2010 mlb capping & betting #102 - daily key info plus q&a

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Does anyone hava any info about establishing a -1 run line. I have seen the formula but in 2 different versions and neither makes complete sense. It does make some sense when the -1.5 run line is positive but when a huge favorite as in Minn yesterday there seems to be something missing.

If anyone can show what a -1 run line is for say teams -180 and more it would be a piece of cake. Per what I read Pinny had a -1 run line but not very accessible because of the US trade embargo for gambling.

I'll shoot you an email with the excel formulas that I use.

PC
 

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In the pdws:

1 In col. BN we are looking for umps who were at 3B yesterday, correct?

2. In col. BH, I see P2, P4, and P5s as over plays and M1 and M3s as unders.
Comments please.
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CTP

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I shoot higher than 58% and looks like P5 is leaving the scene. Even 59% is low for me otherwise you are in the ballpark no pun intended.
 

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They did not do so hot yesterday. 2 big favorites and a dog went down in smoke. They were 2-3 but one would have lost 3.1 units unless you played the run line.

What are you referring to here?


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In the pdws:

1 In col. BN we are looking for umps who were at 3B yesterday, correct?

2. In col. BH, I see P2, P4, and P5s as over plays and M1 and M3s as unders.
Comments please.
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yes those where the positions they were at yesterday. so u need to look at the ones at 1st or 2nd as those will be the ones you can bet today for 1st or 2nd games of a series

you have your p's and m's backwards

m means that the home and away so far this year they have avg more runs than the OL ov/un number. and the p means they are less than the o/u number (should have used a L but didnt want it to get confused with won and lost. must remember the M as MO MO MO

but it it real high or low eg like the tb one i mentioned the other day. they had an OL of 6.5 very low for an american league game. and the pitcher era home and away were .56 almost 6 runs lower than the OL number. but no way they they are going to continue at the rate so it will go up same holds for a 40 era it will go down
 

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we've been running numbers based on the zes 8.66. still a work in progress. with everything in place it only takes a few min to generate the results vs the hours that were claimed. right now it just generates so few projections. might need to fine tune more. since the beginning of may (that's when the 30 day std dev and mean come into play that) there only been 6 or so. we'll see what happens
 

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Nothing looking overly juicy on this Friday.

bos against the line move to 9- looks juicy to me. but still need to get ump info. weather ok temp wise but there is a strong wind to left which is not much effect unless the ball is hit very very high to left
 

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adding reynolds to waldo list. wont come into play today or tomorrow though but might be on sunday depending on other factors. god of odd can put a number too low based on ump as most bet over anyway
 

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went against the move to 9.5 in dodger game, looked good for 8.5 innings....did mama mention walk off grannys too?
 

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ahh so Reynolds will be the lone over umpire on the list?
 

CTP

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Jackson I was referring to consecutive days at home or away. Was going along pretty well until yesterday. Alot of this stuff is just trends. One needs to find them early and jump off before a lot of damage.

Also Jackson one does not need to be a genious at pivots there are other ways to get there. B4 pivots I took the master and copied it to a new sheet. That way it reduces the file size to something manageable. Once there if something you want to see how it is doing like the P's and M's you referred to. Just sort the entire master by that col. You can link many cols together in one sort. Say we take that instance. Get the master and sort by cols CF which is designator for O/U ERA Cat and AO which is whether and over or an under. Now you have all of the ERA cats sorted in alpha order along with that order by whether they were an over or under. Now once that is done you can hi-lite in color those rows that show promise. Now activate the ones you just colored and sort that by say date. Now at a glance you can see if AO is showing a continued success rate or starting to 50-50. If it going say against a bunch of overs and starting to show unders you sure don't want to be on the side that showed promise.

This is what I do day in and day out. Once I find something I like I generally write a formula that would signal those plays. Then again once you find something of promise go back to the master of Pops and see if there are some pivots that contain similar data and go from there. Say you found a group of those Era cat's that looked promising. Sort that section by say league maybe the national does well and American stinks. I believe over unders should show more promise in the american just becaue the pitcher does not bat. Anything that shows in a pivot should show same results by sorting by those same means. Just a very simple way to look at the same thing in a different means.

Hope I helped.

If you take this exercise and sort by those consecutive days I am sure you will find what I am talking about. Most likely a trend but hope not.

More tedious but a way around pivots.
 

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A mu;ch easier way is to follow Bragg or Enfuego. I match Bragg's plays quite often. I am beginning to think he uses Pops data base. Just kidding but a true story.
 

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Last 3 days I lacked time so I checked Bragg's picks but before blindly tailing I was checking PDWS to see if I'd go along with his games. And most of the time I agreed. I skipped few games that ended good but I don't care.

As beginner I can only advise fellow beginners to track slowly. Check Braggs picks, then use PDWS and try to figure out why his pick would be good.
PDWS are great tool for ML bets, when you get comfortable with that, then you'll slowly want to explore Master. Still you don't have to put money. Just track as it costs you nothing but your time. If you aren't willing to invest even time well you can always pay touts hehe

I haven't yet found website with so good info as PDWS, you have starting pitchers side by side with relevant stats, even difference is calculated for you. What more do you need?

Good luck everyone!:toast:
 

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Last 3 days I lacked time so I checked Bragg's picks but before blindly tailing I was checking PDWS to see if I'd go along with his games. And most of the time I agreed. I skipped few games that ended good but I don't care.

As beginner I can only advise fellow beginners to track slowly. Check Braggs picks, then use PDWS and try to figure out why his pick would be good.
PDWS are great tool for ML bets, when you get comfortable with that, then you'll slowly want to explore Master. Still you don't have to put money. Just track as it costs you nothing but your time. If you aren't willing to invest even time well you can always pay touts hehe

I haven't yet found website with so good info as PDWS, you have starting pitchers side by side with relevant stats, even difference is calculated for you. What more do you need?

Good luck everyone!:toast:

30 years ago i would do everything that's in the pdws by hand. would spend 10 hours of manual work to find just the games i wanted to look at in more detail. now everything on the pdws is done in less than a min, so i have much more time to spend on the other thing that are way more valuable
 

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Well if people can't appreciate what is offered to them that is their problem.

I hope that one day I'll be able to focus on scalping. But my current goal is to earn 500-600$ for withdrawal per month which is monthly wage for most jobs here if one even appears. In only few days I almost tripled my initial bankroll by using PDWS so it shows what you can gain with spending little time. And I still have a LOT to learn about baseball.
 

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Well if people can't appreciate what is offered to them that is their problem.

I hope that one day I'll be able to focus on scalping. But my current goal is to earn 500-600$ for withdrawal per month which is monthly wage for most jobs here if one even appears. In only few days I almost tripled my initial bankroll by using PDWS so it shows what you can gain with spending little time. And I still have a LOT to learn about baseball.

i learn something every day. your never too old to learn anything if you give it a try. better than sitting on your ass just reading bs in various threads or watching talking heads throw around a bunch of mo bs
 

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