NBA has been a quagmire lately. Seeing GS score 2 in the 4th last night makes me wonder if some kind of weird BS is going on. Those guys played almost every possession down below 10 on the shot clock before even ATTEMPTING to penetrate....let alone shoot.
So to say we "like" a game these days....well I'm not sure how meaningful that can even be.
For me, I have a formula that calculates "form and pace" so if teams don't play true to form my plays do badly (as in if Houston decides to run or if Dallas decides to go half court, I am usually dead).
Tate on the other hand incorporates a lot of subjectivity into his picks and is really good at spotting the intangibles that occur.
That combination was LETHAL early in the season, as our record showed. But lately, the play in the NBA has been so haphazard, there often seems to be no rhyme nor reason to what goes on....and formula players like myself do not do well in that scenario.....and giving Tater a bunch of losing plays to choose from has made his job impossible.
All we can do is hope the teams start playing truer to form. If that happens we still have 1/2 of a season to cash on this. I used to refer to playing NBA totals as "harvesting cash." Now I have no idea WHAT to call it, when I see a high scoring team score 2 in a quarter.
All that being said, we do have an agreed play tonight.........:
Memphis OVER 198
They say a journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step. Let's take that step tonight !!
So to say we "like" a game these days....well I'm not sure how meaningful that can even be.
For me, I have a formula that calculates "form and pace" so if teams don't play true to form my plays do badly (as in if Houston decides to run or if Dallas decides to go half court, I am usually dead).
Tate on the other hand incorporates a lot of subjectivity into his picks and is really good at spotting the intangibles that occur.
That combination was LETHAL early in the season, as our record showed. But lately, the play in the NBA has been so haphazard, there often seems to be no rhyme nor reason to what goes on....and formula players like myself do not do well in that scenario.....and giving Tater a bunch of losing plays to choose from has made his job impossible.
All we can do is hope the teams start playing truer to form. If that happens we still have 1/2 of a season to cash on this. I used to refer to playing NBA totals as "harvesting cash." Now I have no idea WHAT to call it, when I see a high scoring team score 2 in a quarter.
All that being said, we do have an agreed play tonight.........:
Memphis OVER 198
They say a journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step. Let's take that step tonight !!
Well....we stumbled into the All-Star break and our YTD record is now........:
45-36 (55.56% Winners) (All Plays)
12-7 (63.15% Winners) (Biggies)
Tonight we have a "biggie" meaning I have it as a 15 (or more) Unit Play and Tater shows it as Lg or Med. This has only happened 19 times this season and we have hit 12 of them so far. Tonight's play, Tater is showing as his best of the day. The play is......:
Portland UNDER 194.5 (15 Units)
Sure....Kobe is back, but I think the linesmakers got carried away with how much that fact impacts the flow of the game. I calculate this one at 176.5 so if the line were in the mid 180's (which is where I think it should be) I would have laid off.....but 194.5 ?? I don't think so. Needless to say, Tate and I BOTH need this one to restore our faith in humanity, so we need everyone's help on this one. I want to open my window during the game and hear shouts of "DEE-FENSE" coming from all over RXland !!
45-36 (55.56% Winners) (All Plays)
12-7 (63.15% Winners) (Biggies)
Tonight we have a "biggie" meaning I have it as a 15 (or more) Unit Play and Tater shows it as Lg or Med. This has only happened 19 times this season and we have hit 12 of them so far. Tonight's play, Tater is showing as his best of the day. The play is......:
Portland UNDER 194.5 (15 Units)
Sure....Kobe is back, but I think the linesmakers got carried away with how much that fact impacts the flow of the game. I calculate this one at 176.5 so if the line were in the mid 180's (which is where I think it should be) I would have laid off.....but 194.5 ?? I don't think so. Needless to say, Tate and I BOTH need this one to restore our faith in humanity, so we need everyone's help on this one. I want to open my window during the game and hear shouts of "DEE-FENSE" coming from all over RXland !!
Have posted these thoughts before; yet no-one responds; so will post this one last time. Have noticed when lines o/u are off (like this game over 10pts. higher than prev.) and it begs for you to take the under; it almost always goes over!!! Looking that-a-way after the 1st quarter; la/po. WHY; have ventured that it must be the crew of zebra's and the books know ahead of time. Any other ideas or thoughts???
Sammy....
Actually these games that are way off are the games Tate and I seem to do better at. I have no idea about the refs....all I can hope is that that kind of thing evens out in the long run and that the games play true to form. I do agree that refs can make or break a total, but there is no way to cap that into account.
Meanwhile the pacing of this game seems about what it should be at halftime. They did shoot very well in the first quarter, but came back to earth in the second. Barring a second half track meet or OT we should be fine on this one.
Actually these games that are way off are the games Tate and I seem to do better at. I have no idea about the refs....all I can hope is that that kind of thing evens out in the long run and that the games play true to form. I do agree that refs can make or break a total, but there is no way to cap that into account.
Meanwhile the pacing of this game seems about what it should be at halftime. They did shoot very well in the first quarter, but came back to earth in the second. Barring a second half track meet or OT we should be fine on this one.
well zap, by the time my lazy ass got around to betting the under in the portland game the under was 190
I wasnt about to bet that 4.5 points off!!! so I looked at the first half & Pinny had under 95.5 + 110....._110 I said to myself...crazy!!! I banged it...I had a crazy day went like 11-1 ir 10-2 today when all was said & done
I wasnt about to bet that 4.5 points off!!! so I looked at the first half & Pinny had under 95.5 + 110....._110 I said to myself...crazy!!! I banged it...I had a crazy day went like 11-1 ir 10-2 today when all was said & done
sammy,,,, youa re right about the ZEBRA theory,,
In another thread months back I recounteda story of in I think the 80s a syndicate went through Vegas and almost Bankrupted ahlf the casinos!!!! from that point on,,, is why they are SOOOOO strict with their NBA totals,,,, most casinos QUIT taking totals for a while,,,
this group would bet 6 figures on games,, they went some CRAZY number like 52-3!!!!
come to find out,,, all the games this group BET on,,they thought were Payoffs,,, they thought the CLOCK OPERATOR was cheating with TIME,,,, they Investigated the WHOLE NBA!!!!
the one part they didnt investigate was who was reffing,,, (Enter David Stern) they stopped announceing who was officiating I dont think anyone knows but a select few befoer tipoff,,, and of course now after every game they have a group to view tape,,,and keep the refs "fair and Unbiased"
You might be able to find a few of the reffing Teams that will Hit some teams harder than others,,,, but it would be a VERY difficult task!! very ahrd,,, it is One of those GUARDED STATISTICS STERN wants noone to know,,,
good luckt o all
tater
In another thread months back I recounteda story of in I think the 80s a syndicate went through Vegas and almost Bankrupted ahlf the casinos!!!! from that point on,,, is why they are SOOOOO strict with their NBA totals,,,, most casinos QUIT taking totals for a while,,,
this group would bet 6 figures on games,, they went some CRAZY number like 52-3!!!!
come to find out,,, all the games this group BET on,,they thought were Payoffs,,, they thought the CLOCK OPERATOR was cheating with TIME,,,, they Investigated the WHOLE NBA!!!!
the one part they didnt investigate was who was reffing,,, (Enter David Stern) they stopped announceing who was officiating I dont think anyone knows but a select few befoer tipoff,,, and of course now after every game they have a group to view tape,,,and keep the refs "fair and Unbiased"
You might be able to find a few of the reffing Teams that will Hit some teams harder than others,,,, but it would be a VERY difficult task!! very ahrd,,, it is One of those GUARDED STATISTICS STERN wants noone to know,,,
good luckt o all
tater
YTD:
46-36 (56.09% Winners) (All Plays)
13-7 (65% Winners) (Biggies)
Tonight:
Sacramento OVER 206.5
I calc this one at 213.6 which translates to a minimal play for me....but a play nevertheless. Tater says this is his best game of the night but is quick to point out that there aren't a lot of gams to choose from. I'd say this one is worth at least a "friendly wager" but not one to go nuts over.
46-36 (56.09% Winners) (All Plays)
13-7 (65% Winners) (Biggies)
Tonight:
Sacramento OVER 206.5
I calc this one at 213.6 which translates to a minimal play for me....but a play nevertheless. Tater says this is his best game of the night but is quick to point out that there aren't a lot of gams to choose from. I'd say this one is worth at least a "friendly wager" but not one to go nuts over.
NOT the result we sought last night. The pacing of the game wasn't bad....but who knew that Mike Bibby and Bobby Jackson decided to play blindfolded. Combined 6 for 28 and Sacto shooting 33.7% overall spells u-n-d-e-r.
Hopefully putting that behind us, we do have a play tonight..........:
Utah UNDER 175
This is one of those rare "biggies" so treat it accordingly. I for one will be screaming DEE-FENSE at my tv, my kids, my dogs, my neighbors....and the men in white coats who come to take me away...haha !!
Hopefully putting that behind us, we do have a play tonight..........:
Utah UNDER 175
This is one of those rare "biggies" so treat it accordingly. I for one will be screaming DEE-FENSE at my tv, my kids, my dogs, my neighbors....and the men in white coats who come to take me away...haha !!
