THURSDAY EARLY RESULTS (2-3)
Had some nice winners and a few WTF selections......
Houston -3 (Lost 14-21)
New England -1 (Lost 9-12)
Philadelphia -3.5 (Lost 18-24)
Carolina PK (Super Blowout Winner 23-6)
Kansas City +3 (Su Blowout Winner 24-17)
XS
Had some nice winners and a few WTF selections......
Houston -3 (Lost 14-21)
New England -1 (Lost 9-12)
Philadelphia -3.5 (Lost 18-24)
Carolina PK (Super Blowout Winner 23-6)
Kansas City +3 (Su Blowout Winner 24-17)
XS
THURSDAY RESULTS (4-4) / XNFL RECORD (29-28)
Lean a lot during this year NFL Preseason, going to do some final tweaking before the start of the season..... Hats off to my friend Greenbacks2 who had one hell of a NFL Preseason here @ therx (38-10-2)...... you deserve it my friend!!!!
. See you all in a few days!!!!
Denver -5 (Lost 20-22)
Seattle -3 (Easy Winner 31-21)
San Diego +3 (Easy Winner 12-14)
XS
Lean a lot during this year NFL Preseason, going to do some final tweaking before the start of the season..... Hats off to my friend Greenbacks2 who had one hell of a NFL Preseason here @ therx (38-10-2)...... you deserve it my friend!!!!
. See you all in a few days!!!!Denver -5 (Lost 20-22)
Seattle -3 (Easy Winner 31-21)
San Diego +3 (Easy Winner 12-14)
XS
Xs
since you keep coming n my threads i will be doing a spread sheet daily all season long on your football plays since you dont post an accurate record daily..i had you losing $112,00.00 last season..follow me this year in football as i just finished the nfl pre-season going 8-2 winning $ 12,000.00-- winning 80% !!!!
Theerodfather
since you keep coming n my threads i will be doing a spread sheet daily all season long on your football plays since you dont post an accurate record daily..i had you losing $112,00.00 last season..follow me this year in football as i just finished the nfl pre-season going 8-2 winning $ 12,000.00-- winning 80% !!!!
Theerodfather
2014 NFL RECORD (176-159) +$61,570
FOR THOSE THAT ARE NEW TO THE FORUM AND WOULD LIKE TO KNOW LAST YEARS NFL RECORD FOR 2014 IT IS POST WITH ALL MY PLAYS AND 100% ACCURATE FROM LAST YEARS 2014 NFL WINNING SEASON TREND.....
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=994904&page=21&highlight=2014+ncaa+football
MOST OF YOU HERE ARE WELL AWARE OF MY LOSING AND WINNING SEASONS, BUT FOR THOSE OF YOU AND CAN'T KEEP TRACK OF YOUR OWN LOSING RECORD (ROD F) THIS MAY HELP YOU OUT.....
YOU HAD A GREAT PRESEASON NFL RECORD ROD (GREAT FOR YOU AND YOU WILL ALWAYS REMEMBER YOUR FIRST) BUT YOUR NOT THE ONLY THAT DID THAT WELL OR BETTER, IN FACT GREENBACK2 WENT (38-10-2) AND YOU DON'T SEE HIM ACTING LIKE A CHILD DO YOU?
NOW LETS SEE HOW YOU DO IN THE REGULAR SEASON!
I'M NOT SELLING PICK AND IF I WAS, I WOULD BE HONEST WITH ALL MY MEMBERS AND NOT MAKE UP STORIES ABOUT WINNING XXXX AMOUNTS OF CASH WHEN YOU AND ALL OF US KNOW THAT IS NOT THE CASE!
WERE ALL WAITING FOR YOU TO PROVE YOU STATEMENT ABOUT A WINNING SEASON..... TOOK ME 30 MINUTES TO GO THRU YOU FOOTBALL AND BASKETBALL TRENDS, AND WE ALL KNOW THAT BASEBALL IS YOUR BEST SPORT AND WAITING ON THAT UPDATE AS WELL.
SAW ONE OF YOUR POSTS BRAGGING ABOUT PAGE VIEWS...... YOUR NFL TREND (FROM 2001-2015) HAS #484,850 AND YOUR MLB TREND (FROM 2013-2015) HAS #78,052...... DO YOU FIGURE THAT EACH VIEW YOU GET YOU CAN ADD $2 TO YOUR SEASON RECORD??? THAT WOULD PUT YOU CLOSE TO THE YOUR MADE UP $800,000 NUMBER.
AND OF THOSE VIEWS NOT ONE OF THEM HAS EVER SAID ANYTHING ABOUT ME MAKING UP YOUR RECORD!!!! NOT ONE!!! AND I EVEN SAW ONE POST BY YOU SAYING "THANKS XS FOR HELPING ME WITH MY RECORD I'M NOT DOING WELL WITH MY HEALTH" I DIDN'T REMEMBER YOU SAYING THAT BUT I THANK YOU.
NOT SURE WHY I EVEN RESPONDED TO YOU AS I'M WATCHING THE HAWAII GAME ON TV LOOKING FOR A 2-0 SWEEP ON SIDE AND TOTAL.
SHOULD HAVE PLAY UTAH TONIGHT AND YOU COULD BE 1-0 IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND NOT 0-1!!!! I KNOW THE BIG10 AND YOU LIVE IN ACC COUNTRY!!!
XS :modemman:
FOR THOSE THAT ARE NEW TO THE FORUM AND WOULD LIKE TO KNOW LAST YEARS NFL RECORD FOR 2014 IT IS POST WITH ALL MY PLAYS AND 100% ACCURATE FROM LAST YEARS 2014 NFL WINNING SEASON TREND.....
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=994904&page=21&highlight=2014+ncaa+football
MOST OF YOU HERE ARE WELL AWARE OF MY LOSING AND WINNING SEASONS, BUT FOR THOSE OF YOU AND CAN'T KEEP TRACK OF YOUR OWN LOSING RECORD (ROD F) THIS MAY HELP YOU OUT.....
YOU HAD A GREAT PRESEASON NFL RECORD ROD (GREAT FOR YOU AND YOU WILL ALWAYS REMEMBER YOUR FIRST) BUT YOUR NOT THE ONLY THAT DID THAT WELL OR BETTER, IN FACT GREENBACK2 WENT (38-10-2) AND YOU DON'T SEE HIM ACTING LIKE A CHILD DO YOU?
NOW LETS SEE HOW YOU DO IN THE REGULAR SEASON!
I'M NOT SELLING PICK AND IF I WAS, I WOULD BE HONEST WITH ALL MY MEMBERS AND NOT MAKE UP STORIES ABOUT WINNING XXXX AMOUNTS OF CASH WHEN YOU AND ALL OF US KNOW THAT IS NOT THE CASE!
WERE ALL WAITING FOR YOU TO PROVE YOU STATEMENT ABOUT A WINNING SEASON..... TOOK ME 30 MINUTES TO GO THRU YOU FOOTBALL AND BASKETBALL TRENDS, AND WE ALL KNOW THAT BASEBALL IS YOUR BEST SPORT AND WAITING ON THAT UPDATE AS WELL.
SAW ONE OF YOUR POSTS BRAGGING ABOUT PAGE VIEWS...... YOUR NFL TREND (FROM 2001-2015) HAS #484,850 AND YOUR MLB TREND (FROM 2013-2015) HAS #78,052...... DO YOU FIGURE THAT EACH VIEW YOU GET YOU CAN ADD $2 TO YOUR SEASON RECORD??? THAT WOULD PUT YOU CLOSE TO THE YOUR MADE UP $800,000 NUMBER.
AND OF THOSE VIEWS NOT ONE OF THEM HAS EVER SAID ANYTHING ABOUT ME MAKING UP YOUR RECORD!!!! NOT ONE!!! AND I EVEN SAW ONE POST BY YOU SAYING "THANKS XS FOR HELPING ME WITH MY RECORD I'M NOT DOING WELL WITH MY HEALTH" I DIDN'T REMEMBER YOU SAYING THAT BUT I THANK YOU.
NOT SURE WHY I EVEN RESPONDED TO YOU AS I'M WATCHING THE HAWAII GAME ON TV LOOKING FOR A 2-0 SWEEP ON SIDE AND TOTAL.
SHOULD HAVE PLAY UTAH TONIGHT AND YOU COULD BE 1-0 IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND NOT 0-1!!!! I KNOW THE BIG10 AND YOU LIVE IN ACC COUNTRY!!!
XS :modemman:
I'm not sure what's really going on Here and through the RX forums lately. But You and a couple of others need to tone it down.
This is not a Pissing Match ...
Going to check your Threads and see what the deal is there as well. and Prefer you stay out of Other peoples threads with this stuff.
Thanks
I'll make is easy for you, here is what I said:
"I see no problem with selling pick...... But all this BS about winning amounts that are not true give a bad name to those that can make an honest living being honest. I'm sure he has his followers, and not ONE person in the last 12 years has said one positive time about money won..... To be continued"
I also said this:
"I have been a member of this forum for a long time and would have to say (my honest opinion) that since you post all your plays in one trend prove to us all that you had a profitable season in ANY sport? I can remember that you had ONE great NFL Football Season and a ONE good NCAA Basketball Season since 2004 and that's it!!! You didn't post for two years and since no one bought your plays, you started posting again???
I have been around since 2004 and I know all to trick and stories...... it's ok to have losing seasons my friend (like most of us here they happen) and I can say that I have had my fair share of bad one's as well.
Great start to the NFL Preseason this year..... long season ahead us all..... if you don't want to track your own pick that you plays Vols or Oldhouse Tim will do it for you.
Should be pretty easy my friend?
XS @)"
I have done nothing wrong..... according to the RX policy and I quote one of the RX Team mods & Owners:
If Rod wants to sell play I have no problem with that or it he decided to leave so be it..... Lots of us are sick and tired of the same story year after year about record and the hundreds of thousands he was made everyone here when the records kept by Vols & Oldhouse Tim are sport on accurate.
I asked a simple question because I know and he knows that he can not prove the things that he is saying. He currently was over 5 trends (and they all say the same thing "Theerodfather of sports goes 8-2 in the nfl pre-season winning $ 12,000.00--- 80%" ..... ok I thing we get the message Rod had a great Preseason hear is you sign????
We all have our good and bad season and I for one have had some big up's and down just these last three years. One simple question has lead to this and honesty is the best police. Hope I didn't miss anything I'm getting ready for work and will not be around most of the day. Thank you for your time and sorry for the misunderstanding.
XS
Yes, saw the other threads. and Told him down in the Site Promotions thread that if this is what he's doing, then he's done posting in the Regular Sports forums.
He made his deal with Wil back then, and that same deal ( if he NOT promoting ) will continue.
So if he's here to grab Customers, then he will be banned from our Regular Sub Forums. Very simple..
and if he doesn't like Vols or Tim keeping track of his Plays/Record .. then he can leave.
Momentum has reverse effect when it comes to betting NFL Week 1 pointspreads by covers
One of my favorite football writers is Bill Barnwell at Grantland, whose major pet peeve is the idea of momentum. A few years ago, he looked at whether or not momentum between two seasons existed. That is, whether how a team finished one season carried over to the start of the next.
He found that after controlling for team strength, there is no effect at all of momentum carrying over. Of course, people still believe in momentum, with fans of the Steelers (4-0 in their last four games) and Vikings (win over Bears in Week 17) having high hopes for the upcoming season.
I decided to do a follow up on Barnwell's study, but focusing on how a team's record against the spread (ATS) at the end of one season translated into ATS performance at the beginning of the next.
To do this, I looked at each team's last four games of the regular season, going back to the 1985 season (the earliest season for which we have data). I then calculated the percentage of times that the team covered the spread in those last four games where the game wasn't a push. For example, the New England Patriots went 2-2 ATS in their last four games, or 50 percent, and the Indianapolis Colts went 1-2 ATS with one game that was a push, or 33 percent.
I then looked at how these teams did in their first game of the new season. Below is a table showing the relationship between a team's ATS percentage for the final four games with those teams’ corresponding percent chance of covering the spread in Week 1, along with the number of teams in that category.
As you can see, teams who did worse against the pointspread at the end of one season did better against the spread during the first week of the next, while it was the opposite for teams who covered the spread often in the final few weeks. If we plot these points, we get a chart that looks like this:
Seeing this, the negative relationship is fairly apparent. Despite the nice line however, the relationship isn't quite significant: running a logistic regression on whether a team will cover the spread in Week 1 (looking only at games that didn't push) the variable containing the team's percentage ATS during the final four weeks of the previous season has a p-value of only 0.13.
Still, this is pretty good considering there are many other differences between teams that we aren't attempting to control for: whether a team has changed coaches, whether they had a new quarterback, whether they had a lot of roster turnover. These things would certainly affect the spread, and might alter how betters perceive a team's momentum.
The fact that teams that had a lot of success at the end of one season do poorly at the beginning of the next is a due to regression to the mean combined with the public not understanding this. As Barnwell proved, a team that finishes strong does not perform significantly better at the start of next season - there is no evidence of momentum. But, for some teams at least, the betting public believes that the team's form will continue into the next season, leading to the relationship that we see.
It should be emphasized again that this relationship is very slight, as expressed by the not-quite-significant p-value. To put it into terms of money, however, if you had had bet against the 54 teams that had not lost a game ATS in their final four games of the previous season you would have won 30 of those bets. If you bet $1 on each game, with 5 percent vig, you would have made a total of $4.57, for a return of a little over 8 percent. Betting on teams who had underperformed at the end of the previous season would net you only a little more, with a return of just over 12 percent.
So you shouldn't blindly base all your bets on how a team did in the past few games of the previous season, especially when the team itself changed a lot. Then the public may no longer think they have momentum, but it has been profitable and useful to keep this information in mind.
If you were wondering which teams you want to be wary/enthusiastic about for Week 1 of this NFL season, there are three teams that were undefeated against the spread in the last four weeks of the 2014 season, and another three that didn't cover the spread once. The teams without a win are Miami, San Francisco and Tennessee, while Pittsburgh, Seattle and Dallas were perfect ATS down the stretch. Keep an eye on them.
One last note is that one very obvious expansion of this post would be to look to see if there is this effect during the season as well. For example, if a team goes on a four game run relative to expectations (i.e. doesn't lose against the spread once) will that team have too high of expectations in its next game? An idea for a future post, perhaps?
One of my favorite football writers is Bill Barnwell at Grantland, whose major pet peeve is the idea of momentum. A few years ago, he looked at whether or not momentum between two seasons existed. That is, whether how a team finished one season carried over to the start of the next.
He found that after controlling for team strength, there is no effect at all of momentum carrying over. Of course, people still believe in momentum, with fans of the Steelers (4-0 in their last four games) and Vikings (win over Bears in Week 17) having high hopes for the upcoming season.
I decided to do a follow up on Barnwell's study, but focusing on how a team's record against the spread (ATS) at the end of one season translated into ATS performance at the beginning of the next.
To do this, I looked at each team's last four games of the regular season, going back to the 1985 season (the earliest season for which we have data). I then calculated the percentage of times that the team covered the spread in those last four games where the game wasn't a push. For example, the New England Patriots went 2-2 ATS in their last four games, or 50 percent, and the Indianapolis Colts went 1-2 ATS with one game that was a push, or 33 percent.
I then looked at how these teams did in their first game of the new season. Below is a table showing the relationship between a team's ATS percentage for the final four games with those teams’ corresponding percent chance of covering the spread in Week 1, along with the number of teams in that category.
As you can see, teams who did worse against the pointspread at the end of one season did better against the spread during the first week of the next, while it was the opposite for teams who covered the spread often in the final few weeks. If we plot these points, we get a chart that looks like this:
Seeing this, the negative relationship is fairly apparent. Despite the nice line however, the relationship isn't quite significant: running a logistic regression on whether a team will cover the spread in Week 1 (looking only at games that didn't push) the variable containing the team's percentage ATS during the final four weeks of the previous season has a p-value of only 0.13.
Still, this is pretty good considering there are many other differences between teams that we aren't attempting to control for: whether a team has changed coaches, whether they had a new quarterback, whether they had a lot of roster turnover. These things would certainly affect the spread, and might alter how betters perceive a team's momentum.
The fact that teams that had a lot of success at the end of one season do poorly at the beginning of the next is a due to regression to the mean combined with the public not understanding this. As Barnwell proved, a team that finishes strong does not perform significantly better at the start of next season - there is no evidence of momentum. But, for some teams at least, the betting public believes that the team's form will continue into the next season, leading to the relationship that we see.
It should be emphasized again that this relationship is very slight, as expressed by the not-quite-significant p-value. To put it into terms of money, however, if you had had bet against the 54 teams that had not lost a game ATS in their final four games of the previous season you would have won 30 of those bets. If you bet $1 on each game, with 5 percent vig, you would have made a total of $4.57, for a return of a little over 8 percent. Betting on teams who had underperformed at the end of the previous season would net you only a little more, with a return of just over 12 percent.
So you shouldn't blindly base all your bets on how a team did in the past few games of the previous season, especially when the team itself changed a lot. Then the public may no longer think they have momentum, but it has been profitable and useful to keep this information in mind.
If you were wondering which teams you want to be wary/enthusiastic about for Week 1 of this NFL season, there are three teams that were undefeated against the spread in the last four weeks of the 2014 season, and another three that didn't cover the spread once. The teams without a win are Miami, San Francisco and Tennessee, while Pittsburgh, Seattle and Dallas were perfect ATS down the stretch. Keep an eye on them.
One last note is that one very obvious expansion of this post would be to look to see if there is this effect during the season as well. For example, if a team goes on a four game run relative to expectations (i.e. doesn't lose against the spread once) will that team have too high of expectations in its next game? An idea for a future post, perhaps?
NFL Opening Line Report: by covers
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4)
Two of the last three AFC champions collide in this Sunday matchup, with both teams holding high hopes for the 2015 season. And as much as two perennial playoff contenders can, Lester says the Ravens (11-7 SU, 9-8-1 ATS in 2014) and Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) are perhaps a little overlooked, and he likes the visitor in this contest.
“Here we have two very good teams that seem to be flying under the radar a bit, Baltimore more so than Denver,” Lester said. “I expect our sharper clients will let the public drive this spread up even further than it’s moved thus far, and then take a shot with the Ravens. They are very live dogs, in my opinion.”
Avello expects a good game but seems to have a bit more faith in Denver.
“The Broncos have only two home losses in the last three years and therefore one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL,” he said. “They may not be as strong offensively as they have been in the past, but may have their best defense during Manning’s tenure in Denver. “The Ravens always put a quality team on the field but have traditionally been slow starters.”
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5)
Bettors get a clash of NFC East rivals right out of the gate, and in the Sunday night prime-time spotlight, no less. New York was a dismal 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS last year, while Dallas reached the second round of the playoffs in going 13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS. Avello expects more Cowboys money on this game in the coming days.
“New York Giants fans like myself haven’t had a lot to root for the past two years, and this season, at least on paper, doesn’t look that promising. Eli Manning has been inconsistent over that time period, and the offensive line probably plays a big part in that,” Avello said. “The Cowboys, who are coming off their best season in a decade, should compete for at least the division title. They’ve beaten the Giants four straight, and I expect the money will show up on them come Sunday night.”
Lester, who pegged the Cowboys a 6-point chalk, echoed Avello’s sentiments
“Some people believe in the Giants this year, but I am not one of them. The defense is a glaring concern,” he said. “This number seems about right, and the minimal line movement over the last couple of months has supported that. The Cowboys are the most public team we have.”
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams
The Seahawks (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS in 2014) have been to the past two Super Bowls, and if not for a horrible play call, they’d be the two-time defending champions. But they start the season with an NFC West road game against what is expected to be an improved Rams squad (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2014). That said, Lester still finds the number curiously low.
“Bettors who have any sense are going to look at this line and see that it reeks of fish stench,” Lester said. “St. Louis usually plays Seattle tough (3-0 ATS last three at home), and Rams coach Jeff Fisher should be preaching to his players that this is a statement game to start the season. The squares will be all over Seattle at this short price.”
Avello, who put Seattle at -4, also expects the Fisher-led rams to make this interesting.
“St Louis stayed competitive in 2013 and ‘14 after losing quarterback Sam Bradford, and I attribute much of that to Coach Fisher, because I believe he’s one of the best in the league,” Avello said. “In the last three meetings at St Louis, the Rams have won twice and lost the third by five points, so going to Missouri hasn’t been a cakewalk for the Seahawks.
“Seattle will certainly be in the hunt to win it all again, but we’re talking Game No. 1 of the season here.”
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4)
Two of the last three AFC champions collide in this Sunday matchup, with both teams holding high hopes for the 2015 season. And as much as two perennial playoff contenders can, Lester says the Ravens (11-7 SU, 9-8-1 ATS in 2014) and Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) are perhaps a little overlooked, and he likes the visitor in this contest.
“Here we have two very good teams that seem to be flying under the radar a bit, Baltimore more so than Denver,” Lester said. “I expect our sharper clients will let the public drive this spread up even further than it’s moved thus far, and then take a shot with the Ravens. They are very live dogs, in my opinion.”
Avello expects a good game but seems to have a bit more faith in Denver.
“The Broncos have only two home losses in the last three years and therefore one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL,” he said. “They may not be as strong offensively as they have been in the past, but may have their best defense during Manning’s tenure in Denver. “The Ravens always put a quality team on the field but have traditionally been slow starters.”
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5)
Bettors get a clash of NFC East rivals right out of the gate, and in the Sunday night prime-time spotlight, no less. New York was a dismal 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS last year, while Dallas reached the second round of the playoffs in going 13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS. Avello expects more Cowboys money on this game in the coming days.
“New York Giants fans like myself haven’t had a lot to root for the past two years, and this season, at least on paper, doesn’t look that promising. Eli Manning has been inconsistent over that time period, and the offensive line probably plays a big part in that,” Avello said. “The Cowboys, who are coming off their best season in a decade, should compete for at least the division title. They’ve beaten the Giants four straight, and I expect the money will show up on them come Sunday night.”
Lester, who pegged the Cowboys a 6-point chalk, echoed Avello’s sentiments
“Some people believe in the Giants this year, but I am not one of them. The defense is a glaring concern,” he said. “This number seems about right, and the minimal line movement over the last couple of months has supported that. The Cowboys are the most public team we have.”
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams
The Seahawks (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS in 2014) have been to the past two Super Bowls, and if not for a horrible play call, they’d be the two-time defending champions. But they start the season with an NFC West road game against what is expected to be an improved Rams squad (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2014). That said, Lester still finds the number curiously low.
“Bettors who have any sense are going to look at this line and see that it reeks of fish stench,” Lester said. “St. Louis usually plays Seattle tough (3-0 ATS last three at home), and Rams coach Jeff Fisher should be preaching to his players that this is a statement game to start the season. The squares will be all over Seattle at this short price.”
Avello, who put Seattle at -4, also expects the Fisher-led rams to make this interesting.
“St Louis stayed competitive in 2013 and ‘14 after losing quarterback Sam Bradford, and I attribute much of that to Coach Fisher, because I believe he’s one of the best in the league,” Avello said. “In the last three meetings at St Louis, the Rams have won twice and lost the third by five points, so going to Missouri hasn’t been a cakewalk for the Seahawks.
“Seattle will certainly be in the hunt to win it all again, but we’re talking Game No. 1 of the season here.”
| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks (EARLY LOOK AHEAD)[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Thursday, September 10, 2015 | |||||||
| 8:30pm odds | (461) Pittsburgh Steelers (462) New England Patriots | 4576 8456 |
| 1726 2261 |
| O4196 U2515 |
|
| Sunday, September 13, 2015 | |||||||
| 1:00pm odds | (463) Green Bay Packers (464) Chicago Bears | 10980 1882 |
| 2589 938 |
| O2808 U3058 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (465) Kansas City Chiefs (466) Houston Texans | 3646 5849 |
| 1590 713 |
| O1533 U2792 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (467) Cleveland Browns (468) New York Jets | 1454 3743 |
| 578 663 |
| O833 U1979 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (469) Indianapolis Colts (470) Buffalo Bills | 8271 2393 |
| 1696 993 |
| O2038 U2852 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (471) Miami Dolphins (472) Washington Redskins | 7605 1364 |
| 1517 686 |
| O1562 U2575 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (473) Carolina Panthers (474) Jacksonville Jaguars | 1992 1172 |
| 383 264 |
| O573 U1301 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (475) Seattle Seahawks (476) St. Louis Rams | 7202 2475 |
| 1648 750 |
| O1157 U3205 |
|
| 4:05pm odds | (477) New Orleans Saints (478) Arizona Cardinals | 2022 5529 |
| 996 758 |
| O1890 U1670 |
|
| 4:05pm odds | (479) Detroit Lions (480) San Diego Chargers | 1488 2946 |
| 481 454 |
| O1577 U780 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (481) Tennessee Titans (482) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1183 1545 |
| 323 171 |
| O646 U1028 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (483) Cincinnati Bengals (484) Oakland Raiders | 5681 2772 |
| 1017 943 |
| O2110 U1661 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (485) Baltimore Ravens (486) Denver Broncos | 2162 2667 |
| 390 706 |
| O1133 U1419 |
|
| 8:30pm odds | (487) New York Giants (488) Dallas Cowboys | 1942 1964 |
| 434 453 |
| O1472 U752 |
|
| Monday, September 14, 2015 | |||||||
| 7:10pm odds | (489) Philadelphia Eagles (490) Atlanta Falcons | 4987 3716 |
| 1409 700 |
| O3013 U1169 |
|
| 10:20pm odds | (491) Minnesota Vikings (492) San Francisco 49ers | 7124 2978 |
| 1876 562 |
| O2862 U1740 |
|
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Steelers at Patriots by covers
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 52)
There promises to be a festive atmosphere at Gillette Stadium when the New England Patriots open defense of their Super Bowl championship by hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night in the kickoff to the NFL season. Not only will the Patriots celebrate their Super Bowl victory during a pregame ceremony, but fans of the team are still rejoicing after a federal judge overturned quarterback Tom Brady's four-game suspension.
The Deflategate saga and the possibility of three-time Super Bowl MVP Brady missing the first four games of the season had cast a pall over New England before Commissioner Roger Goodell's suspension was thrown out in court last week. The Patriots own a 15-1 record at home over the past two seasons, but they face a tough test against the reigning AFC North champion Steelers, whose 41 wins on Kickoff Weekend rank No. 1 among AFC teams. "We are excited about the quick transition and for our opener on Thursday night," Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said. "We are ready to play ball Thursday night and to get this season going." The Steelers will be missing an integral part of their offense as star running back Le'Veon Bell serves the first of a two-game suspension.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened -2.5 before that moved to -7 after Tom Brady's suspension was overturned. The total opened at 48.5 and now sits at 52.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 75 percent chance of thunderstorms with temperatures in the high-60s.
INJURY REPORT: Steelers - DE Stephon Tuitt (Questionable, ankle), WR Martavis Bryant (Eligible Week 5), RB Le'Veon Bell (Eligible Week 3). Patriots - C Bryan Stork (Out, concussion), LB Dont'a Hightower (Questionable, shoulder), RB LaGarrette Blount (Eligible Week 2).
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Patriots have won the AFC East title six straight years and in eleven of the last twelve years overall. New England’s defense was solid last season, but shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis left for the Jets in free agency, and his loss will have a big impact on the Patriots’ defense. Fortunately for New England, QB Tom Brady’s suspension was overturned, and he will play in this game. Pittsburgh squeezed into a playoff spot last season, but they’ll be hard-pressed to return to the post-season in 2015. The Steelers are an old and aging team with a defense that needs a major makeover. Pittsburgh somehow went 6-1 versus winning teams despite a mediocre defense that allowed 368 points during the season. Pittsburgh snapped a 2-year playoff drought last season, but they’ll likely revert back to a non-playoff season in 2015." Covers Expert Steve Merril.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "When we put this game back on the board we made the Patriots 7-point chalk. After taking a wiseguy wager on Pittsburgh we moved to -6.5. That number lasted a few days and has bounced around between it and a touchdown since. We're split on the side as far as handle but certainly we've taken more bets on the Pats as the public is getting geared up for Week 1. The total has crept up from our open of 50.5, which is expected with a pair of high-profile offenses on national TV. We haven't had much interest in the total outside of mainstream players." John Lester, BookMaker.eu.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-1.25) + Patriots (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -7.25
ABOUT THE STEELERS (2014: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Pittsburgh featured the NFL's second-ranked offense last season and a big reason was the talents of Bell, who ranked second in the league with 1,361 rushing yards and added 83 receptions for 854 yards. With former Carolina back D'Angelo Williams set to spell Bell, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will likely take to the air as he looks to build upon a stellar campaign in which he established a career best in passing yardage (4,952) while throwing for 32 touchdowns versus only nine interceptions. Roethlisberger has the league's most productive wideout in Antonio Brown, who topped the league in receptions (129) and yards (1,698) while becoming only the fourth player in league history to post consecutive seasons with at least 110 catches. Longtime defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau resigned in the offseason and was replaced by Keith Butler, who must shore up a unit that ranked among bottom fourth of the league in sacks, interceptions and passing yards surrendered.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2014: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): New England will also be without its top running back due to the one-game suspension for LeGarrette Blount who, ironically, was a member of the Steelers and a passenger in Bell's car when the duo was arrested on marijuana charges during the 2014 preseason. Brandon Bolden is expected to get the start while James White, Dion Lewis and Travaris Cadet may also see time in the backfield, but the focus for the Steelers will be shutting down Brady and behemoth tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brady threw for 33 TDs against only nine interceptions last season and more than a third of those scoring passes (12) went to Gronkowski, who had 82 receptions for 1,124 yards while reaching double digits in touchdowns for the fourth time in five seasons. The Patriots suffered a huge blow in the secondary with the loss of both of their starting cornerbacks in the offseason, including all-world Darrelle Revis, leaving Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler atop the depth chart at that position.
TRENDS:
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New England.
* Over is 6-1 in Patriots last seven Thursday games.
* Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in September.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of Covers users are backing the Patriots.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 52)
There promises to be a festive atmosphere at Gillette Stadium when the New England Patriots open defense of their Super Bowl championship by hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night in the kickoff to the NFL season. Not only will the Patriots celebrate their Super Bowl victory during a pregame ceremony, but fans of the team are still rejoicing after a federal judge overturned quarterback Tom Brady's four-game suspension.
The Deflategate saga and the possibility of three-time Super Bowl MVP Brady missing the first four games of the season had cast a pall over New England before Commissioner Roger Goodell's suspension was thrown out in court last week. The Patriots own a 15-1 record at home over the past two seasons, but they face a tough test against the reigning AFC North champion Steelers, whose 41 wins on Kickoff Weekend rank No. 1 among AFC teams. "We are excited about the quick transition and for our opener on Thursday night," Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said. "We are ready to play ball Thursday night and to get this season going." The Steelers will be missing an integral part of their offense as star running back Le'Veon Bell serves the first of a two-game suspension.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened -2.5 before that moved to -7 after Tom Brady's suspension was overturned. The total opened at 48.5 and now sits at 52.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 75 percent chance of thunderstorms with temperatures in the high-60s.
INJURY REPORT: Steelers - DE Stephon Tuitt (Questionable, ankle), WR Martavis Bryant (Eligible Week 5), RB Le'Veon Bell (Eligible Week 3). Patriots - C Bryan Stork (Out, concussion), LB Dont'a Hightower (Questionable, shoulder), RB LaGarrette Blount (Eligible Week 2).
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Patriots have won the AFC East title six straight years and in eleven of the last twelve years overall. New England’s defense was solid last season, but shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis left for the Jets in free agency, and his loss will have a big impact on the Patriots’ defense. Fortunately for New England, QB Tom Brady’s suspension was overturned, and he will play in this game. Pittsburgh squeezed into a playoff spot last season, but they’ll be hard-pressed to return to the post-season in 2015. The Steelers are an old and aging team with a defense that needs a major makeover. Pittsburgh somehow went 6-1 versus winning teams despite a mediocre defense that allowed 368 points during the season. Pittsburgh snapped a 2-year playoff drought last season, but they’ll likely revert back to a non-playoff season in 2015." Covers Expert Steve Merril.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "When we put this game back on the board we made the Patriots 7-point chalk. After taking a wiseguy wager on Pittsburgh we moved to -6.5. That number lasted a few days and has bounced around between it and a touchdown since. We're split on the side as far as handle but certainly we've taken more bets on the Pats as the public is getting geared up for Week 1. The total has crept up from our open of 50.5, which is expected with a pair of high-profile offenses on national TV. We haven't had much interest in the total outside of mainstream players." John Lester, BookMaker.eu.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-1.25) + Patriots (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -7.25
ABOUT THE STEELERS (2014: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Pittsburgh featured the NFL's second-ranked offense last season and a big reason was the talents of Bell, who ranked second in the league with 1,361 rushing yards and added 83 receptions for 854 yards. With former Carolina back D'Angelo Williams set to spell Bell, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will likely take to the air as he looks to build upon a stellar campaign in which he established a career best in passing yardage (4,952) while throwing for 32 touchdowns versus only nine interceptions. Roethlisberger has the league's most productive wideout in Antonio Brown, who topped the league in receptions (129) and yards (1,698) while becoming only the fourth player in league history to post consecutive seasons with at least 110 catches. Longtime defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau resigned in the offseason and was replaced by Keith Butler, who must shore up a unit that ranked among bottom fourth of the league in sacks, interceptions and passing yards surrendered.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2014: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): New England will also be without its top running back due to the one-game suspension for LeGarrette Blount who, ironically, was a member of the Steelers and a passenger in Bell's car when the duo was arrested on marijuana charges during the 2014 preseason. Brandon Bolden is expected to get the start while James White, Dion Lewis and Travaris Cadet may also see time in the backfield, but the focus for the Steelers will be shutting down Brady and behemoth tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brady threw for 33 TDs against only nine interceptions last season and more than a third of those scoring passes (12) went to Gronkowski, who had 82 receptions for 1,124 yards while reaching double digits in touchdowns for the fourth time in five seasons. The Patriots suffered a huge blow in the secondary with the loss of both of their starting cornerbacks in the offseason, including all-world Darrelle Revis, leaving Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler atop the depth chart at that position.
TRENDS:
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New England.
* Over is 6-1 in Patriots last seven Thursday games.
* Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in September.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of Covers users are backing the Patriots.
| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Thursday, September 10, 2015 | |||||||
| 8:30pm odds | (461) Pittsburgh Steelers (462) New England Patriots | 8696 17194 |
| 3182 5078 |
| O8697 U4655 |
|
Thanks my friend will be a few easy blowout winner this week!!!!
