“BIG GAME PLAY”-Game of the Month: (8 Units)
Hawaii -3
-This is a
HUGE GAME for the Warriors’ season’s goals…This is a must win game for the Warriors’ hopes…This is a do or die time for the Warriors…Ok, I think you get the message…The Warriors cannot lose this game, PERIOD!....
AND THEY WON’T!
First of all, forget about last season with Colt, Coach Jones, WRs Bess and Grice-Mullen…They are history and last season was history…Next, forget about the first 2 blowout losses by the Warriors @Florida and @Oregon St…Florida, everyone knew, would kick the shit out of us, even the players…And Oregon State, well now we know that they are actually a very good team…and proved it in beating the #1 team in the land...A team which many said would beat an NFL team…LOL.
WHY, do I say forget about those two terrible losses the Warriors suffered?...Well simple, because the Warriors have already moved on from those games, both mentally and emotionally…And now they are completely focused on meeting their season’s goals…and against an opponent who is on their level...One thing, many have to understand that this Warrior team and new coaching staff weren’t looking to repeat what last season’s team did…Nope!...This Warriors team was realistic coming into this season and their goals to first defend their WAC crown and then to qualify for their own Hawaii Bowl…BCS Bowl repeat, national rankings, etc., all that good stuff was not listed as their top goals…Again, their goal is to win the WAC and/or qualify for their bowl game…And to do either they must start off with a win tonight…
Period!
Ok, now that we got that cleared up...I hope you realize why this game, I stated is almost a make or break game for the Warriors season…I know we still have a lot more FB games to play…but this season’s schedule is not in favor of the Warriors having to travel to Boise and also to Fresno St…so every game at home for the Warriors is a must win game...and especially for their hopes of being bowl eligible…With this schedule this season, it won’t be easy to do that…All the Warrior players and coaches know this.
So, how will they come up big against this up and coming Spartan team...Well below are some reasons why I feel they will play a very solid game.
*Sr QB Tyler Graunke will lead the way:
Most people out there are picking the Spartans to win in Honolulu…and basing this on the fact that they believe Hawaii completely sucks shit on both sides of the ball, and especially on offense…This is false…They also believe that Hawaii’s BCS Bowl team from last season was completely gutted and there is nothing left, especially on offense…This is also false…Furthermore, they believe that Hawaii has either a QB controversy, no quality QB to get wins for them, or that Sr QB Graunke is too hurt and won’t play in this game…And lastly, they believe that when June Jones left, so went their offense…These are false.
First off, I will let you know right now..that Sr QB Graunke will play this game, and I am expecting him to play the entire game…He, by his own words on Thursday, is at 90%...and will be ready to play from start to finish…Now, the coaches are keeping this QB decision to a game time decision so as to make SJST prepare for more than just Graunke…But again, I will let you know right now, he is going to play in this game.
Without Graunke playing this definitely wouldn’t be a play on Hawaii at all…as I can’t trust any of the other QBs in such a big important game as this is…But, with Graunke, I have full faith in this Sr, especially when he is playing at home…FULL FAITH!...Sure Graunke is no Colt, but one thing I like that Graunke brings is his toughness and also his ability to take off for additional yards…both things Colt wasn’t and didn’t do.
People need to forget about the offensive struggles the Warriors had in their last 2 road games…Yes, they stunk..but you also need to look at who they were playing and where…Also, I can tell you right now that even last season’s BCS Bowl team, led by Colt Brennan would have lost and struggled against Florida and a surging Oregon State….And, I wouldn’t be shocked that the results would have been the same…
Gang…we gotta remember that those two games were on the road and against top teams from the two top conferences…This game tonight is against an opponent that is no where near the caliber of those two…and again, this one is in our House….
So, Game is On!
Side note: Everyone talks about SJST’s defense being strong…well in last week’s game vs Stanford…the Cards QB Pritchard completed less than 50% of his passes against this Trojan’s defense and he also only connected on just 2 passes of 25 yards or more, with one of them to himself on a deflected pass that he caught….That kind of poor offensive output by the Cards was good enough to beat the Spartans…I expect a way better offensive output by the Warriors tonight.
Side note: One of the major weaknesses for this SJST team on defense is in their Linebackers and generating enough of a pass rush…Both will benefit Graunke tonight as he will mixed things up with both run and pass….Something, that June Jones never did in his pass-only offensive scheme.
Last, again with all the talk about how good the SJST defense is this season…and how potentless the Warrior offense is this season…I have to bring up the fact that they still couldn’t stop a weak Stanford offense that ranked 111th in the nation in total offense, and who have gone more than 3 straight games without a TD pass, currently completes less than 50% of their attempts and throws for approx. 100 yards less than the Warriors offense per game does.
*Expect the Warriors’ Defense to Step Up Big:
Another area of the team that I have full faith in at home against this opponent is in the Warriors defense…Everyone knows the Warriors by their past high flying offensive attack…But this season, getting to a bowl and defending their title has fallen on the shoulders of the defense…Under the guidance of Coach McMackin, the Warriors defense has been one of the top units in the WAC...This season they bring back a group of senior studs in the Linebacking corp in Elimimian and Leonard, who should slow down SJST’s RB Davis.
On the road the Warriors team as a whole is a very different bunch…and when things go bad in one area it seems to trickle to every area of play for them…But again, this one is at Home...where one area of the team can and does spark the others…In this game, I am expecting the Warrior’s defense to light that spark with solid play…At home in our house, they are known to bring out their best and play their best...And, one huge reason for this is the fact that they, especially the defensive players are playing in front of all their family and friends…Bottom line, beside the uplifting support they get from their family and friends…no local boy wants to ever get beat in front of their “Ohana” or family and friends.
Again, in this game…like most home games, I am expecting the Warriors defense to come up with and force more turnovers…and give the offense good field to work with….This will be Key as the Warriors currently rank last in the nation in Turnover Margin with -3.
So, how will they do this?...Well, expect the Warriors on defense to blitz the shit out of SJST and attack and disrupt the one area where the Spartans have shown to be very, very vulnerable…That area of vulnerability for them is on the O-Line…The Spartans’ O-Line is very young and filled with true Sophs...And, they are struggling to keep opponents out of their backfield…Currently, the Spartans have given up the most sacks than any other team in the country…In fact they have allowed 15 sacks for a negative -123 yard...
Not Good!
In their last game vs Stanford they allowed 8 sacks...which came by way of both the traditional way and also by blitzing LBs and Safeties… Hawaii coaches definitely scouted this weakness and are fully aware of how Stanford attacked them…Expect them to bring back the Wild Kamikazis…
Watch your backside Baby!
Ok…I guess I need to address the fact that SJST’s QB Reed currently leads the nation in passing efficiency…with his very eye-popping 79.4% completion rate...And, I need to also address that if you look closer you will see that he is only averaging just 6.8 ypa…and the reason why that average is so low is the fact that the Spartan’s are struggling to stretch the field on defenders…One of the big reasons why they struggle to do this is because they have been without one of the WAC’s best WRs in Kevin Jurovich (2nd-team All WAC last year), who is out with mononucleosis…In his first two games, he was averaging 91.5 ypg receiving, had a long of 55 yards, 1 TD, and averaged 12.2 ypc...His absence again in this game, gives the Warriors defense another big edge, as the Spartans only other deep threat and consistent receiver is WR Richmond.
All in all, even though many feel that the Spartans offense this season is much better than last seasons…SJST offense’s current struggles protecting their QB has caused them to unsuccessfully sustain drives, miss FGs, commit turnovers, misfire on 3rd down, and more importantly score points, especially late in games…Just look at how they lost late opportunities vs Neb and Stanford…If they think that things will get any easier vs a hungry Warrior defense, they better think again.
The Spartans RB Davis, who averages over 6 ypr…will face two of the WACs best LB’s and Hawaii’s best defensive players in senior LBs Solomon Elimimian and Adam Leonard…So I wouldn’t so easily expect them to run all over the Warriors…The Spartans should get their yards though on the ground, but the Warriors defense is decent against the run and also on 3rd down, which again means that the Spartans will have to complete passes downfield…And, like I mentioned above they are struggling to do that.
Side note: Against Stanford last week…the Spartans offense was just 3-of-13 on 3rd down.
With the Spartans struggling to score points, or even staying on the field for long sustained drives…I expect their defense to start wearing down, like it did in the past games…I definitely can see the Spartans offense continuing their recent tendencies to die in the 2nd half, especially in the 4th quarter…as Hawaii’s pressure will bring on sacks and tackles for losses…Their offensive line will be worked, but I don’t expect them to have an easy time with the pressure defense that I see the Warriors bringing all game long….
Watch Out!
*Expecting the Warrior’s Special Teams to out Special SJST’s Special Teams.
If a sputtering offense wasn’t enough for this Spartan team to fix…they also have to be concerned that their kicking game is shit right now…In fact, the Spartans have missed 2 extra points (most in the WAC) and also 6 of 9 FG attempts (which is also worst in the WAC).
In what many are expecting to be a close, fairly low-scoring game...teams cannot afford to miss scoring opportunities…And, this is even more critical when playing on the road in hostile territory.
Currently right now…Spartan kicker Strubeck has a very poor 37.5% FG success rate on the year....Warriors, on the other hand, have a solid FG kicker in SR Kelly.
The Spartans also are ranked last in the WAC conf in punting averaging just a measly 33.6 yards per punt, compared to Hawaii ’s 42.4 punt average (4th in the WAC).
The Warriors are poor on returns…but they have currently made a change back to WR Lane to return kickoffs again…Last season, Lane finished 10th nationally in kick returns, averaging 29.2 yards and two returns for TDs…His move back to the return game should help boost the Warriors with better field position.
Bottom line in the Special teams game…is Hawaii has the better veteran FG Kicker by far in Kelly…The better punting game and also the better return game with the return of Lane…And, besides struggling in the punt return game, the Warriors special teams is expected to be among the best in the WAC conf…In tonight’s game, with two good defenses, I like the fact that Hawaii has the better overall special teams play and playmakers…aka point scorers.
*Teams start to wilt in the 2nd half:
It’s no mystery that most teams who travel to play in Hawaii start to wilt in the 2nd half as the heat, humidity, and jet lag start to creep into them legs…It’s the same thing which happens in reverse when the Warriors need to travel to the mainland to play...
Here are some interesting trends which could play a factor late in the game…Hawaii has played tough defense in the first and fourth quarters of games thus far, only allowing a total of 17 points…SJST offense has been dying down the stretch in games at Neb and at Stanford which they could have won…In their last game at Stanford the offense sputtered again and produced only 54 yards rushing and only 219 yards of total offense...
The 2nd half is also when teams making that flight over the Pacific start to feel the heat, humidity, and the JETLAG creeping in…Tomorrow’s weather report is, no wind..but some Vog (look up what Vog is).
*Hawaii struggled in the first half vs Weber St but still blew them out in the 2nd half when Grauke came in…SJST, on the other hand, struggled to beat UC Davis 13-10.
A lot of talk is going around about how Hawaii was down to Weber St in the first half…and needed a 2nd half rally to win it…Well, we should all know by now that Hawaii struggles to get up for their first home game vs non Div I schools, which they always schedule…Remember when Florida Atlantic, a Div 2 school at the time came to Hawaii and upset them in OT…Probably not.
Well, the point is it happened and lack of focus and motivation was the cause, especially coming off of playing Florida…Furthermore, SR QB Graunke didn’t play in the 1st half…but he did come in the 2nd half to lead the 2nd half domination to a win.
If we talk about that game vs Weber St and how the Warriors struggled…then it is only fair to point out how the Spartan’s struggled the whole game vs Cal Davis and almost lost if not for a 17 yard TD pass with 8 seconds left to play to avoid the upset…Also something to note in that game was that SJST’s run offense was held to a measly 42 yards on the ground by Cal Davis defense.
Anyway…the fact to the matter is both games were early in the schedule and both were against inferior opponents…and both teams came out with a win…So, I think it’s a moot point to use it against the Warriors to try and reflect or gauge how poor they are this season…It doesn’t stand up...And, this game vs SJST will prove it for the Warrior defense led by Graunke…and expose even more SJST’s problems especially on the offensive side at the same time.
*More Stats & Info:
- Hawaii is 17-1 since the start of the 2006 season at Aloha Stadium…only loss was to Oreg St.
- Hawaii has won its last 15 WAC regular season games since loss to Boise St in 2006.
- Hawaii also has a 9 game WAC home win streak.
- Hawaii has not lost back-to-back games since 2005.
- Hawaii has also started 1-2 in five of the past six seasons.
- Hawaii has won the last 7 games vs San Jose State dating back to 2001.
- Hawaii coming off a much needed Bye week to heal and refresh for this WAC opener.
-SJST is 1-17 SU & 7-12 ATS as an AD.
In conclusion…YES, this isn’t the high-flying Hawaii team of last year…But, this is still a Hawaii team with some playmakers and a team with a lot of Heart and Pride, especially when playing on their home field …Remember, Hawaii’s home field advantage, right?...Well, I am no where near convinced that this SJST team is good enough to overcome that or the Warriors just yet.
YES, the Spartans are far better this year…but they are also far from being polished, and do have offensive issues of their own…The problem for them is trying to fix it here in Honolulu against the defending WAC champs isn’t an easy thing to do…just ask all the other teams who came in sputtering.
Both these teams are similar in that they have issues on offense…and better defenses…But this one will come down to heart, determination, execution, and home field advantage…The Warriors are still the defending Champs…so you can add in pride as well to that mix on their side.
Take Hawaii as a
“BIG GAME PLAY”-Game of the Month selection and
Lets Go Get Em!
*Please disregard any typos or grammatical errors as I had no energy to edit this shit…LOL.
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