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2* Baltimore +110 (Big Win 11-6)
Can Chris Bassitt turn in a third straight strong start going up against a dangerous offense in hostile territory? Will the Blue Jays exercise their interdivision demons against a team that punked them at home? With how the Orioles are swinging their bats lately, it's not looking likely. Even with Baltimore trotting out one of their weaker starters, he's already shut down the Blue Jays once this season. If Dean Kremer keeps this game close, Baltimore's bullpen will beat Toronto's on most nights. With the offenses roughly equal, I like the better team at home.
2* Arizona +125 (Lost)
Philadelphia came into this series 13-22 in away games. They also entered it 8.0 games behind the Diamondbacks in the standings. They may have the starting pitching edge in this game, but that's about it. Even then, Arizona got to Wheeler when they faced him in May. The Diamondbacks will neutralize Philadelphia's lone advantage in this contest and stay hot with a home win. Their offense is that dangerous.
Texas has pounded left-handed pitching this season. The Rangers are hitting .289 vs. lefties this season with a .825 OBPS and 66 extra-base hits. Detmers has an ERA of nearly six on the road this season and should be fodder for the Rangers' right-handed hitting lineup featuring the likes of Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, and Adolis Garcia. Even left-handed hitting Corey Seager is batting .367 vs. lefties this season. The Angels will be able to put up some numbers as well with one of the top run-scoring teams in baseball but will be battling a Rangers team that is tops in run differential this season and has the second-best home record in the American League. This should be an entertaining, high-scoring game that will likely be decided by the bullpens late. I'm leaning toward the Rangers in this one.
2* Washington +1.5 +100 (Won 4-5)
Houston's pitchers shouldn't struggle against this Nationals lineup at any point of this series. The bigger question is if Washington's pitching can match. In this game, with Josiah Gray starting, it should. Gray has a 2.63 ERA on the road and is facing a shorthanded version of the Astros lineup. The Nationals have been winning Gray's starts, or at least keeping the game within one swing throughout. Washington keeps this one close, with a chance to win.
3* Cincinnati -1.5 +145 (Won Big 7-4)
Taking the team that's red-hot and better at nearly every facet of the game seems wise here. Kansas City is miserable on the baseball diamond right now, and there doesn't appear to be a quick solution anywhere. The starters are mediocre at best, the bullpen is unreliable, and the offense is nonexistent. Cincinnati is young and having fun right now. The Reds' resurgence continues in this series finale.
Detroit has lost nine of its last 10 and the Tigers have lost nine of the last 10 when playing against a right-handed starting pitcher. Minnesota has won three of its last four. The Twins have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Minnesota is 3rd or better in four major pitching categories, which includes a second best team ERA of 3.54, and will be facing a Detroit lineup that has scored the fewest runs in baseball with 229 for an average of 3.58 runs per game. Detroit starting pitcher Matthew Boyd was roughed up last time out allowing six hits and five runs in five innings including giving up two home runs and the Tigers lost to Arizona 5-0 last Saturday. In contrast, Minnesota starter Sonny Gray is coming off an excellent outing in which the right hander allowed five hits and one run in five innings but did not get the decision in a 3-2 victory for Minnesota over Toronto in 10 innings last Friday. In 13 starts this season, Gray has not allowed more than three earned runs and has held opposing teams to two earned runs or less in 10 of the 13 starts.
2* Chicago WS +127 (Lost Extra Innings 4-5)
The Chicago White Sox have been competitive recently, posting a 6-4 record in their last ten games. The Los Angeles Dodgers have not been at their best. They have dropped seven of their last ten games due primarily to injuries and weak pitching including an 8-4 loss on Wednesday. Furthermore, White Sox starter Dylan Cease is in a groove, conceding two or fewer runs in three of his last four performances. The Dodgers are decimated with injuries to the pitching staff and are starting Michael Grove in this one. Grove has been exploited, squandering eight runs in his last two starts spanning only nine innings, and has a disastrous 8.28 ERA on the season.
4* Tampa Bay -118 (Big Win 6-1)
2* Tampa Bay -1.5 +150 (Big Win 6-1)
The best record in the league with their best pitcher on the mound who has led them to a win in 85.7% of his starts. At those odds, this is a no-brainer. McClanahan is facing an offense that is having an unproductive year and has one of baseball's best offenses on his side. San Diego's best hope is keeping the Rays off the board, and that lineup is too talented to be shut out. Tampa takes the series opener.
Saturday June 17th - The Money Team Wins Yesterday MLB Recap 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
2* Miami -1.5 +100 (Won 5-2)
The Marlins have won nine of their last 12 games and six of their last nine road games. They struggled offensively in recent games, scoring only eight runs in their last three road games. But, they will play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Irvin has struggled on the mound this season, giving up 16 runs in his last four starts. He gave up 18 runs in his last four home starts, and with Washington having the fourth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Marlins in this game. The Nationals have lost four of their last six games and four of their last five home games. They have struggled offensively, scoring only nine runs in their last three games. Expect their offensive struggles to continue in this game because Garrett has done a great job on the mound in recent starts, giving up only five runs in his last three starts. He gave up only two runs in his last three home starts and two runs in his last two starts against the Nationals, so expect him to keep Washington’s offense in check. Go with Miami to cover the run line.
3* Seattle -1.5 +140 (Lost 4-3)
The Chicago White Sox are awful on the road, with a 13-23 record in away games. Their offense is a no-show often, and their bullpen is a mess. If they have any shot in this game, it's because Lucas Giolito stays hot and completely neutralizes the opposing lineup. Seattle's offense isn't crushing anyone either, but Giolito is due to regress a bit and give up some runs. This game shouldn't get out of hand, but the Mariners are likely to grab an early lead. With their bullpen, that should be enough to count the win.
If the Athletics are back to losing consistently, it's safe to bet against them every night again. Especially with a streaking Philadelphia team in town and their top starting pitcher on the mound for the start. Hogan Harris can give Oakland a chance, but the Athletics' offense, defense, and bullpen won't be much backup. Take the team that's better, hotter, and needs a win more, which is the Philadelphia Phillies.
2* Arizona -106 (Lost)
In a game where the pitching may not be the best, the Diamondbacks are better equipped to take advantage of scoring opportunities. Especially since the Guardians struggle on the road (16-20) and mustered eight of their 12 runs in one game of this road trip. In the other three, before Saturday, they combined for four. Arizona's offense has been impossible to put down this season, and they've been much better at winning this year than Cleveland. The Snakes bite another team at home, this time the Guardians.
3* Boston -130 (Won 3-1)
2* Boston -1.5 +145 (Won 3-1)
There is a major difference in the pitching splits for these starters as Luis Severino is 0-1 with an 8.78 ERA and a .345 batting average against him in three starts while Bello is coming off his best performance of the season with seven solid innings against the Yankees a week ago. These offenses as of late have shown a difference as well, with the Red Sox scoring 4.29 runs in their last 14 games while the Yankees are averaging 3.82 runs in their previous 11 games. All in all, go with the Boston Red Sox to pick up a home win to end the series.
Monday June 19th - The Money Team Wins Yesterday MLB Recap 1-0 +3.15 Units
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3* San Francisco +105 (Big Win 7-4)
Why bet against the San Francisco Giants with how they're playing these days? Every facet of the game is going well for them, and they get to return to a home crowd after sweeping their blood rivals. The Giants also get a chance for revenge after the Padres punked them in April. They may not have named a starter yet, while the Padres have Michael Wacha lined up, but it shouldn't matter. Whoever takes the mound steps up against an underwhelming Padres offense, while San Francisco's bats continue to rake.
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4* Chicago Cubs -1.5 +135 (Won 4-0)
Marcus Stroman is on the bump, so it's win day for the Cubs. He shut down Pittsburgh once, and he should do it again with how they're swinging right now. So the pressure is on Johan Oviedo to bounce back against the Cubs, keeping the game tight before ceding to the bullpen. It probably won't happen with how the Cubs' bats have been making contact. Chicago should only need about four runs to win this comfortably.
2* San Diego -110 (Lost 3-4)
This game could easily go either way, and I’m backing the Padres only because of their strong record against Anthony DeSclafani. The current Padres are 26-for-104 with five doubles, seven home runs, and 14 RBI versus DeSclafani, whereas the current Giants are 7-for-30 with one double and a couple of RBI against Seth Lugo.
As I’ve mentioned above, both teams are swinging a hot bat in June. The Padres have posted a 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and 142 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers so far this month, while the Giants have registered a 115 wRC+ against the righties and 139 wRC+ versus the southpaws.
The Giants’ bullpen has been terrific as of late. It has recorded a 2.25 ERA and 3.15 FIP in the last ten days and 48 innings of work. A high workload will lead to inevitable regression which is another reason why I lean toward the Padres, whose bullpen has thrown 34 innings in the last ten days while posting a 2.91 ERA and 3.63 FIP.
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1* Arizona -133 (Won Big 5-1)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been a reliable squad to back on the road. They have won eight out of their last ten road bouts including a 9-1 win in Monday's series opener. The Brewers have not been winning with any consistency. They have only won four of their last ten games including an ugly home sweep by the A’s in that span.
Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen on the mound. The ace continues to shine, conceding two or fewer runs in four of his last five performances. Arizona has won in three of his last four starts. Gallen tossed seven shutout innings against the Brewers.
2* Minnesota -124 (Won 5-4)
Sonny Gray is on the bump at home, and the Twins need a win. Considering he held the Red Sox to one run the first time he faced them, they should be in excellent shape pitching-wise. The offense may struggle to score as they have all month, but only a few runs should do the trick. Boston is hot, Minnesota is cold, but strong pitching carries the Twins to the finish line.
4* Minnesota Under 8.5 -120 (9 Runs)
Boston has a daunting task trying to score on Sonny Gray this game. They failed last time in Boston, and Gray is usually better at home. The Twins' bullpen isn't much easier to beat. On the other side, the Twins will try to muster anything at the plate. They've spent most of June failing to produce. Right now, expecting Minnesota to score isn't a wise endeavor. This game shouldn't have a lot of scoring.
Thursday June 22nd - The Money Team Wins
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2* Twins -1.5 +130 (WonBig 6-0)
The Twins need a pitcher to buckle down and hinder Boston's offense, and Joe Ryan is one of their best options for that job. He won't give them free bases, forcing the bats to beat the defense for most of the game. Minnesota's offense should also have a favorable matchup against whoever Boston trots out to begin this game. The Red Sox are running out of pitching options, and don't have enough depth in the bullpen to realistically only use relievers. Minnesota's offense wakes up, their pitching gets back on track, and they salvage a win to close this series.
2* Pirates Under 7.5 (10 Runs)
The Marlins have registered a 98 wRC+ against the righties and 59 wRC+ versus the lefties in the last ten days. The starting duo should fare well in this matchup, so I’m backing the under on the totals even though the Pirates’ bullpen has been awful lately. As I’ve said, the Pirates have scored 20 runs in their last nine contests overall. Three of their previous five games have seen seven or fewer runs on the scoreboard. On the other side, four of Miami’s last seven tilts have produced fewer than eight runs in total.