You bet 50k or 100k on the 1 sure game, then take a shot with the basically free money that was given to you by capping the 1 sport you do well in & if you have won 100k, then bet $2,000 on games that you really like the rest of the year.
Thing is, most people would sell their house & every thing else they owned & go take out loans at the bank & get loans from loan sharks, borrow money from relatives, etc.......if they knew it was a guaranteed winner like you stated.
There just isn't enough info to answer. How many plays are in the 11-13 month range, how many per day, how many at a certain time?
The answer is probably the 55% if you can turn your BR over a lot and have the right outs but right now the answer is C. Not enough info
this is assuming you can't get access to capital. Obviously if you can get access to capital the answer is just the 100%. You bet the 1st quarter line on the 1st bowl game on Jan 1st then just do whatever you want after that...
I would take the gauranteed 55%, assuming its at -110 or a ratio of that on ML's over a year; bet every game on the board in every sport totals, sides, everything to avoid any daily variance at 1% 100 plays a day (why not I'm guaranteed 55% and thats better than what the books are getting, and they're not even guaranteed), and modify Kelly Stake 1% through out the year.
I'll let you play as many games as you like over the 11-13 months....only stipulation is that you don't decide when it stops...i.e. if you are at 54.9999% with one more game in 12 months, it doesn't mean the next game will win, it means you don't know.
playing 100 plays a day using 100% of your bankroll sounds pretty tough. imagine how many websites and how many casinos....to put in bets and collect money....everyday for 12 months.
I doubt you are putting 100% of your bankroll in one website...and even at that it looks like work
playing 100 plays a day using 100% of your bankroll sounds pretty tough. imagine how many websites and how many casinos....to put in bets and collect money....everyday for 12 months.
I doubt you are putting 100% of your bankroll in one website...and even at that it looks like work
yeah if I can just bet every event with a 6-7% edge or so (approx -108 since I'll be using Pinny for some action and 55%) I'd be able to setup a network using sites/landbased casinos, etc
Sounds daunting but it isn't at all if you know your hitting 55% (1-200 plays a day at 365 days is pretty much going to negate variance as long as you use kelly correctly)
Obviously if I could meet with a VC and tell him "I know NC State is gonna cover vs Nebraska at the Outback bowl, loan me 50 mill and we'll split the winnings 50/50" then I'd just do that but I'm guessing in your hypothetical that convincing someone absurdly rich that you are about to recreate Biff's run in Back to the Future is probably not feasible.
Don't feel like doing the math out but you would easily increase your BR like 40-50 fold rather than doubling it up.
I think you are correct. I don't know if I would be able to do the math...esp incorporating kelly...
but i still think it is a lot of work. which is the only reason why i probably sell my life savings, all assets, and max out all lines of credit to double up.
i also realize how much of an advantage the reduced juice is....but I think the main point is people are underestimating 55%
It isn't that much work and it'll be the last work you ever do...
They've built regions around casinos based on getting a 1-5% house edge, you will have about 6-7% on maximum volume. You can't go full kelly because so many of your games will overlap, probably gotta go quarter kelly but if you can just bet 200 games a day with halves, quarters, etc then it wouldn't matter really.
My guess is any 1 of us would mess this up somewhat in the year we were allowed to do it and get sub-optimal results since we would have no experience betting 200 times a day at different books, running up against limits all the time, etc. Still would do significantly better than just doubling up though
They've built regions around casinos based on getting a 1-5% house edge, you will have about 6-7% on maximum volume. You can't go full kelly because so many of your games will overlap, probably gotta go quarter kelly but if you can just bet 200 games a day with halves, quarters, etc then it wouldn't matter really.
My guess is any 1 of us would mess this up somewhat in the year we were allowed to do it and get sub-optimal results since we would have no experience betting 200 times a day at different books, running up against limits all the time, etc. Still would do significantly better than just doubling up though
I waited overnight to make a response to this. Trying to give the few “REAL” players a chance to get in on this.
Seems like an intriguing question right off the top. Better question would be.......
How much money could you possibly play on one game in the REAL world? (Not the Superbowl) If you are not talking Superbowl....... with a dozen beards and an unlimited bankroll...... how much would books really let you play? It occurs to me that if you are already guaranteed to win…… you would not care about line moves. I guess that would be part of the little exercise.
Interesting because so most of the responses here clearly indicate that people have no real understanding of betting serious dollars. But that's OK. It's been pointed out from time to time that hardly anyone on here is a REAL player. Kind of funny, in a way, that unintentionally someone would ask a question that would prove that point and make it so obvious in the responses.
Also, since there are months at a time where very few bets exist at a price of -1.10, that poses yet another problem.
But oddly enough, the kids just jump up and start talking about 100 bets every day and just lay down $300K at EVERY casino in Vegas. People act as if they think that could ever REALLY happen. So funny and pathetic at the same time.
Seems like an intriguing question right off the top. Better question would be.......
How much money could you possibly play on one game in the REAL world? (Not the Superbowl) If you are not talking Superbowl....... with a dozen beards and an unlimited bankroll...... how much would books really let you play? It occurs to me that if you are already guaranteed to win…… you would not care about line moves. I guess that would be part of the little exercise.
Interesting because so most of the responses here clearly indicate that people have no real understanding of betting serious dollars. But that's OK. It's been pointed out from time to time that hardly anyone on here is a REAL player. Kind of funny, in a way, that unintentionally someone would ask a question that would prove that point and make it so obvious in the responses.
Also, since there are months at a time where very few bets exist at a price of -1.10, that poses yet another problem.
But oddly enough, the kids just jump up and start talking about 100 bets every day and just lay down $300K at EVERY casino in Vegas. People act as if they think that could ever REALLY happen. So funny and pathetic at the same time.
well guess this is directed at me...jeez Packer thought we were cool
1. I've spent a very good amount of time in my life betting on sports. Does this really have to do with the casino games and no hot/cold stuff? Ugh...
2. Yeah I understand the liquidity issues with 1 big bet, I actually took it to mean a big NFL/CFB game that you could get a ton down on. Between every casino, all offshore and locals you would be able to get into the millions on a big bet. As far as liquidity for all the small bets, I said I'd have to move to Mexico/Canada so I can use Pinny, have a runner in Vegas, etc....I never said I'd roll out of bed and just get 50k on every game. Also using Kelly like 200k is the highest I'd need to go on a game and since the year ends during CFB/NFL I don't think this would be a problem.
3. I also took the question to mean an implied edge of 6-7% on every bet, not necessarily just -110. So you can bet baseball, soccer and pro sport money lines. Even if you couldn't just NHL/NBA/NFL/CFB then over/unders every single sport all around the world would be more than enough to satisfy your appetite. Some days you would be able to get 4-500 bets a day.
Tough to apply every single real life scenario to a purely hypothetical question. Obviously if this opportunity were presented you would need to read the rules about 30 times over and then determine the best course of action.
Pats, you and I are cool. I was not even referring to you. Not connecting some of the stupid stuff said in the thread to you. Just funny to me how many people have no idea what it means to make a REAL bet...... but they make comments exposing their ignorance and don't even realize it.
Don't want to pick at your post........... but I definitely disagree on the "Between every casino, all offshore and locals you would be able to get into the millions on a big bet" comment. Barring the Superbowl I don't see any way you could wager that much. Think what pissing assed sized bets so many books allow in Vegas. I think this is something people misunderstand.... but I think you know... if you think for a minute.
Most hotels would give their left nut to not even have a sportsbook. Would far rather have slots in that area. But Joe Public demands it so he can bet his tens grocery dollar parlays. Casinos use that to their favor the best they can. But in doing that...... they won't let you or I make a serious sports bet.... generally speaking.
Don't want to pick at your post........... but I definitely disagree on the "Between every casino, all offshore and locals you would be able to get into the millions on a big bet" comment. Barring the Superbowl I don't see any way you could wager that much. Think what pissing assed sized bets so many books allow in Vegas. I think this is something people misunderstand.... but I think you know... if you think for a minute.
Most hotels would give their left nut to not even have a sportsbook. Would far rather have slots in that area. But Joe Public demands it so he can bet his tens grocery dollar parlays. Casinos use that to their favor the best they can. But in doing that...... they won't let you or I make a serious sports bet.... generally speaking.
Packer...I dont think u read the thread well enough. I clearly made the point that it is not possible to bet 2 million on a game....unless u thought I was serious about $100k at 5dimes amd other places.
Also, there are -110 lines all season. During footballl and basketball there are point spreads and totals (sept - june). In other months you still have baseball and a few other sports with totals that are -110.
Also, there are -110 lines all season. During footballl and basketball there are point spreads and totals (sept - june). In other months you still have baseball and a few other sports with totals that are -110.
Tough to judge anyone for their comments in this thread. The opening was so vague that you could interpret it many different ways.
I for one instantly went for the 100% option because I thought he meant you could get one guaranteed winner each year. This would ensure you would be multi-multi millionaire.
Or, someone could choose the 55% route if they assumed you could bet on +200 and up dogs all year long.
Without specifics there really is no need for you to come down so hard on everyone that voiced their opinion in this thread.
oh ok, I was clearly the most detailed in the thread and I did outline how it would go so I figured it was only natural you were replying to me. Even if you were I wouldn't care, I welcome discussion.
Like I said, I did figure the 1 bet was a superbowl/NC title game type deal where you can just unload on it. The M alone would book a few millions if you were some random I think. Pinny probably take 50-100k no problem, then you get into multi-accounting on a site like Pinny, having runners, etc. However since telling every single person with $ you know "I KNOW 100% WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL, GIVE ME ALL THE $ YOU HAVE" isn't really feasible, that is another + for the 55%.
Again, my point is..... Someone said 100 bets a day..... Simply pointing out the naiveties of that post. Very few -1.10 many days of the year.
As I said..... I thought the original question was interesting.... just also interesting how people expose there lack of experience when they comment. Some of the stuff is outright funny. some is sort of sad.
