Here we go for the second half of the season. I have no idea if the All Star break will effect the system. I tend to ignore these type of things. Let's see what happens.
Thursday starts
Philadelphia @ Florida -1.5 +170 GM 1
NY Mets @ Atlanta -1.5 +110 GM 1
Overall series 23-4 +19.56 units
=======================================
How to play the 2 Game RL Chaser System
1). The home team is "chased" for a winning wager in the first two games of a series.
Important! We only play GM 2 if GM 1 is a losing wager.
2). Wagering is simple. Determine your unit size, keep in mind that losing chases will cost you approximately -3 units or a little more.
3). 1 unit is wagered on GM 1 and if necessary, 2 units are wagered on GM 2.
If the GM 1 wager wins, the chase stops and we bank the profit for that match up.
4). If the GM 2 wager loses we stop the chase losing approximately -3 units on that chase. :>(
In a nutshell, we are picking the best performing home teams vs the worst performing away teams and expecting the home team to win one of it's first two wagers, which will give us a profit by using the best combination of Run Line, or ML odds as described above with a one unit and two unit progression.
===================================
FAQ
1). How do you pick which teams to wager on?
Performance and efficiency stats are used to filter and pick the match ups that will (in theory) provide the best opportunity for a Run Line win. (Favorite wins by 2 runs or more). Never be afraid to use the Run Line, these are specifically picked to win on the Run Line (in theory of course). However it makes sense to use dog or small fave ML's when available, just because it's a better chance for a winning wager.
2). Why use Run Lines? Why not just play them all on the ML?
Because this is a chase system that progresses from 1 to 2 unit wagers, using Run line odds helps us keep our risk and bankroll management reasonable. Capping our losses as near to 3 units as possible is one of our goals to avoid killing our bankroll with a bad run of losses.
In other words we need the dog odds whenever possible by using Run Lines or the rare ML dog, or very small favorites on the ML <-115.
3). I'm confused...I thought this was a Run Line system but I see you are using ML odds for some games. Why?
In theory, most of our wagers will be on heavy favorites because we are filtering for the best at home vs the worst away match ups. However, because of pitching match ups we will sometimes have dog odds or very small favorite odds available on the ML. We are not locked into just using Run Lines...we want the best chance to win our wager...AND have reasonable or plus odds.
If we can get + dog ML odds or small favorite odds <-115 ML on a team that we think is over performing vs it's competition we can just use the ML.
No need to lessen our chances with the Run Line in that situation. We'll take the ML when we can get it...but it should be rare, because we are filtering for the very best favorites at home.
4). Does it make a difference if it's a 2 game, 3 game or 4 game series?
No.
5). Ok...Ok...I think I get it. What is the easiest way to play this system?
1. Determine your unit size...multiply your unit x 3 to make sure you can stomach a chase loss that large. Adjust to what feels comfortable for you and your bankroll.
2. Look for the matchups posted here...keep in mind there are Thur/Friday and Mon /Tues starts to different 3 and 4 game series.
3. Play Gm 1 for 1 unit. If it wins, bank it and play the others or wait for the next series matchups.
4. If the GM 1 wager loses, play GM 2 of the series for 2 units.
5. Play ML odds up to -115...if it's higher than that switch to the Run Line. (Most cases you will be on the Run Line). 6. If Gm 2 loses, stop the chase for that match up and take your loss.
7. Repeat as necessary.
6). Does that cover it?
There are a few situations I didn't cover that will eventually come up.
If we cap ML's at -115 we should also cap RL's at -115. The Yankees and late season favorites will become an issue. We'll have to figure that out as we go. It might be wise to just eat the GM1 losses when GM2 odds are just too high... RL > -115.
Just because we had early success, don't "POUND" it now. It might fall apart, who knows? :think2:
But it is a lot of fun to play, with quite a bit of action and excitement with large RL dogs and GM 2 double wagers that spice it up for reasonable risk.
Keep your units reasonable and I think we might really have a fun system here.
Thursday starts
Philadelphia @ Florida -1.5 +170 GM 1
NY Mets @ Atlanta -1.5 +110 GM 1
Overall series 23-4 +19.56 units
=======================================
How to play the 2 Game RL Chaser System
1). The home team is "chased" for a winning wager in the first two games of a series.
Important! We only play GM 2 if GM 1 is a losing wager.
2). Wagering is simple. Determine your unit size, keep in mind that losing chases will cost you approximately -3 units or a little more.
3). 1 unit is wagered on GM 1 and if necessary, 2 units are wagered on GM 2.
If the GM 1 wager wins, the chase stops and we bank the profit for that match up.
4). If the GM 2 wager loses we stop the chase losing approximately -3 units on that chase. :>(
In a nutshell, we are picking the best performing home teams vs the worst performing away teams and expecting the home team to win one of it's first two wagers, which will give us a profit by using the best combination of Run Line, or ML odds as described above with a one unit and two unit progression.
===================================
FAQ
1). How do you pick which teams to wager on?
Performance and efficiency stats are used to filter and pick the match ups that will (in theory) provide the best opportunity for a Run Line win. (Favorite wins by 2 runs or more). Never be afraid to use the Run Line, these are specifically picked to win on the Run Line (in theory of course). However it makes sense to use dog or small fave ML's when available, just because it's a better chance for a winning wager.
2). Why use Run Lines? Why not just play them all on the ML?
Because this is a chase system that progresses from 1 to 2 unit wagers, using Run line odds helps us keep our risk and bankroll management reasonable. Capping our losses as near to 3 units as possible is one of our goals to avoid killing our bankroll with a bad run of losses.
In other words we need the dog odds whenever possible by using Run Lines or the rare ML dog, or very small favorites on the ML <-115.
3). I'm confused...I thought this was a Run Line system but I see you are using ML odds for some games. Why?
In theory, most of our wagers will be on heavy favorites because we are filtering for the best at home vs the worst away match ups. However, because of pitching match ups we will sometimes have dog odds or very small favorite odds available on the ML. We are not locked into just using Run Lines...we want the best chance to win our wager...AND have reasonable or plus odds.
If we can get + dog ML odds or small favorite odds <-115 ML on a team that we think is over performing vs it's competition we can just use the ML.
No need to lessen our chances with the Run Line in that situation. We'll take the ML when we can get it...but it should be rare, because we are filtering for the very best favorites at home.
4). Does it make a difference if it's a 2 game, 3 game or 4 game series?
No.
5). Ok...Ok...I think I get it. What is the easiest way to play this system?
1. Determine your unit size...multiply your unit x 3 to make sure you can stomach a chase loss that large. Adjust to what feels comfortable for you and your bankroll.
2. Look for the matchups posted here...keep in mind there are Thur/Friday and Mon /Tues starts to different 3 and 4 game series.
3. Play Gm 1 for 1 unit. If it wins, bank it and play the others or wait for the next series matchups.
4. If the GM 1 wager loses, play GM 2 of the series for 2 units.
5. Play ML odds up to -115...if it's higher than that switch to the Run Line. (Most cases you will be on the Run Line). 6. If Gm 2 loses, stop the chase for that match up and take your loss.
7. Repeat as necessary.
6). Does that cover it?
There are a few situations I didn't cover that will eventually come up.
If we cap ML's at -115 we should also cap RL's at -115. The Yankees and late season favorites will become an issue. We'll have to figure that out as we go. It might be wise to just eat the GM1 losses when GM2 odds are just too high... RL > -115.
Just because we had early success, don't "POUND" it now. It might fall apart, who knows? :think2:
But it is a lot of fun to play, with quite a bit of action and excitement with large RL dogs and GM 2 double wagers that spice it up for reasonable risk.
Keep your units reasonable and I think we might really have a fun system here.
If we can get a better line later in the day (<115) would you advise to just go ahead and take the ML? Or rather, play as posted? For instance, at MB the Marlins are -112 now?
This happened last week too and I took the ML, to mitigate risk and we won, only I won 1 unit vs the 1.7 unit win you had w/ the RL wager.
Of course, it's a judgment call; just wanted to see if you had a strong opinion either way.
Thanks for all you do.
This happened last week too and I took the ML, to mitigate risk and we won, only I won 1 unit vs the 1.7 unit win you had w/ the RL wager.
Of course, it's a judgment call; just wanted to see if you had a strong opinion either way.
Thanks for all you do.
All I can say is that I have to draw the line somewhere...and then post the picks.
This is what I do:
Most days, late the night before or early the next day I use Betjam odds at the time of my post for the official picks and record keeping.
Anything that changes or is different for people that follow along is your judgment call after that, but 95% of the time it won't be enough of a difference to matter.
For most situations I would do what I do...as close as you can. That is what the record is based on...and I am trying to make the record as good as I can.
So why not just follow me and don't worry about the pennies so much...and eliminate all the second guessing?
Make it easy...do what I do...even if the odds adjust slightly.
If there is a pitching change or injury...that is different of course.
This is what I do:
Most days, late the night before or early the next day I use Betjam odds at the time of my post for the official picks and record keeping.
Anything that changes or is different for people that follow along is your judgment call after that, but 95% of the time it won't be enough of a difference to matter.
For most situations I would do what I do...as close as you can. That is what the record is based on...and I am trying to make the record as good as I can.
So why not just follow me and don't worry about the pennies so much...and eliminate all the second guessing?
Make it easy...do what I do...even if the odds adjust slightly.
If there is a pitching change or injury...that is different of course.
I would say it's worked very well so far...why would I change anything? :think2:
Overall series 23-4 +19.56 units
FAQ
1). How do you pick which teams to wager on?
Performance and efficiency stats are used to filter and pick the match ups that will (in theory) provide the best opportunity for a Run Line win. (Favorite wins by 2 runs or more)
-115 is the limit on any wager...nothing over that.
And we don't do any +1.5 Run lines...only -1.5 Run lines.
So yes...we should always take the dog (plus odds ML) when it is available.
