100% lock winner or 55% consistent winners

[packer2012]

oh ok, I was clearly the most detailed in the thread and I did outline how it would go so I figured it was only natural you were replying to me. Even if you were I wouldn't care, I welcome discussion.

Like I said, I did figure the 1 bet was a superbowl/NC title game type deal where you can just unload on it. The M alone would book a few millions if you were some random I think. Pinny probably take 50-100k no problem, then you get into multi-accounting on a site like Pinny, having runners, etc. However since telling every single person with $ you know "I KNOW 100% WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL, GIVE ME ALL THE $ YOU HAVE" isn't really feasible, that is another + for the 55%.

Agree for the most part. I though of The M. Can Joe Public bet really big any day there? Or are they just taking big action from high profile people that they know are hammerheads looking for publicity?

 

[CHOPTALK]

If you know you are going to hit exactly 55% in a year. Once you are done with bet 99 and you have hit 54 of 99.
And you know your next bet is going to be your last bet of the year then you would have the advantage of both knowing you were 100% going to win your next bet.
So you could build up your bankroll hitting 54% on the other 99 bets then bet the house on the last one.

 

[packer2012]

You're a sly dog, Chop!

 

[PatsFan1283]

Again, my point is..... Someone said 100 bets a day..... Simply pointing out the naiveties of that post. Very few -1.10 many days of the year.

As I said..... I thought the original question was interesting.... just also interesting how people expose there lack of experience when they comment. Some of the stuff is outright funny. some is sort of sad.

During the dog days of summer it might be hard but even tennis, boxing and UFC matches have over/unders. Baseball has 15 games a day with O/Us and 5 inning O/Us. WNBA, etc...I think you would probably struggle to get action some days but the other days if you position your BR correctly your gonna be able to rollup like 300 plays pretty easy. I did say that with all the overlap you would have to really slash Kelly to like 1/3rd or 1/4th of full Kelly.

I've never thought about this before because it could never happen so anything I've said ITT is just pure stream of consciousness.

 

[PatsFan1283]

If you know you are going to hit exactly 55% in a year. Once you are done with bet 99 and you have hit 54 of 99.
And you know your next bet is going to be your last bet of the year then you would have the advantage of both knowing you were 100% going to win your next bet.
So you could build up your bankroll hitting 54% on the other 99 bets then bet the house on the last one.

nahhhh, he said your edge is 55% I think. So you gotta deal with variance and since the endpoint of a year is purely arbitrary then who knows what the next bet will bring. Also he said you can't just stop betting if you've run good.

 

[CHOPTALK]

There are -110 lines on something 365 days a year.
You are not required to be knowledgable about a particular sport if you are assured of hitting 55% no matter what.
So it would not matter if you are betting on Monday Night Football or a total on cricket game in India.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Agree for the most part. I though of The M. Can Joe Public bet really big any day there? Or are they just taking big action from high profile people that they know are hammerheads looking for publicity?

I would imagine if you showed up to Vegas 3 days before the superbowl with a briefcase with 10 million in it and wanted to put it on Pats -14.5 vs the Saints, you would find a home for the $. SB limits get pretty high.

 

[packer2012]

Guys..... I know it is sort of politically incorrect.....

But I am pointing out the childishness of some of the posters. People talking about 100 bets EVERY day and talking about betting $300K at EVERY book in Vegas are just worshipping at the Church of RUSS. Pure and simple! Case closed! Drive home safely!

 

[PatsFan1283]

Russ the dynamic but sometimes wreckless PG for OKC or Russ the guy from the Poli forum from OKC?

 

[packer2012]

I would imagine if you showed up to Vegas 3 days before the superbowl with a briefcase with 10 million in it and wanted to put it on Pats -14.5 vs the Saints, you would find a home for the $. SB limits get pretty high.

Not to argue. But I would guess you would either wear out several pair of shoes, or play at several different pointspreads.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah I mean you can buy new shoes and moving lines on the SB that late in the week is pretty hard.

They would likely just assume you are a high roller who wants to go nuts and not know that Shdw granted you the powers to hit 100% on this very game.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I would imagine if you showed up to Vegas 3 days before the superbowl with a briefcase with 10 million in it and wanted to put it on Pats -14.5 vs the Saints, you would find a home for the $. SB limits get pretty high.

I would certainly take that bet.

 

[packer2012]

Russ the dynamic but sometimes wreckless PG for OKC or Russ the guy from the Poli forum from OKC?

Russ, the child who posts the BIG, LARGE, HUGE plays for baseball. He is well known for past posting or claiming big winners that were never posted at all.

Don't miss his threads. He comes off like a tout, televangelist, and a moron all at once. (I guess that is redundant.... a tout is by definition a moron!)

 

[shdw01]

I would certainly take that bet.

Hahaha....chop gets told the only 100% lock of his life and he still bets the other way cause it is against the saints

 

[JustinCruise]

Hahaha....chop gets told the only 100% lock of his life and he still bets the other way cause it is against the saints

haha