Keep it up Tate
It's not ACTUALLY 14-0, it's technically 14-0. It's actually 14-7, but every time he loses he doubles up.
Tate is definitely on to something with the formula for QUITFACTOR%, and it's good everyone has constructive criticism so we can all help tweak the rest.
The system definitely has some flaws in terms of money management, but it can be tweaked. The other way to clean this syetm up would be to ignore betting games with High Quit Factors if they are overuled by certain other trends (for example a team coming to play a home game after 4 consec. road games).
Keep up the good work Tate.
It's not ACTUALLY 14-0, it's technically 14-0. It's actually 14-7, but every time he loses he doubles up.
Tate is definitely on to something with the formula for QUITFACTOR%, and it's good everyone has constructive criticism so we can all help tweak the rest.
The system definitely has some flaws in terms of money management, but it can be tweaked. The other way to clean this syetm up would be to ignore betting games with High Quit Factors if they are overuled by certain other trends (for example a team coming to play a home game after 4 consec. road games).
Keep up the good work Tate.
Hey Guys,,, thanks for your responses,,, and by no means am I frustrated with anyones COMMENTS AT ALLLLLL
I am Going to Try and Address as much as Possible,,,
*******************************
1. JACK O HEARTS,, thanks for the Help, you can most certainly track me, I CANNNNOTT do it myself,, too complex, I do ALL my capping by hand, and I honestly Cant Keep up,,,
I Will however Continue to Post "my Formulas WIN Record as Such in the Title" because it is the REcord according to the Formula,,,
2. PLAYER1,, These Games I am pulling out,,, Some of them ARE according to my Formula,,, but More Importantly,,, Is the QUITFACTOR%,,, that is What is more Important here,,, I Want to Find Value in my WEIGHTING of Loseing Teams,,
You are right if you FADED every team youd Be a POOR Muther,, I am not doing that,,, I Have Weights Set up to try and Put some FADES off the Baord For Example the SUNS Fell into the Formula, I announced they would NOT be a Play because of their QUITFACTOR% being too Low,,, and Good thing cause they covered 3 straight ATS,,,,
PLAYER 1 is 100% correct if you Try to go out and JUST FADE AWAY you willll LOSE your AZZZZ
along with my QUITFACOTR% I have Identified 3 SCENARIOS that are 99% going to bring us a Win,,, so When Faced with these Scenarios we are Going to Play 2-3-4 Units,,,, Keep in Mind this Means if we Lose that First Scenario, we will be LAYING 4-6-8 Units on the next FADE in that respective grouping,,,,
3. MOSEYESLY you are Right on,,, if Someone wanted to Include VIG in their Progression that would be Fine too,,, Again its too complex fro me to keep up,,,, I am here trying to WORK OUT the THEORY I HAVE ONLY,,
and your right they are not Just COOKIE CUTTER PLAYS, If I stopped today anyone else Stepping in to copy this would be in Trouble,,,
4. Player I am USING a NFL UNDERDOG FORMULA, and Progressing it,, its Working GREAT, UYou are right however, 99% of ALLLL Progressions DONT WORK!!! they Just FLAT OUT DONT!!!
I SPENT an ENTIRE Year Studying Roulette, and Various Progresion methods and Techniques,,, I finally found 1 that works,,, but GAWDAM it was Fing Hard,,,,, Same here,,,, I think I might of found an ANGLE here,,,
we will know very soon,,,
5. T1T,,, you are right on,,, and Most Following me dont realize that 55% is a DREAM HIT %,,, I would Guess 4% of ALL CAPPERS can Hit 57-62% in FOOTS,,, and Less than 1% can Hit 57% in HOOPS Although ZAPSTER and I Hit 70% with our AGREED Plays Most the WHole Year last year,,,hahah,,,,(only in the last month did we get to 60%
which again is better than 99% of all NBA CAPPERS,,,
6. KRUSER, BOXPLAYER is right,,, it is a THEORETICAL 14-0, Its my QUITFACTOR% that I Hope to Make Work here,,, Because I can Use it in Many Other Scenarios,,, (HalfTIME TOTALS SPECIFICALLY!!!) Zap is doing well with it,,, IF I can come to Him with a 80-95 QUITFACTOR % then we might Find ANOTHER SUPREMEE Screening TOOL
*******************
I think Most of you here GET ME,,, and WHat Im trying to do,,, If I didnt answer your Question its becuase I got Lost in the Thread,,, so re ask it,, This is ONLY a THEORY as of Now,,and IM NOT NOT telling EVERYONE TO follow me Necessarily,,, I want only to show, that I; (THATS ME); Can Overcome the Theoretical Disaster that Martingale Progressions Bring,
So Please to all that Read this,,Just know I am Doing my Best and WAGERING my Monies Just the SAME, and if you Do follow me, Bet within your means,,,
good luck
tater
,
I am Going to Try and Address as much as Possible,,,
*******************************
1. JACK O HEARTS,, thanks for the Help, you can most certainly track me, I CANNNNOTT do it myself,, too complex, I do ALL my capping by hand, and I honestly Cant Keep up,,,
I Will however Continue to Post "my Formulas WIN Record as Such in the Title" because it is the REcord according to the Formula,,,
2. PLAYER1,, These Games I am pulling out,,, Some of them ARE according to my Formula,,, but More Importantly,,, Is the QUITFACTOR%,,, that is What is more Important here,,, I Want to Find Value in my WEIGHTING of Loseing Teams,,
You are right if you FADED every team youd Be a POOR Muther,, I am not doing that,,, I Have Weights Set up to try and Put some FADES off the Baord For Example the SUNS Fell into the Formula, I announced they would NOT be a Play because of their QUITFACTOR% being too Low,,, and Good thing cause they covered 3 straight ATS,,,,
PLAYER 1 is 100% correct if you Try to go out and JUST FADE AWAY you willll LOSE your AZZZZ
along with my QUITFACOTR% I have Identified 3 SCENARIOS that are 99% going to bring us a Win,,, so When Faced with these Scenarios we are Going to Play 2-3-4 Units,,,, Keep in Mind this Means if we Lose that First Scenario, we will be LAYING 4-6-8 Units on the next FADE in that respective grouping,,,,
3. MOSEYESLY you are Right on,,, if Someone wanted to Include VIG in their Progression that would be Fine too,,, Again its too complex fro me to keep up,,,, I am here trying to WORK OUT the THEORY I HAVE ONLY,,
and your right they are not Just COOKIE CUTTER PLAYS, If I stopped today anyone else Stepping in to copy this would be in Trouble,,,
4. Player I am USING a NFL UNDERDOG FORMULA, and Progressing it,, its Working GREAT, UYou are right however, 99% of ALLLL Progressions DONT WORK!!! they Just FLAT OUT DONT!!!
I SPENT an ENTIRE Year Studying Roulette, and Various Progresion methods and Techniques,,, I finally found 1 that works,,, but GAWDAM it was Fing Hard,,,,, Same here,,,, I think I might of found an ANGLE here,,,
we will know very soon,,,
5. T1T,,, you are right on,,, and Most Following me dont realize that 55% is a DREAM HIT %,,, I would Guess 4% of ALL CAPPERS can Hit 57-62% in FOOTS,,, and Less than 1% can Hit 57% in HOOPS Although ZAPSTER and I Hit 70% with our AGREED Plays Most the WHole Year last year,,,hahah,,,,(only in the last month did we get to 60%
which again is better than 99% of all NBA CAPPERS,,,
6. KRUSER, BOXPLAYER is right,,, it is a THEORETICAL 14-0, Its my QUITFACTOR% that I Hope to Make Work here,,, Because I can Use it in Many Other Scenarios,,, (HalfTIME TOTALS SPECIFICALLY!!!) Zap is doing well with it,,, IF I can come to Him with a 80-95 QUITFACTOR % then we might Find ANOTHER SUPREMEE Screening TOOL
*******************
I think Most of you here GET ME,,, and WHat Im trying to do,,, If I didnt answer your Question its becuase I got Lost in the Thread,,, so re ask it,, This is ONLY a THEORY as of Now,,and IM NOT NOT telling EVERYONE TO follow me Necessarily,,, I want only to show, that I; (THATS ME); Can Overcome the Theoretical Disaster that Martingale Progressions Bring,
So Please to all that Read this,,Just know I am Doing my Best and WAGERING my Monies Just the SAME, and if you Do follow me, Bet within your means,,,
good luck
tater
,
for those of you that have AN OLYMPIC account,,, they have SPURS there -6.5 ,,, THURSDAY we are FADEING THE SPURS,,,, I am TAKING A LITTLE PHILLI +6.5 right now,,,,
I will Post the SPURS QUITFACTOR% in 10 mins,,,,
I suspect the Line will go to 6 or 5.5
*******************
SPURS Have a QUITFACTOR of 71.866% with this we have a 1 Unit FADE
QUITFACTOR% CHART
0-50 is a .5 Unit FADE
51-80 is a 1 Unit FADE
81- + is a 2-3-4 Unit FADE
Good luck to all
tater
I will Post the SPURS QUITFACTOR% in 10 mins,,,,
I suspect the Line will go to 6 or 5.5
*******************
SPURS Have a QUITFACTOR of 71.866% with this we have a 1 Unit FADE
QUITFACTOR% CHART
0-50 is a .5 Unit FADE
51-80 is a 1 Unit FADE
81- + is a 2-3-4 Unit FADE
Good luck to all
tater
Last edited:
My 2 cents ...
It seems to me that if the system is a good one (ie. picks ATS winners at greater than 55% or so), then why use the Martingale system at all? Why not proceed this way - calculate a NEW quit factor for each game of a road trip, instead of blindly doubling the initial wager? Now if you're saying that the chance for an ATS cover decreases after each successfully covered road game, then the Martingale system makes more sense. HOWEVER, if THAT is true, then why not start playing road teams only after successfully covering the first one or two in a row on a road trip?
I realize that this may be a bit more work than just blindly doubling the initial game bet, but if handicapping was easy, we'd all be millionaires, no?
It seems to me that if the system is a good one (ie. picks ATS winners at greater than 55% or so), then why use the Martingale system at all? Why not proceed this way - calculate a NEW quit factor for each game of a road trip, instead of blindly doubling the initial wager? Now if you're saying that the chance for an ATS cover decreases after each successfully covered road game, then the Martingale system makes more sense. HOWEVER, if THAT is true, then why not start playing road teams only after successfully covering the first one or two in a row on a road trip?
I realize that this may be a bit more work than just blindly doubling the initial game bet, but if handicapping was easy, we'd all be millionaires, no?
Ok, Tate
Let me get this whole system straight. You faded Seattle and the Bulls last night correct?
because it was a 2 unit play on the bulls and they covered, you now double it to 4 units tonight? Then Seattle was a 1 unit fade last night and you are going to fade them again tonight and double it to 2 units? So what happens if one of these two teams cover again tonight? Do you double tomorrow again, or do you just move on?
Let me get this whole system straight. You faded Seattle and the Bulls last night correct?
because it was a 2 unit play on the bulls and they covered, you now double it to 4 units tonight? Then Seattle was a 1 unit fade last night and you are going to fade them again tonight and double it to 2 units? So what happens if one of these two teams cover again tonight? Do you double tomorrow again, or do you just move on?
Doug,,,
Its Based on the "Law of the Third" It wins,,, It took 5th Place in a group of 30 "Popular"Formulas, it was leading the first 2 weeks,,, after 30 thosu spins,,, the tourney went to a Hund thous spins,,,,
anyway,,, not the topic for this thread,,,
emial me if you watn to talk,,,, tell me your theorys, I will tell you mine,,
tatehill2000@lycos.com
tater
Its Based on the "Law of the Third" It wins,,, It took 5th Place in a group of 30 "Popular"Formulas, it was leading the first 2 weeks,,, after 30 thosu spins,,, the tourney went to a Hund thous spins,,,,
anyway,,, not the topic for this thread,,,
emial me if you watn to talk,,,, tell me your theorys, I will tell you mine,,
tatehill2000@lycos.com
tater
Your Welcome, no wories,,, Kid
My NEW Record is
16-2 RECORD FOR FADE FORMULA +14.5 Units
I am Very Happy my 90% QUITFADE% GAME WON!!!! GO GSW!!! Hopefully this will continue,,,,
I will give updates in teh Morn,,,
good night Good luck
tater
*************
So far I take from this I might have found a Decent Weighting system,,, time will tell,,,
We ARE FADEING THE SPURS TOMORROW so Get your Best Line,,,
tater
My NEW Record is
16-2 RECORD FOR FADE FORMULA +14.5 Units
I am Very Happy my 90% QUITFADE% GAME WON!!!! GO GSW!!! Hopefully this will continue,,,,
I will give updates in teh Morn,,,
good night Good luck
tater
*************
So far I take from this I might have found a Decent Weighting system,,, time will tell,,,
We ARE FADEING THE SPURS TOMORROW so Get your Best Line,,,
tater
Tate's Tote Board:
I'm assuming your theoretical record is the "# of progressions" you've won or lost. In that case, last night's Seattle loss would be your first progression loss. Correct me if I'm wrong. Also, the number 2 after the team in the fade column indicates the 2nd fade in the progression for that team.
I'm assuming your theoretical record is the "# of progressions" you've won or lost. In that case, last night's Seattle loss would be your first progression loss. Correct me if I'm wrong. Also, the number 2 after the team in the fade column indicates the 2nd fade in the progression for that team.
Code:
Theoretical: 16 1
Actual: 16 8
Code:
Date Selection Fade Units Result W L YTD $
11/17 Golden St -6.5 Chicago 2 4 W 16 8 1240
11/17 Detroit -5 Minnesota 0.5 W 15 8 840
11/17 New Jersey +6 Seattle 2 <--L1 2 L 14 8 790
11/16 Sacrmto -13.5 Chicago 2 L 14 7 1010
11/16 Charlotte +11 Utah 1 W 14 6 1230
11/16 Philly -2 Seattle 1 L 13 6 1130
11/16 S.A. -11.5 New York 2 2 W 13 5 1240
11/14 Seattle -2.5 Memphis 1 W 12 5 1040
11/13 Indiana -7 New York 1 L 11 5 940
11/12 New York -1.5 L.A. Clips 2 2 W 11 4 1050
11/10 Indiana -6 L.A. Clips 1 L 10 4 850
11/10 S.A. -13.5 Golden St 2 2 W 10 3 960
11/10 Memphis -4 L.A. Lakers 2 4 W 9 3 760
11/9 New Orleans Pk L.A. Lakers 2 L 8 3 360
11/9 Orlando +3 Dallas 1 W 8 2 580
11/9 Sacramento -7.5 Toronto 1 W 7 2 480
11/8 L.A. Clips +6 Detroit 1 W 6 2 380
11/8 Dallas -13 Golden St 1 L 5 2 280
11/7 Toronto -3.5 Portland 1 W 5 1 390
11/6 Milwaukee -3.5 Cleveland 2 2 W 4 1 290
11/4 Miami -8 Cleveland 1 L 3 1 90
11/3 Phoenix -13 Atlanta 0.5 W 3 0 200
11/2 Dallas -4 Sacramento 0.5 W 2 0 150
11/2 Detroit -6 Houston 1 W 1 0 100Jack thanks for your help, I really couldnt do it without you,,,
My intention was to count Both Losses in my record,,, Maybe I shoudlnt,,, hmmmm,,, Your Probably right I should only count 1 Loss,,,
heres the thing, because I am counting EVERY WIN,,,, (as a Grouping ENDS) I thougth I should count EVERY LOSS (If my gourping LOST),,
It seemed to me that would be the BALANCE,,, because I AM counting the LOST UNITs from both games,,,,,, I dont mean to make this more complex than it already is,,,
thanks for your halp,,,
tater
My intention was to count Both Losses in my record,,, Maybe I shoudlnt,,, hmmmm,,, Your Probably right I should only count 1 Loss,,,
heres the thing, because I am counting EVERY WIN,,,, (as a Grouping ENDS) I thougth I should count EVERY LOSS (If my gourping LOST),,
It seemed to me that would be the BALANCE,,, because I AM counting the LOST UNITs from both games,,,,,, I dont mean to make this more complex than it already is,,,
thanks for your halp,,,
tater
Player1 (help me out)
Tate - sorry to use your thread but I figured Player1 would be in here today.
Player did you delete the stats from your 20 point blowout system that were posted in this thread yesterday.
Could you re - post results for 2002/2003 with units.
Appreciate it Player1 and thanks tate
Tate - sorry to use your thread but I figured Player1 would be in here today.
Player did you delete the stats from your 20 point blowout system that were posted in this thread yesterday.
Could you re - post results for 2002/2003 with units.
Appreciate it Player1 and thanks tate
