bowl games:

· Teams with the schedule advantage are now 6-2 SU/ 3-5 ATS. Given how lopsided the betting was on USC & AZ State, I’m not at all surprised neither covered ATS. The next schedule advantage team to play is Oklahoma on Monday. Note: the entire world is on OU.

· With Penn State winning, Teams coming off exactly two losses coming into their bowl games are 19-31 ATS. The next team up playing with exactly 2 losses is Texas A&M on Monday.

· With Duke getting the ATS win yesterday, unranked teams are 40-26 ATS vs ranked teams over the last 66 bowl games with such a matchup. Oklahoma fits that scenario tomorrow.

· 18 bowl games in the books and the line has only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska)

 

[Acebb]

The Miami/South Carolina game was closer than I expected. Miami's QB was not that effective in the 2nd half and for a period of time he wasn't allowed to throw the ball. Al Golden isn't a very good coach, IMO.

Happy with how my bowl picks have gone thus far:

Memphis -1½ (-110)
Rutgers +3½ (-108)
SOUTH CAROLINA +3½ (-110)

3-0 to start.

I'm definitely not taking anything in Monday's games. I am looking to make 3 or 4 more plays between Tuesday and New Year's Day.

 

[Acebb]

Notes on the bowl games thus far:

· Teams with the schedule advantage are now 6-3 SU/ 3-6 ATS. The next schedule advantage teams to play are Ole Miss and Arizona on Wednesday 12/31.

· With Texas A&M winning, teams coming off exactly two losses coming into their bowl games are 20-31 ATS (but 2-1 SU/ATS this year). The next team up playing with exactly 2 losses is Iowa on Friday.

· With OU getting the ATS loss yesterday, unranked teams are 40-27 ATS vs ranked teams over the last 67 bowl games with such a matchup. Notre Dame (+7½) vs. No. 22 LSU in the Music City Bowl today is the next such scenario.

· 21 bowl games in the books and the line has only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska)

· The SEC has not lost a bowl game (3-0 SU/ATS; 2 dogs outright) and the Big 12 has not won a bowl game (0-3 ATS). The ACC is 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU).

· Bowl underdogs are 11-9 SU and 14-6 (70%) ATS (no grade on Rice as a PK )

 

[Acebb]

Note:

Coming into the bowl season the SEC (46-34 ATS) had the best ROI of conferences and the Big 12 (30-41 ATS) had a negative ROI. Of course the MAC had the largest negative ROI (11-26 ATS).

CONFERENCE	ATS RECORD	UNITS WON	ROI
SEC	46-34	+10.90	13.6%
Sun Belt	23-18	+3.78	19.7%
Pac-12	31-27	+2.73	4.7%
American Athletic	3-2	+0.87	17.4%
Mountain West	23-21	+0.78	1.8%
Independent	10-9	+0.45	2.4%
Conference USA	26-25	-0.70	-1.4%
ACC	37-36	-1.36	-1.9%
WAC	13-15	-3.09	-11.1%
BIg Ten	32-35	-4.78	-7.1%
Big 12	30-41	-12.59	-17.7%
MAC	11-26	-15.51	-41.9%

 

[Acebb]

Notes on the bowl games to date:

· With Notre Dame getting the ATS win yesterday, unranked teams are 41-27 ATS vs ranked teams over the last 68 bowl games with such a matchup. This went 2-2 ATS this season, there are no more games in this scenario.

· 24 bowl games in the books and the line has only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska)

· The SEC has lost 1 bowl game (4-1 SU/ATS; 2 dogs outright) and the Big 12 has not won a bowl game (0-3 ATS). The ACC is 4-4 ATS (3-5 SU). The Pac 12 is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS and the Big 10 is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS

· Bowl underdogs are 12-11 SU and 15-8 ATS (no grade on Rice as a PK )

 

[Acebb]

PEACH BOWL
TCU (11-1) vs MISSISSIPPI (9-3)
December 31, 2014 • 12:30 pm • ESPN • Georgia Dome • Atlanta, GA

For TCU Patterson will be in his 9th bowl in the past 10 years (6-2 SU/2-5-1 ATS) while the Rebs have won & covered 11 of their last 12 bowl games, dating back to the 1992 Liberty (12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in bowl games since 1986) and all 4 bowl appearances since 2008.

TCU had a fantastic season offensively led by Trevone Boykin (3,714 yards on 60.5 % completions; 332.8 passing ypg & 30 TDs) for a dominant 46.8 ppg. The high octane Frogs offense also averaged 209.3 rushing ypg this season. The Horned Frogs enter this game allowing just 20.3 ppg to opponents, and they limited Iowa State to three points, Texas to 10 points and Kansas State to 20 points in late season games.

The Rebels boast one of the more physical defenses in the country, allowing only 13.8 ppg, only 3.4 ypc, and intercepting 19 passes, and they ended the year ranked #1 in scoring defense. Remember, in their final game the Rebels held Mississippi State to 10 pts when the Bulldogs had averaged 33.8 ppg in conference before the egg bowl (Ole Miss held Alabama and Mississippi State to 3 offensive TD’s combined in those 2 games). Offensively, The Rebels averaged 30.4 ppg under the leadership of quarterback Bo Wallace, who threw for 3,085 yards and 22 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, passing for 257.1 ypg.

TCU’s Patterson is 0-5 ATS his last 5 bowls (and 4-8 ATS all time in bowl games) while Ole Miss is 6-0 SU/ATS in their last 6 bowl games and underdogs have won 11 of the last 16 Peach Bowls outright. Playing in the nation’s strongest division, the Rebels led the nation in scoring defense and are getting points. Have to take the team with the schedule advantage as a dog. Got this at heritage, so:

Play: Mississippi +4 (-108)

 

[Acebb]

Well, the Bad Bo Wallace showed up and TCU looks great. Couldn't have been more wrong on this game, but would rather lose this way than by a late TD.

Picks recap:

Memphis -1½ (-110)
Rutgers +3½ (-108)
SOUTH CAROLINA +3½ (-110)
Mississippi +4 (-108)

3-1 on bowl plays.

Back tomorrow with hopefully better results. Have a safe and Happy New Year's Eve.
arty:

 

[Acebb]

Notes on the bowl games to date:

· Teams with the schedule advantage are now 6-5 SU/ 3-8 ATS. The next schedule advantage teams to play are Auburn and Oregon today.

· Bowl teams with interim coaches are 10-12 ATS over the past 3 years. Wisconsin & Pitt are the two bowl teams with interim coaches.

· 27 bowl games in the books and the line has only mattered in 3 of them (C. Michigan, Duke, Nebraska)

· Bowl records for the Power 5 conferences: SEC is 4-3 SU/ATS; 2 dogs outright. The Big 12 is 1-3 SU/ATS. The ACC is 4-5 SU/ 5-4 ATS. The Pac 12 is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS and the Big 10 is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS

· Bowl underdogs are 14-12 SU and 17-9 ATS (65%) (no grade on Rice as a PK )

 

[RDTrains]

Based on closing numbers:

Bowl Dogs of +6' or < = 14-2 ATS.
Bowl Favs of 7 or > = 6-4 ATS.

Rice (P) not included.

 

[Acebb]

Thanks for that RD Trains. The small favs have gotten demolished. Unfortunately I took 1 of the losers!

 

[Acebb]

COTTON BOWL
BAYLOR (11-1) vs MICHIGAN STATE (10-2)
January 1, 2015 • 12:30 pm • ESPN • AT&T Stadium • Arlington, TX

Briles has now taken the Bears to 5 straight bowls (2-2 SU/ATS) but is just 2-5 SU and ATS lifetime in bowl games. MSU’s Dantonio has now taken his team to bowls in each of his 8 years (3-4 SU/4-3 ATS) with the Spartans including 6 New Years Day Bowls.

When it comes to defense the Spartans have few peers, ranking 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in pass efficiency, 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in run, 12[SUP]th[/SUP] in scoring, and 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in total D. On the offensive side of the ball, the Spartans set school single-season records for points (517), total offense (5,958 yards), offensive touchdowns (64), rushing touchdowns (40) and made point-after attempts (66). MSU also led the nation in time of possession and turnover margin. Connor Cook had a solid year in the Big Ten with 241.7 ypg (9.0 yards per attempt) and 22 touchdowns.

Baylor’s Bryce Petty led the No. 1 offense in the country, one that averaged 58.8 points and 581.3 yards per game. The senior ranked eighth in the country with 300 passing ypg and produced an impressive 26-to-6 touchdown-to-interception-ratio. The Bears' defense ranked first in the Big 12 against the run, allowing 107.7 ypg and was able to force 24 turnovers.

Dantonio has pulled the outright upset in each of his last 3 bowl appearances; Briles isn’t a particularly good bowl coach and Baylor’s OC Philip Montgomery left to coach Tulsa. The Bears allowed 619 passing yards in this stadium to Texas Tech on 11/29 and Baylor’s offense was a little less potent on the road this year. MSU is #1 in the country on the road this year at +180 ypg and MSU has a 19-2-1 SU record all-time against teams currently in the Big 12.

Play: Michigan State +3 (-108)

^I'm hoping I don't get burned by a great offense as I did yesterday.

 

[Acebb]

Wow, I guess a little luck now & then is nice. I didn't think MSU's Cook could bring that team back but Baylor got a little complacent and Sparty got a little luck. I'll take it.
After that nail biter I'm sitting out tonight's games. One note though: Bowl underdogs are now 16-13 SU and 19-10 ATS.

Picks recap:

Memphis -1½ (-110)
Rutgers +3½ (-108)
SOUTH CAROLINA +3½ (-110)
Mississippi +4 (-108)
Michigan State +3 (-108)

4-1 on bowl plays so far. Back tomorrow.