XSPower NFL 2014 - 2015 Football Side & Total Power Winners

[XSPower]

[h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks [/h]
Time	Teams	ATS	Moneyline	Total
(ET)		Picks	Percentage	Picks	Percentage	Picks	Percentage
Monday, November 10, 2014
8:30pm odds	(273) Carolina Panthers (274) Philadelphia Eagles	19454 36535	35% 65%	23366 19030	55% 45%	O21753 U12778	63% 37%

 

[XSPower]

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL / FOOTBALL SEASON (108-88) +$80,930

Here we go my friends.....

1st Half Wagers:

3000 Carolina +4 +100

5000 Carolina Under 24.5 -120

Full Game Wagers:

3000 Carolina ML +285

7000 Carolina +7 +102

5000 Carolina Under 48.5 -105

Good Luck,

XS

 

[fly73]

Bol, opposite on game, like the bird

 

[XSPower]

FOOTBALL SEASON (108-93) +$56,680

Couldn't have been more wrong in this one...... on to week 11 my friends..... I have a great feeling that the best has yet to come!!!!

1st Half Wagers:

3000 Carolina +4 +100 (Lost)

5000 Carolina Under 24.5 -120 (Lost)

Full Game Wagers:

3000 Carolina ML +285 (Lost)

7000 Carolina +7 +102 (Lost)

5000 Carolina Under 48.5 -105 (Lost)

Later,

XS

 

[XSPower]

Bol, opposite on game, like the bird

Great night for you old friend..... hope we match up on a few this week!!!! Hope you'll be posting your NBA & NCAA basketball plays this again this year. :toast:

 

[XSPower]

Thursday Night Football betting preview: Bills at Dolphins BY COVERS

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 42)

After suffering heart-breaking setbacks in their last outings, the Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills battle for playoff survival when they meet in Miami on Thursday night. The Dolphins dropped a narrow decision to Detroit on Sunday when Matt Stafford threw a touchdown pass with 29 seconds to play. The Bills blew a fourth-quarter lead of their own after a muffed a punt proved costly in a 17-13 loss to the Chiefs.

It is a crucial affair as both teams trail New England by two games in the AFC East standings. Including a 29-10 decision in Week 2, the Dolphins have lost three straight to the Bills, their longest losing streak since going 0-4 from 2006-07. Points could be tough to come by as Miami ranks fifth and Buffalo is seventh in total defense.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL.

LINE HISTORY: After opening the Dolphins at -5, the line has jumped back and forth between that number and -5.5, where it currently sits. The total opened at 42.5 and has moved down slightly to 42.

INJURY REPORT: Bills - WR Marcus Easley (questionable Thursday, knee), CB Ron Brooks (questionable Thursday, groin), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable Thursday, ribs). Dolphins - G Billy Turner (questionable Thursday, foot), CB Cortland Finnegan (questionable Thursday, neck), G Darren Colledge (questionable Thursday, back), TE Dion Sims (questionable Thursday, toe), LB Kelvin Sheppard (questionable Thursday, hip), LB Koa Misi (questionable Thursday, back).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 20 percent chance of rain at game time with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the low 70's with a five mile per hour wind blowing across the field.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Bills (-0.75) - Dolphins (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Dolphins -5.78

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Both of these teams are coming off disappointing blown opportunities last Sunday, as both led in the fourth quarter, only to eventually fall short. The Bills offense couldn't take advantage of terrific field position provided by the defense all afternoon long against Kansas City. This unit has been hot-and-cold for much of the season, and continues to rely on a running back by committee, although it did get some help with veteran Fred Jackson returning last week. The Dolphins have had a miserable time against the Bills recently, including a blowout loss in Buffalo earlier this season. They'll need to get going from a standing start this week, and I can't help but feel they're being asked to lay a couple of points too many. Home field advantage doesn't mean quite as much in a mid-November night game against a familiar divisional foe in my opinion." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-4, 4-5 ATS, 2-7 O/U): Hampered by groin injuries running back Fred Jackson returned from a two-game absence and totaled 49 yards from scrimmage and rookie sensation Sammy Watkins struggled against the Chiefs on Sunday. Watkins hauled in just 4-of-10 targets for 27 yards after amassing 279 yards his prior two games and he totaled 117 yards and a score in the team's first meeting. E.J. Manuel was under center for Buffalo when the Bills beat the Dolphins earlier in the season but Kyle Orton has completed 65.6 percent of his passes and is 3-2 since taking over.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (5-4, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U): Miami lost Knowshon Moreno to a season-ending ACL injury in the third week of the season. Since then Lamar Miller has excelled but he entered last week's game battling a shoulder injury and had five only touches for six total yards in the contest. Miller says he'll play on Thursday which will take some of the burden off improving quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has thrown 15 scoring passes and also become a threat with his legs rushing for 245 yards on the season.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Almost 58 percent of wagers are backing the Dolphins as 5.5-point favorites.

 

[XSPower]

Thursday Night Football

5000 Buffalo +4 -102

5000 Buffalo Under 42

xs

 

[XSPower]

Adding

2000 Buffalo ML +185

xs

 

[XSPower]

THURSDAY RESULTS (1-2) -$2,100 / FOOTBALL SEASON (109-95) +$54,580

Here are my results....

5000 Buffalo +4 -102 (Lost 9-22)

2000 Buffalo ML +185 (Lost 9-22)

5000 Buffalo Under 42 (Blowout Winner 31 Points)

Later,

XS

 

[XSPower]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11 BY JASON LOGAN

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3, 41.5)

Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien vs. Browns’ QB Brian Hoyer

Rarely do you have a head coach that knows this much about the opposing quarterback. But, in the case of Bill O’Brien and Brian Hoyer, the Browns QB might not be in the league if it wasn’t for the Texans’ skip.

O’Brien, the Patriots offensive coordinator in 2009, worked out Hoyer in East Lansing prior to that year’s draft. And when Hoyer went undrafted, it was O’Brien who gave him a shot at making New England’s roster. He worked alongside Hoyer as a backup to Tom Brady and credited his career to the Houston head coach when asked about their relationship this week.

But the lovefest will quickly get put aside when the whistle blows Sunday. The Texans desperately need a win – losing four of their last five – and O’Brien will have no qualms about sharing all of Hoyer’s strengths and especially his weaknesses with Houston’s defense, which thrives on turnovers. The Texans have 21 takeaways on the year, with 10 of those coming via interceptions.

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 42.5)

Seahawks’ third-down defense vs. Chiefs’ third-down offense

The Seahawks defense is a shell of its former Super Bowl self, especially when it comes to ushering opponents off the field. Last season, Seattle allowed foes to convert on only 34.92 percent of their third downs - 23.53 percent in the playoffs. That’s ballooned to 43.33 percent in 2014 – ranking 10th worst in the NFL.

The Chiefs possess the prototypical offense to breakdown the Seattle stop unit. Kansas City combines a potent ground game with a dink-and-dump passing attack from Alex Smith, who is also mobile enough to keep the chains moving with his legs.

Smith has slowly ushered the offense down the field by throwing underneath the coverage, hitting TEs Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano as well as WR Dwayne Bowe for big strikes on third downs. Kansas City is third in the NFL in converting on third down this season, with a 48.74 percent success rate, and is sixth in time of possession with an average TOP of 31:39.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5, 45.5)

Raiders’ red-zone efficiency vs. Chargers’ recent red-zone defense

The Silver and Black don’t get too many cracks at the end zone this season. But when the Raiders do sniff paydirt, they make the most out of it. Oakland leads the NFL in touchdown red-zone efficiency, putting up six points instead of settling for three 80 percent of the time.

The one hitch in that stat is that the Raiders have only been inside the 20-yard line just 15 times this season – scoring a TD on 12 of those opportunities. Oakland scored a touchdown on both of its trips to the red zone versus Denver last week and went 2 for 2 for two TDs in the red zone – both one-yard passes to Mychal Rivera – versus the Seahawks the week before.

San Diego is coming off the bye after losing three straight contests. The Bolts couldn’t stop opponents from scoring – no matter where on the field – giving up 95 totals points in that span. The Chargers watched Kansas City, Denver and Miami score nine combined red-zone touchdowns during this skid and rank dead last in red-zone TD defense, allowing foes to find paydirt on 70.83 percent of their trips inside the San Diego 20-yard line.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 57.3)

Patriots’ weakness to receiving RBs vs. Colts’ RB Ahmad Bradshaw

There will be plenty of big plays when Tom Brady and Andrew Luck get into a passing-game pissing contests on Sunday Night Football in Week 11. But it will be the short throws that could do the most damage as far as the Colts and Pats are concerned.

Indianapolis has one of the better pass-catching running backs in the NFL with Ahmad Bradshaw reeling in 34 catches for 293 yards and six TD catches. Those receiving scores put the veteran back on par with such top-tier WRs as Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Kelvin Benjamin, and Mike Wallace. New England knows all about Bradshaw, who posted 91 total yards of offense and a touchdown versus the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI – coincidentally inside Lucas Oil Stadium back in 2012.

New England has shown a weakness to receiving running backs this season. The Patriots allowed Denver RB Ronnie Hillman to catch seven balls for 47 yards and a score in Week 9, watched Chicago RB Matt Forte post 54 yards on six receptions and a TD in Week 8, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles scored two receiving touchdowns in Week 4, Vikings backup RB Matt Asiata scored a 25-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 2, and Dolphins RB Lamar Miller reeled in a four-yard TD pass in Miami’s season-opening upset over New England.

 

[XSPower]

How Fantasy Football is f#cking up your NFL bets BY JOE FORTENBAUGH

The rise of daily fantasy sports along with the existing popularity of season-long fantasy formats has created a plethora of information that can additionally be utilized when dissecting weekly point spreads in search of an edge against the sports books.

The problem, however, is separating the good information from the bad while making sure to prevent your fantasy football analysis from messing with your sports handicapping. Sure, Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers should roll up plenty of fantasy points against the Oakland Raiders, but does that mean the Bolts will cover a double-digit spread?

Here are four ways fantasy football is f#cking up your NFL bets:

Recency bias

The idea that the trends and patterns observed in the recent past will continue in the future.

Take Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers as an example. After throwing an NFL-record 12 touchdown passes against high-profile competition in the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens, many thought Big Ben and company would smash the lowly Jets and their abysmal pass defense in Week 10. After all, entering last Sunday’s showdown, no team in the National Football League had surrendered more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Jets.

But that’s not even close to how the situation unfolded, as sharper bettors realized the high probability of Pittsburgh overlooking a 1-8 Jets team that had dropped eight straight contests.

Recency bias serves to highlight the importance of weighing each game individually based on all factors rather than what you've watched over the last few weeks.

Confirmation bias

Defined as the tendency to search for, interpret or prioritize information in a way that confirms one’s beliefs of hypotheses.

The average fantasy owner and sports bettor is guilty of committing this mistake on a regular basis. You identify a favorable matchup and then scour the television and internet in search of “experts” who are thinking the same way that you are.

News flash: Las Vegas wasn't built on winners.

If everybody is saying one thing, more often than not you should be looking to take a contrarian approach. Remember back in Week 5 when the entire world predicted that the Cincinnati Bengals would roll into Foxborough and smash a Patriots team that had just lost 41-14 on national television in Kansas City?

How’d that work out for the Bengals?

Emotional bias

LeSean McCoy won you a fantasy championship in 2013, so you’re naturally feeling an attachment to the Philadelphia running back entering your 2014 draft.

Likewise, sports bettors who wagered on a team like the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10 - who came back from a 14-10 fourth quarter deficit against St. Louis to win 31-14 while covering the 7-point spread - will feel the same pull to financially back the franchise that just pulled off a small miracle to put some extra coin in their pockets.

There’s absolutely no room for emotion in this game. It’s been said many times before that bettors and fantasy owners should view teams and players as stocks while taking an ice-cold approach in their evaluations. Don’t let a lucky break or a big statistical performance suck you into a situation with little value or upside because you feel an emotional attachment to a team or player.

Misinterpreting the implications of inclement weather

It’s happened to the best of us. We’re watching one of the 2.7 million NFL preview shows on Sunday morning and the host cuts to a clip of snowfall or heavy rain in an NFL stadium scheduled to hold a game in less than an hour. So we yank all of our fantasy starters from those two respective teams out of the lineup and bet the under.

What happens next?

Well, take the Detroit-Philadelphia Week 14 match up from 2013 as an example. Playing in close to a foot of snow, the Lions and Eagles combined to roll up 54 points while Philly running back LeSean McCoy ran for 217 yards and two touchdowns.

When it comes to inclement weather, only one element matters and that’s wind speed in the neighborhood of 20 miles per hour or more. High winds can wreck havoc on a team’s passing attack, especially those quarterbacked by signal-callers with average arm strength.

 

[XSPower]

[h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks [/h]
Time	Teams	ATS	Moneyline	Total
(ET)		Picks	Percentage	Picks	Percentage	Picks	Percentage
Sunday, November 16, 2014
1:00pm odds	(451) Houston Texans (452) Cleveland Browns	6238 10903	36% 64%	1820 2497	42% 58%	O3729 U3584	51% 49%
1:00pm odds	(453) Minnesota Vikings (454) Chicago Bears	6195 10187	38% 62%	1598 2299	41% 59%	O3775 U3001	56% 44%
1:00pm odds	(457) Seattle Seahawks (458) Kansas City Chiefs	10922 8908	55% 45%	3506 1507	70% 30%	O4325 U3861	53% 47%
1:00pm odds	(459) Atlanta Falcons (460) Carolina Panthers	8656 4366	66% 34%	1441 1634	47% 53%	O3592 U2060	64% 36%
1:00pm odds	(461) Cincinnati Bengals (462) New Orleans Saints	5138 12221	30% 70%	1235 2975	29% 71%	O5842 U1247	82% 18%
1:00pm odds	(463) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (464) Washington Redskins	5153 6127	46% 54%	1355 1338	50% 50%	O2715 U2149	56% 44%
1:00pm odds	(465) Denver Broncos (466) St. Louis Rams	22420 3485	87% 13%	5589 1185	83% 17%	O7670 U2240	77% 23%
1:00pm odds	(467) San Francisco 49ers (468) New York Giants	13391 5215	72% 28%	2701 1698	61% 39%	O5575 U2009	74% 26%
4:05pm odds	(469) Oakland Raiders (470) San Diego Chargers	4449 8306	35% 65%	1492 1910	44% 56%	O3780 U1789	68% 32%
4:25pm odds	(455) Philadelphia Eagles (456) Green Bay Packers	5347 18507	22% 78%	2833 3394	45% 55%	O8186 U2321	78% 22%
4:25pm odds	(471) Detroit Lions (472) Arizona Cardinals	8096 7014	54% 46%	2169 1490	59% 41%	O3792 U3098	55% 45%
8:30pm odds	(473) New England Patriots (474) Indianapolis Colts	13767 6169	69% 31%	4212 1179	78% 22%	O7223 U2004	78% 22%
Monday, November 17, 2014
8:30pm odds	(475) Pittsburgh Steelers (476) Tennessee Titans	6536 1493	81% 19%	1160 475	71% 29%	O1826 U1939	48% 52%

 

[jaxfactor]

BOL today bud!

 

[XSPower]

SUNDAY POWER FOOTBALL / FOOTBALL SEASON (109-95) +$54,580

Here we go my friends.....

3000 Houston +4 -107

7000 Seattle ML +103

5000 Atlanta -2.5 +100

5000 New Orleans -7.5 -105

7000 New Orleans Over 51 +100

5000 New York Giants Over 45 +102

Good Luck,

XS

 

[Heyoh!!]

damn good luck on all your action but Seattle. I should of waited.

 

[ballerhanz]

Love'em all except Houston. Good luck bromanski

 

[XSPower]

ADDING:

5000 Minnesota +2.5 +100

XS

 

[XSPower]

BOL today bud!

Thank you sir and good luck to you as well!!!

 

[XSPower]

damn good luck on all your action but Seattle. I should of waited.

No worries my friend...... good luck today as well!!!!

 

[XSPower]

Love'em all except Houston. Good luck bromanski

Have a pretty good feeling play on or against Houston this season...... and being a Steeler's fan love seeing teams in our division lose (Cleveland)..... good luck today my friend!!!!