14-0 so far +15 UNITS!!! Not too bad huh?

[JOH]

Theoretical (14-0) ** Actual (14-7)

Tater,
Hope you don't feel I'm stepping on toes here, but I thought I would give your followers a condensed version of your fade plays to date with an actual up to date W/L Record and money won assuming 1 Unit = $110 to win $100. Using the vig, it would appear to show you are overestimating your actual winnings considerably. Check it out and see if you don't agree. If you'd like, I would be happy to keep this going for you. If not, say the word and I'm out of here. Continued good luck either way.

Date	Selection      	Fade           	Units	Result	W	L	YTD $
							
11/16	Sacrmto -13.5	Chicago 	2	L	14	7	1,010.00
11/16	Charlotte +11	Utah    	1	W	14	6	1,230.00
11/16	Philly -2	Seattle 	1	L	13	6	1,130.00
11/16	S. A. -11.5	New York	2	W	13	5	1,240.00
11/14	Seattle -2.5	Memphis 	1	W	12	5	1,040.00
11/13	Indiana -7	New York	1	L	11	5	940.00
11/12	New York -1.5	L.A. Clips	2	W	11	4	1,050.00
11/10	Indiana -6	L.A. Clips	1	L	10	4	850.00
11/10	S. A. -13.5	Golden St	2	W	10	3	960.00
11/10	Memphis -4	L.A. Lakers	4	W	9	3	760.00
11/9	New Orleans Pk	L.A. Lakers	2	L	8	3	360.00
11/9	Orlando +3	Dallas  	1	W	8	2	580.00
11/9	Sacramento -7.5	Toronto 	1	W	7	2	480.00
11/8	L.A. Clips +6	Detroit 	1	W	6	2	380.00
11/8	Dallas -13	Golden St	1	L	5	2	280.00
11/7	Toronto -3.5	Portland	1	W	5	1	390.00
11/6	Milwaukee -3.5	Cleveland	2	W	4	1	290.00
11/4	Miami -8	Cleveland	1	L	3	1	90.00
11/3	Phoenix -13	Atlanta 	0.5	W	3	0	200.00
11/2	Dallas -4	Sacramento	0.5	W	2	0	150.00
11/2	Detroit -6	Houston 	1	W	1	0	100.00

 

[t1t]

Player

Hey Tate hope you don't mind me using your thread.

Player can you look up the win/loss record ATS for a home team in their first home game after a road trip of 4 or more games. (Last 5 years)

Appreciate It.

 

[t1t]

Player You Just Got Me Excited

ARE YOU SAYING THE 218 -72 is ATS OVERALL WHEN THEY HAVE A 5 GAME
ROAD TRIP ????

 

[PLayer1]

t!t ..unfortunately i don't have that..I did start to look at it for last year..and as i recall it was about pretty close to even ..with the juice making it a losing proposition ..didn't continue cos it appeared it wasn't going to be a money maker....

 

[PLayer1]

T1T ..no .. i ma saying that if you blindly played a against a team on gm 1 of a road trip , and then blindly doubled them to lose game 2 if they won game1..you're record would be 218-72 ..however the 72 are DD losses of 3.42 units each theend result being a loss of 28.24 units on the season.this was in response to Tates system that he is currently playing ... the 5 game road trip numbers are on a post above..

 

[t1t]

Player

Hey player I am little confused. I understand the units being exposed based on Tates system however I think he bases his moves on his quitfactor rather than blindly.

My question to you is if I Faded every road team last year in the first 2 games on the road ATS would that record be 218 - 72

Thanks

 

[PLayer1]

Hi T1T .. no .. I am saying that in every road trip of at least 2 games last year ... a team lost ats in at least 1 of the first 2 . .. i.e didn't go 2-0 ats in the first 2.. 218 times. ..teams went 2-0 ats thefirst 2 games of a road trip 72 times..

 

[t1t]

Player thanks for clarification

One more question - After the first road cover what are the numbers for the
2nd game only ATS. Thanks

 

[PLayer1]

sorry..that i don,t have..but I would venture to guess that covers are probably about 50/50 in game one and 2 ..therefore half of 218 lose ats in game 2 meaning 109..and i know that 72 win ats in game 2 .. 109-72 ..that looks like about a 20 unit profit to me,but that is just speculative.. i will look further into it..thanks for bringing it up.

 

[t1t]

Tate Check This Out

TATE - I have played for over 20 years and whatever you are doing to
develop your quitfactor % - keep doing - I believe you are on to something.

As far as the money management goes it will bite you in the ass.

However your system is producing a very healthy 66% ats overall at 14 -7

If you can maintain anything close to this over the next 150 - 200 plays we

will all clean up. Keep it up.

 

[PLayer1]

ditto ..keep goig Tate T1T ,,to respond to your other question teams are 71-69 atsd in 2nd game after covering gm 1 ..(missing three are pushes in game one) ..

 

[kayaman]

Player, that last post you have is pretty interesting. Are you tracking it for this season? Are you posting these plays when they come up this season?

Thanks

 

[t1t]

Player

Hey player interesting angle.
Can you break it down after 20 point loss.

Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
Game 4

Thanks

 

[PLayer1]

kayaman .yes,,it is plus 6.6 units so far this year.. sorry i just deleted the system , decided not to post it in Tates thread ..as this is for his work .I iwll start my own when i get a chance but in the mean time tonite i am on level 2 taking both Washington and Indy risking 2.31 units on each to win 2.1 units

 

[PLayer1]

T1T ... sorry don,t have it broken down by game ..but it is distributed pretty evenly throughout .. many people run down martingale type systems , but i believe it takes money to make money..and while anything can happen in one given game ..over a group of games patterns do repeat themselves..hard part is finding them !..

 

[t1t]

Player

Player I use to use a system similar to martingale's for blackjack.
Worked quite well for a while - many years ago - single deck hand held.
Difficult to find these days and low table limits.

With sportbetting I am always looking to improve my %.

It is extremely difficult to grind out 55 - regardless of sport.

If you could just hit 55% on 1000 plays ATS year in and year out you could

retire even with a small bankroll.

 

[moseyesly]

It appears to me Tate is talking about finding quit factors in select situations, not betting them all blindly. Also, you could make a 2 unit play for 2.1 units, or a 4 unit play for 4.2 units to make up for the vig lost on the first play of the progression. If you are going to be ahead on the year, this should only add to your peofits. Keep up the good work , Tate, and thanx for posting all this great info!:drink:

 

[PLayer1]

true but it would take awhile as you are making about 55 units per year.. . if you have the patience and discipline to keep "reinvesting" your profits it can be done. . but 55% is so hard picking single games and one bad year can set you back ..thats why the only systems I use have to be consistently profitable going back at least 3 years..I have found so many that look great for one year..then go back another year and its the exact opposite..

 

[t1t]

PLAYER/martingale

Player - many years ago I used a system similar to martingales for handheld single deck blackjack. Worked quite well - however these days hard to find single deck with decsent table limits.

With sports betting I would never use a martingale type system.

If you can just hit 55% over 1000 games year in year out - you could retire
very easily with a small starting bankroll.

I am always looking to improve my % appreciate your angles.

 

[t1t]

Player you have the right name!

I think most sportsgamblers don't realize that hitting 55% is quite a feat in itself over let's say 1000 games.

Last season I coattailed 2 college kids in Canada that were absolutely unbelievable in Baseball. Thinking back 1 guy picked up over 40 units and the other guy over 70 units.

I know exactly where to find them next season.

Wish I could find same for Football and NBA. I do well in College hoops and usually start capping in early January.