Sunday's NCAAB betting cheat sheet: Elite Eight by covers
Michigan State Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals (+2.5, 128.5)
While other matchups in the Elite Eight feature some of the nation's best players, such as Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky and Kentucky's litany of future NBA draft picks, the East Regional final features a different kind of star-studded affair. Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Louisville's Rick Pitino are two of the best coaches in the country and after working their March magic yet again, their teams will square off in Syracuse, N.Y. on Sunday for a berth in the Final Four. The fourth-seeded Cardinals and seventh-seeded Spartans are the two lowest-seeded teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament.
After his team knocked off the region's No. 2 and 3 seeds in the last two rounds, Izzo is one win away from his seventh trip to the Final Four - all since 1999. "He is the best at what he does," Spartans guard Lourawls Nairn Jr. told reporters. "We're real confident in whatever he tells us to do. As long as we focus on what he tells us to do, we'll be fine." Regarding Pitino, who has been to seven Final Fours - one with Providence, three with Kentucky and three with Louisville, Cardinals forward Montrezl Harrell told reporters: "Everybody has bought into the mentality that Coach wanted and everybody wants the same goal."
TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS
LINE HISTORY: Most online books opened Louisville +2, but quickly moved the line to +2.5. The total opened at 128.5 and has yet to shift.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Louisville has been faded in every game since the tourney started and nothing has changed here. Michigan State’s run in the Big Ten tourney, as well as past pedigree, has made it a very public play throughout the Dance. About 75 percent of our bets are on the Spartans, and a lot of it is square money." - John Lester, Senior Lines Manager at Bookmaker.eu
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (26-11 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-15-2 O/U): Travis Trice has increased his scoring in all three games of the tournament, going from 15 points in the opener to 23 in an upset of second-seeded Virginia and 24 against Oklahoma, as the senior guard is shooting 10-of-22 from 3-point range in the Big Dance. The Spartans have reached the Elite Eight despite Denzel Valentine shooting 7-of-23 over the last two games and a disappointing team-wide 58.8 free-throw percentage in the tournament. "One more victory would be one of the more sweeter moments of my career," acknowledged Izzo, who is 12-9 in the NCAA Tournament when his team has the lower seed.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (27-8 SU, 13-19-2 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): The Cardinals dismissed Chris Jones - the team's third-leading scorer - from the team in late February but still are one win from their third Final Four trip in the last four seasons. The catalysts for Pitino's latest magical run have been Terry Rozier, who had 17 points and a career-high 14 rebounds in the Sweet 16, and Harrell, whose 24 points against the Sooners were his most since Feb. 11. "I can't say enough about him because he's the toughest guy I've ever coached and he never lets me down," Pitino said of Harrell, who is 12-of-14 from the foul line in the tournament after shooting 58.3 percent over the first 32 games.
TRENDS:
*Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
*Cardinals are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.
*Over is 7-3 in Spartans last 10 overall.
*Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 non-conference games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 60.06 percent of Covers users are backing Michigan State -2.5 with 56.7 percent on the under.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals (+2.5, 128.5)
While other matchups in the Elite Eight feature some of the nation's best players, such as Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky and Kentucky's litany of future NBA draft picks, the East Regional final features a different kind of star-studded affair. Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Louisville's Rick Pitino are two of the best coaches in the country and after working their March magic yet again, their teams will square off in Syracuse, N.Y. on Sunday for a berth in the Final Four. The fourth-seeded Cardinals and seventh-seeded Spartans are the two lowest-seeded teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament.
After his team knocked off the region's No. 2 and 3 seeds in the last two rounds, Izzo is one win away from his seventh trip to the Final Four - all since 1999. "He is the best at what he does," Spartans guard Lourawls Nairn Jr. told reporters. "We're real confident in whatever he tells us to do. As long as we focus on what he tells us to do, we'll be fine." Regarding Pitino, who has been to seven Final Fours - one with Providence, three with Kentucky and three with Louisville, Cardinals forward Montrezl Harrell told reporters: "Everybody has bought into the mentality that Coach wanted and everybody wants the same goal."
TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS
LINE HISTORY: Most online books opened Louisville +2, but quickly moved the line to +2.5. The total opened at 128.5 and has yet to shift.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Louisville has been faded in every game since the tourney started and nothing has changed here. Michigan State’s run in the Big Ten tourney, as well as past pedigree, has made it a very public play throughout the Dance. About 75 percent of our bets are on the Spartans, and a lot of it is square money." - John Lester, Senior Lines Manager at Bookmaker.eu
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (26-11 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-15-2 O/U): Travis Trice has increased his scoring in all three games of the tournament, going from 15 points in the opener to 23 in an upset of second-seeded Virginia and 24 against Oklahoma, as the senior guard is shooting 10-of-22 from 3-point range in the Big Dance. The Spartans have reached the Elite Eight despite Denzel Valentine shooting 7-of-23 over the last two games and a disappointing team-wide 58.8 free-throw percentage in the tournament. "One more victory would be one of the more sweeter moments of my career," acknowledged Izzo, who is 12-9 in the NCAA Tournament when his team has the lower seed.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (27-8 SU, 13-19-2 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): The Cardinals dismissed Chris Jones - the team's third-leading scorer - from the team in late February but still are one win from their third Final Four trip in the last four seasons. The catalysts for Pitino's latest magical run have been Terry Rozier, who had 17 points and a career-high 14 rebounds in the Sweet 16, and Harrell, whose 24 points against the Sooners were his most since Feb. 11. "I can't say enough about him because he's the toughest guy I've ever coached and he never lets me down," Pitino said of Harrell, who is 12-of-14 from the foul line in the tournament after shooting 58.3 percent over the first 32 games.
TRENDS:
*Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
*Cardinals are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.
*Over is 7-3 in Spartans last 10 overall.
*Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 non-conference games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 60.06 percent of Covers users are backing Michigan State -2.5 with 56.7 percent on the under.
